Cruz +3000, Cruz to win Iowa +200

he is 50% to win iowa, at worst. and after he wins iowa a +3000 is absurd for the #2.

how many winners do i need to share here before i get a thanks?

Thanks

can i get an rsig endorsement now

ship it Cruz

Nice call

don't give this attention whore any cred. look how late this got posted anyway. pinny and even bovada had all lines removed from their boards way before this was posted.

maybe he got lucky but seeing this post did remind me to check my Betfair position which was already heavily anti Donald (been digging a deeper and deeper hole for maybe 4 months) - layed a bunch more Donald after I read this post at about 2.04 - could sell him for nearly 4.00 a couple of hours later

somigosaden was available on bm when i posted. i know its hard for posters like you who can only spread out their $500 over a couple diff sites. ill try to post earlier for you next time.

good job unluckyboy. see wasnt that easier than modeling sides and totals?

Donald 4.80 and drifting on Betfair now

started laying at 7.00 (yuk) and layed him all the way down to average 4.10 - I am thinking hold all the way now but it is not my usual Betfair policy ?

i dont understand that terminology what does it mean for us americans?

what do you think odds of trump winning NH are?

decimal odds - so 4.00 is putting $1 on and getting back $4 when it wins - 1 chance in 4 or 3/1 or whatever it is in US odds that I cant be bothered figuring out

I layed Donald for the Republican nomination - so I filled offers to back him starting at 7.00 some months ago and kept on filling up offers to back him - my position got worse and worse because he was rated a better and better chance to win - currently the average of all that is I have a big bunch of Donald at 4.10

I can back Donald to win at any time and "balance" out my position - he has shortened overnight so I can back him at 4.30 and make a small profit currently - or I can just leave it all or I can target a place to get out

Juice is not an issue as I will only pay a small % on what I actually win playing in this market rather than for any one bet

It is uncommon for me to leave any punting on Betfair till the actual result unless I get better odds there than a regular book on something I really know all about (not US politics) - common sense and some general political nouse just reckons that Donald is a shooting star and that despite the rumours you people are not bat **** crazy

I read US politics so all I really know is that he is slated to go good in NH but the Betfair market isn't really stupid - Donald going good in NH will to some extent be factored into his current price so if he goes marginally worse than expectation in NH my position probably improves

trump should win NH, but i wouldn't want to lay -300 yet until we get some better post-IA polls rolling in over the weekend. trump will get a pretty consistent 20% to 35% of the vote depending on the demographics of each state. his main constituency are white males with less than a college degree. so if that demographic is large in the state he'll get closer to his ceiling of 35% of the vote.

in NH 2nd tier candidates of kasich/bush/christie will do marginally better which actually helps trump since it further fractures the vote along with cruz/rubio allowing trump's bloc of ~30% support to put him over the top.

Gave a guy +800 on felony indictment of Hillary. I put fair chance at around 5%.

how much do you want to book on that clemens? can i get some +1000?

i dunno i can get non-clinton +400 to be nominee now so it may be hard to bet indict at +1000 even. id have to think about it. but i personally think she may get indicted.

"Will a federal criminal charge be filed against Hillary Clinton in 2016?"

Prediction markets have the "Yes" around 33%. Do the Feds hand out misdemeanors?

link wamplerr? is this for a market with $50 in matched bets? it doesnt make sense that the odds of an indictment are higher than the odds of her losing.

polls look good for trump. he should win with around 30% of the vote due to a logjam in 2nd place. i'd be wary to lay more than say -350 (78% chance of winning) because something like one-third of voters there are still undecided. contrary to expectations in iowa, the record turn out did not help trump. trump's core voters are committed and have been for months (he could shoot someone and they'd still support him). in IA late deciders were less likely to break for trump. NH is also predicting a record voter turn out. if late deciders coalesce around a single leading candidate then trump could be in trouble.

actually trump will probably under-perform his polls again. come in around 24%-29% of the vote with his current ~30% support diluted by higher turn-out and undecideds not breaking his way.

Tommy Gee,

sshhhhh...

Love Always,

wiper

Got some friend of a friend to bet me at even money on the election, with the friend in the middle escrowing. Yes, I'm getting any Democrat to win the election at +100. Also took some easy money off a FB acquaintance when he insisted Rubio would win Iowa, and I subsequently offered him 5 to 1 odds.
Betting politics with square partisans is the best!

Yes, Patraeus got a misdemeanor for his email wrongdoings.

I'd put misdemeanor 5x more likely than felony. A felony charge would likely put Hillary out of the race and get Biden in.

Independent prosecutor is probably 100 to 1 but that would significantly change odds of a felony indictment.