Football (soccer) betting thread

[SnotBoogy]

Originally Posted by luegofuego

one important thing to note about that PSV -2/O3.0 and the other AH/O combination you have is that they are highly, highly correlated, as in if you win or lose one, you're likely to win or lose the other. so it's probably better to just pick one of them. and if you don't, you shouldn't follow your usual staking strategy.

I did halve those. Savers against 3-1 and 2-1

[luegofuego]

TakeHerOnACruise,

by the way, I did a quick calculation on it. Based off of the assumption that the Pinnacle line was correct, Chelsea scoring atleast once while Spartak doesn't score at all should have a fair line of 2.21. This obviously fails to take into effect a bunch of stuff like how goal distribution changes after a goal etc - its just based off of the goal expectancy of the two teams. But it should give you a good idea how a) ridiculously juiced those markets are and b) which option they place the most juice on. Chelsea to win to nil is probably an incredibly popular bet among casual punters.

[Achrilles]

city winning 2-0 or 3-0 tonight sounds good?

[SnotBoogy]

i would never bet any team to win to nil, ever, unless the odds were mega in my favor

any defense, no matter how good, can be expected to f up at least once per game

ask spain against switzerland

the worst would be if a team goes up like 5-0 and hten lets in a dumb goal cuz they dont care late

[clyro]

Good treble for tonight....just about to go do my research but wondering if anyone has any gems?

[TakeHerOnACruise]

Originally Posted by luegofuego

matter of fact, I was thinking while reading your post "why doesn't he just take Chelsea -1.5, that has way less vig and covers more fluke bull ****"

Yeah good point, would appreciate this input before the event in the future though.

Got 3 bets tonight:

Sporting to win @ 2.25
CSKA -1 handicap @ 2.25
Porto -1 handicap @ 1.95

[luegofuego]

Goddamn Porto lost me a lot of money tonight

[clyro]

Man City @ 13/8 looks good tonight imo


They have Tevez back whilst Man Utds attacking options aren't looking to great with Berbatov doubtful and Nani/Rooney out.

[dioforce]

Always wait for the United team-sheet before betting on them

[Achrilles]

nani could play

[luegofuego]

********* game I've seen in a while

with the exception of the game that I watched two hours earlier. Holy **** what a terrible day for entertaining footy

[clyro]

Scottish football was fun tonight

[Tract0rDan]

Weekend European football action:

NED (Sat) - Twente win at NAC @ 1.63
ENG (Sat) - Brentford beat MK Dons @ 2.26
ENG (Sat) - Chesterfield beat Burton @ 1.80

[kevin21]

The Chesterfield/Burton game interests me.

I got Chesterfield @ 4/5 which seems a really really good price considering how both sides are going this season. If Burton win then I will have my suspicions.

[kevin21]

And Burton take the lead