bw89 - never really had a proper look into it even though big odds props used to be my forte, kinda hard to calculate the interrelation for it.
Presumably you already had value on the first gs or the CS for it to be value on the SC?

LF - that's good news, can't believe you don't have a MB acc as it's definitely worth having. I don't pay any fee to deposit when I use online banking so I could definitely recommend it.

Moneybookers is good.

I pay fees to load it directly but not to use it to deposit to a site with my card through MB.

One warning - be careful with the currency you choose as it can't be changed once you set it up - mine is unfortunately in $ since I set it up back in my bonus whore days so I suffer a little currency risk on my balance and probable slippage when moving money between £ bookies that don't do debit cards.

I've only ever made sucker bets on scorecasts, but aside from the obvious value on CS / first goal markets I wonder if there any possible correlation between certain scorers and certain scores (eg if Alex Song scores first it's more likely to be a low scoring Arsenal win because it means the legit scorers are having bad days). That's probably idiot punter talk and even the slight chance it isn't is beyond my current database skills to test.

TFG - I emailed MB after withdrawing my balance and not using it for a couple of months and they agreed to close down my $ acc so I could open a £ acc.

AFAIK there are no fees if you use Ebanking or online banking to deposit,

it's just annoying with the forex fees. since you can't transfer from neteller to MB, i gotta withdraw from NT to my bank account, which is in SEK (2.75% fee or something ******ed with the buy/sell spread) and then back to euros for MB with a new fee. If anyone has some extra MB to trade for FT or Neteller, I'd be happy to do that, since I actually have a MB account.

I derive the CS simply from the market supremacy/total goals, work out the FGS myself though. Often it is indeed just the market underrating the player but sometimes the SC is just off for some reason or other, though this is rare.

Actually had thought about that but you could easily argue that Alex Song is just as likely to score first in a good performance than a bad as he could be getting more chances created for him. I imagine it's something that could be researched if you collected enough data - a lot of it mind. It's probably something I'll look into after the season's over.

Oh yeah I don't claim for a second my idea is anything more than a semi random thought. I was basically tossing ideas out there.

fwiw, I imagine there are quite a few games where defenders have a higher goal percentages than usual. I'd suspect other scenarios than that one though.

Argentina Nacional B - San Martin San Juan vs Aldosivi @ 4.6 at bet365 right now, value down to about 4.3 IMO

Argentina Primera A - Racing Club vs Quilmes @ 6 at Coral right now, value down to about 5.8 IMO.

Fingers crossed.

Champions League - Rangers vs Man Utd, Paddy Power 1.7

Champs league - Inter Milan vs FC Twente Boylesports 6

Champs league - Inter Milan vs FC Twente - bet Draw Victor 3.8

Champs League - Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Benfica - bet Draw Pinnacle 3.85

Italy Cup, Genoa vs Vicenza, Pinnacle 9.1

I mean the impressive thing about that isn't beating the CL handicapping, it's being a winner and still being allowed to play at boyles, paddy, etc.

My Boyle account is very new. Every week they allow me to cherrypick their weakest lines is another week I thank baby Jesus basically.

My paddy account is very old so has a pretty ugly history of sucker bets and when I stopped being an idiot a few months ago it was on the losing side of some big (at least relative to my normal bets) arbs. For now at least Paddy love me.

palermo is looking v v good and has been every time ive seen them... no idea why they've performed so relatively poorly. can a team be THAT much worse away really?

A lot of $$ coming in on Barca just before kickoff.

Just put a small 0.5u bet on the lolacticos @ 4.00

Ozil 1 tiiiiime :P

ofcourse eevery stream site on earth is down

why didn't i get the ****ing PPVVVVVVVVV

I've been limited to like 2€ bets on most markets on that site after a week. Also limited big on bet365, williamhill and stanjames most of these after like a week. 12bet which has great odds for football also has 250€ limit on everything.

lol 12bet doesn't have €250 limits. you can whack most soccer lines a TON of times without the line changing. I regularly whack 4x on early Bundesliga lines without moving it.

I think he means he got limited there.

Ipswich v West Brom

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85 with bet365

Quick one for tomorrow night. Both high scoring teams in their respective leagues. Both play open football and are prone to conceding just as easily as they score. Add in the Carling Cup factor where teams play with more freedom and i can't see this staying below 2.5.

I know you're not doing it on purpose but it is crazy typing out reasoning for 1.85 being value when Pinnacle clearly have it for 19/20 (1.943 actually)/SBO 1.94. It will be interesting to see what team WBA field since this is a tough match anyway and they must concentrate on the league. Defenders out = Overs, Strikers out = Unders. But this is all factored into the price

No Pinnacle - take your pick. The overs is pretty much 100% book as Betfair are going highest on the Unders.

http://odds.bestbetting.com/football...on/over-under/

Seriously Cruise, find an odds comparison site that you like there are about a hundred of them.

You're giving up massive value (in this case it's about a 2.5% hit to your ROI) by taking crappy lines all the time.

Yeah thanks for the input, i'll have to look for better odds in the future you're right.

Gazo, are you still posting in this thread?

Regards
A234

so yesterday me and a friend had a prop to increase the suspense in the boring as **** real - auxerre game. i offered him the whole Auxerre team, Ronaldo and Sammy Khedira in exchange for the other nine Real players in an even money prop on first goalscorer. Do you guys think it was fair?

nevermind the fact that khedira wasn't playing, we didn't know that and just wanted a gamble. just assume he was playing.