Also getting wind of Spartak having some key players out which can only help.

Chelsea v Spartak Moscow

Chelsea to win to nil @ 1.83 with bet365

Ok so i've looked into the game a bit more and i'm becoming a bit of a Chelsea fanboy lately (much to my shame).

Spotted the good old faithful win to nil and couldn't resist. Pretty much the reasoning being the same as above. Chelsea will dominate and Spartak are missing Ari and Parshivlyuk. Chelsea are very solid defensively obv and Spartak will be less capable of scoring without Ari.

FC Basel v AS Roma

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.86 with 1*****

Alright so probably the last one i like atm. Both teams have everything to play for here. Roma need a win to stay in control of their own fate and a win wouldn't do any harm to Basel's chances of qualifying for the next round for the first time ever.

The last game was very open and produced 4 goals with Basel winning 1-3. I'm not sure about the outcome of this game because i think Roma have more genuine quality than Basel but are suffering from bad form of late. Either way both teams will seek to win the game. Some might argue that Basel will play for the draw from a strategic point of view but i doubt they would at home and considering they beat Roma last time out.

Both teams are very capable of scoring and conceding and i think this should go over.

11 corners - Loss

Ok so you could argue this one didn't get close with the first half producing 9 corners. The bet looked to be over at half time and i felt a bit embarrased. But once Chelsea got their goals in the second half there was a real sweat on and we were unlucky with the corner coming right at the death to push it over 10. Felt pretty sick watching towards the end lol. Something clicked with my analysis also. Chelsea are pretty a high corners team until they get a comfortable lead, then they become the low corners spoilers i wanted them to be from the start. So at least i feel i've learnt something here and my analysis was wrong but now i know why exactly.

Chelsea 4 - 1 Spartak - Loss

Yeah pretty gross with Spartak stealing the late goal. They didn't really look like scoring at all apart from one decent shot by McGeady at the start. Think they scored with about 5mins to run. Pretty sick.

Ok so thankfully i won one tonight with roma doing the business here and both teams exchanging blows. Finishing Basel 2 3 Roma.

If anyone else followed the bets and watched the Chelsea game they could understand how sick that really was.

maybe you should stop taking ******** payouts at shady derivative markets when the main markets, who are based on the same thing, offer better odds?

matter of fact, I was thinking while reading your post "why doesn't he just take Chelsea -1.5, that has way less vig and covers more fluke bull ****"

Tottenham Hotspur at Pick -150 vs Bolton what do you think?

made some unimaginative and probably stupid bets for tomorrows europa games:

PSV -2, over 3
porto -1, over 2.5
leverkusen -1

all juiced to high hell, esp the leverkusen line. in fact, im embarrased to post what it is

one important thing to note about that PSV -2/O3.0 and the other AH/O combination you have is that they are highly, highly correlated, as in if you win or lose one, you're likely to win or lose the other. so it's probably better to just pick one of them. and if you don't, you shouldn't follow your usual staking strategy.

This. Your handicapping seems fine although I believe you will struggle to beat major markets with publicly available information, especially betting in the favourite-over direction.

However when you don't take the best price available for the result you're seeking (or the best result for the same price) you are setting fire to money.

An obvious example is that DNB = AH0, but off the top of my head - European handicap draw is the same as favourite to win by exactly X, 0-0 draw is the same as under 0.5, dutching the 1-0s is the same as under 1.5.

For luego's example - use the correct score market to work out the probability you are giving up on Chelsea 1-0 (the only win to nil result you are turning in to a loss) vs the value you are getting on 3-1, 4-1, 4-2 (may as well stop there). If those three combined has higher implied probability than 1-0 then Chelsea -1.5 is a better bet.

I did halve those. Savers against 3-1 and 2-1

TakeHerOnACruise,

by the way, I did a quick calculation on it. Based off of the assumption that the Pinnacle line was correct, Chelsea scoring atleast once while Spartak doesn't score at all should have a fair line of 2.21. This obviously fails to take into effect a bunch of stuff like how goal distribution changes after a goal etc - its just based off of the goal expectancy of the two teams. But it should give you a good idea how a) ridiculously juiced those markets are and b) which option they place the most juice on. Chelsea to win to nil is probably an incredibly popular bet among casual punters.

city winning 2-0 or 3-0 tonight sounds good?

i would never bet any team to win to nil, ever, unless the odds were mega in my favor

any defense, no matter how good, can be expected to f up at least once per game

ask spain against switzerland

the worst would be if a team goes up like 5-0 and hten lets in a dumb goal cuz they dont care late

Good treble for tonight....just about to go do my research but wondering if anyone has any gems?

Yeah good point, would appreciate this input before the event in the future though.

Got 3 bets tonight:

Sporting to win @ 2.25
CSKA -1 handicap @ 2.25
Porto -1 handicap @ 1.95

Goddamn Porto lost me a lot of money tonight

Man City @ 13/8 looks good tonight imo


They have Tevez back whilst Man Utds attacking options aren't looking to great with Berbatov doubtful and Nani/Rooney out.

Always wait for the United team-sheet before betting on them

nani could play

********* game I've seen in a while

with the exception of the game that I watched two hours earlier. Holy **** what a terrible day for entertaining footy

Scottish football was fun tonight

Weekend European football action:

NED (Sat) - Twente win at NAC @ 1.63
ENG (Sat) - Brentford beat MK Dons @ 2.26
ENG (Sat) - Chesterfield beat Burton @ 1.80

The Chesterfield/Burton game interests me.

I got Chesterfield @ 4/5 which seems a really really good price considering how both sides are going this season. If Burton win then I will have my suspicions.

And Burton take the lead