Football (soccer) betting thread - Page 28 - Sports Betting

I know this looks like resulting now that Real won, but I thought this and never got around to posting before the game. I put virtually no trust in statistics like this. There will always be crazy runs of wins and losses in sports just because they happen at random. 17 games without a win is a run a bit too long to be down to pure chance. The problem is, what relevance does a 1993 match between Madrid and Deportivo have to a match played today? The correct answer is zero. The teams don't share a single player in common, the coaching staff are likely all different, hell there probably aren't even many of the same fans going to the match. The argument that Deportivo have some psychological hex on Madrid I simply don't buy. The players are well aware it's just another game. So the run of 17 is unlikely to be down to pure chance - but whatever advantage Deportivo held over Real at some point in the past is also unlikely to still exist.

I agree that it is statistically insignificant. However, these records tend to be hyped-up by the press and in this case provide additional motivation to end the streak.

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01-31-2010 , 08:20 AM

#677

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Adebayor and Toure are back. MC just too strong vs one of the worst teams in the league. I have MC's excpected goal supremacy as a huge +2.2 for this fixture
My picks:
MC HT V Ports. 2u @ 1.77
MC-1 V Ports. 2u @ 1.75
>2.5gls MC V Ports 2u @ 1.79

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01-31-2010 , 08:40 AM

#678

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Dortmund+0.5 V Stuttgart 1u @ 1.78
<2.5gls Feyen. V Ajax (IP 54m 0-1) 1u @ 1.65

Last edited by thorntoc; 01-31-2010 at 08:47 AM.

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01-31-2010 , 09:33 AM

#679

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Milan HT V Livorno 2u @ 1.75
Dutch 2-0,3-0 Milan V Livorno risking approx 0.35u to win 1.1u
Cagliari V Fiorentina 1u @ 2.66
>2.5gls Cagliari V Fiorentina 1u @ 2.16
Catania V Udinese 1u @ 2.42
<1.5gls Catania V Udinese 1u @ 3.1

Last edited by thorntoc; 01-31-2010 at 10:00 AM.

Quote

01-31-2010 , 09:58 AM

#680

Gazo

adept

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 711

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisV

The fact Deportivo rise to the occasion for Real's visits and Real know this record exists adds a notable psychological aspect in favour of the home team's value imo, on top of the solid home form, injuries, suspended players etc etc. All in all, I saw a lot of value in Deportivo in a lot of markets. Some came off, some didn't (obviously)

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01-31-2010 , 10:58 AM

#681

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Arsenal V MU 1u @ 2.62
>2.5gls Arsenal V MU 1u @ 2.08

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01-31-2010 , 11:07 AM

#682

Rasputin420

banned

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,431

Ok, just for fun: United v arsenal .66 units @ 2.95

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01-31-2010 , 11:48 AM

#683

Wee-Bey

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 4,501

I hope you win sir!

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01-31-2010 , 12:11 PM

#684

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

Arsenal -128
o2.5 +120

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01-31-2010 , 12:54 PM

#685

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

not much happening in this one:
Ghana V Egypt DRAW (IP HT 0-0) 1u @ 2.34

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01-31-2010 , 01:03 PM

#686

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Tenerife V Zaragoza DRAW (IP HT 0-0) 1u @ 2.7
Getafe V Santander DRAW (IP HT 0-0) 1u @ 2.76

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01-31-2010 , 01:13 PM

#687

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Villareal+1 V Osasuna (IP 55m 0-1) 1u @ 2.05

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01-31-2010 , 01:34 PM

#688

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Malaga+0.5 V Ath.Madrid 1u @ 2.32
Valencia V Sevilla 1u @ 3.55
>2.5gls Sevilla V Valencia 1u @ 1.91

Last edited by thorntoc; 01-31-2010 at 01:45 PM.

Quote

01-31-2010 , 02:34 PM

#689

VillainUnknown

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 2,957

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gazo

Couldn't you literally write anything here concerning the two teams and have the same validity?

There is a negative story in the press about X, so he won't play 100%.

I saw an interview with the manager and he said they are really up for this game.

Last season Real lost to Deportivo in controversial circumstances, so now they are out for revenge.

etc etc.

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01-31-2010 , 04:26 PM

#690

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

What are you guys thoughts on which bookies have the most efficient lines and which the softest (excluding exchanges) for soccer markets?

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01-31-2010 , 04:28 PM

#691

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Corals had a ridiculous line on the over/under for sev/val. Under @ 1.9 and over @ 1.81.

Quote

02-01-2010 , 12:47 AM

#692

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gazo

The fact Deportivo rise to the occasion for Real's visits and Real know this record exists adds a notable psychological aspect in favour of the home team's value imo

Or perhaps the fact that this record is a thorn in the side of Real Madrid would spur them on to a better performance. The beauty of theories like this is that they're unfalsifiable in the absence of hard data. Most of the time, when there's hard data, it tends not to support big psychological influences on the result.

Quote

02-01-2010 , 03:31 PM

#693

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

All my indicators are pointing towards the under 2.5gls for Sund/Stoke.
10u @ 1.73

Quote

02-01-2010 , 04:52 PM

#694

Rasputin420

banned

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,431

Quote:

Originally Posted by thorntoc

All my indicators are pointing towards the under 2.5gls for Sund/Stoke.
10u @ 1.73

WoW , good luck sir!!!!

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02-01-2010 , 05:01 PM

#695

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

also 1u DRAW @ 2.44 (ip HT 0-0)

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02-01-2010 , 05:02 PM

#696

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rasputin420

WoW , good luck sir!!!!

ty.......so far so good!!

Quote

02-01-2010 , 06:00 PM

#697

Declan

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 17

Quote

02-01-2010 , 06:04 PM

#698

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

nice winning night after a couple losing days in a row.
2 for 2 tonight +8.4u

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02-01-2010 , 07:22 PM

#699

LT_21

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 335

preston 5/6
aberdeen 4/6

nice double for tomorrow also add these 2 with accrington stanley and colchester.

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02-02-2010 , 02:39 AM

#700

JermNZ

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 174

nice work thorntoc keep 'em coming!

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