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Old 08-12-2017, 06:45 PM   #6551
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

what a screwy opening week for EPL
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Old Yesterday, 06:01 AM   #6552
Join Date: Aug 2017
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Sporting moneyline and Liverpool over look interesting
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Old Yesterday, 10:21 AM   #6553
Join Date: May 2017
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Porto Asian Handicap -1,75 against Moreirense at odds 1,71 .Sunday at 6 PM in Estadio do Dragao(Porto)

According to my Power Ratings(each player in the starting lineup,squad,coach,suporters,league projection)this is a game between the slight Favourite for the title against the favourite to go down Moreirense at the moment.
Porto is looking scary at the moment winning every game in August 4-0 Deportivo Coruna(last friendly at home),away at Gil vicente(last friendly away a second division team 1-3) and in the Primeira Liga they won the first game against a middle table team Estoril Praia by 4-0 in a game they created plenty of clear goal scoring opportunities(10)and showed the new coach game model dynamic,of high pressure,strong reaction to disposession and they utterly dominated a good Estoril side but the gap between big 3 in Portugal(Benfica,Porto,Sporting) and smaller teams is immense much like in Spain
Last Sunday they won away by 1-0 at Tondela a relegation team candidate,but with much more quality than Moreirense and to be honest home and away performances usually in Portugal for the Big 3 are quite redundant.
One aspect that strikes me also in this bet at 1,71 is that Porto market avg price at home aside european teams(top 6) is the biggest since 15 th january,wich it indicates that Moreirense price is currently way overvalued.They are the main relegation candidates ,they were safe only in the last game and they saw 8 starting 11 players leaving and they were substituted by second divion sides.Their manager appointemnt is quite strange also Manuel Machado last season was fired by the two teams who dropped(Nacional Arouca)and its a very old coach that fails to adapt and last year was a clear example of his lack of competence at this point of his carreer.
This is clear value at the moment and the expected closing odds are below 1,64(the closing odds for Porto EstorilAH-1,75,a middle table team!,now they face a relegation candidate with higher odds available than that after Porto thrashed Estoril 4-0 and won away)
It is not feisable that this opening price(wich was not attacked yet)after Porto strong beggining of the season against the worst team arguably in the league it is above from the closing odds in the game with Estoril at 1,64.My pick is Porto AH-1,75
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Old Today, 01:58 AM   #6554
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 17
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

nice wrtire up, usually bet on port against the spread vs weak teamsin liga nos
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Old Today, 11:04 AM   #6555
Join Date: Jul 2016
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

barcelona today good pick to make $$$

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