I wonder if anyone here can help me with a question regarding football (soccer) betting. I play online poker and I have recently started playing DFS Soccer so I understand how odds and probability work. Recently I have been paying more attention to Bookmaker odds. I understand that when there are 3 outcomes:
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers set their odds so that they make a guaranteed profit and it seems they like to charge around 3.5 to 4% rake. That is all pretty simple when there are only 3 outcomes, such as betting on the outcome of the football match. The question is then:
How much rake are bookmakers charging on prices for Anytime Goalscorer odds?
I am interested in knowing the rough probability of a players anytime goal scoring chances in a game, which roughly correspond to his bookmaker odds minus the rake. However, there is no definite way for a bookmaker to guarantee profit here by fixing the odds of all outcomes. For a hypothetical example a game might end 4-4 with 8 different goalscorers so the Bookies are paying out a lot of people. Because of the uncertainty of markets like Anytime Goalscorer am I right to suspect that Bookmakers charge a significantly higher rake here?
My next suspicion is that the more likely it is that a player will score the more bookies will charge rake on that player because they will be paying out very often and they also want to deter everyone betting on the favourite in order to balance the books better.
Lets take Sergio Aguero as an example as he is a very frequent goalscorer. If Bookies project him to score in the next match @:
1.25 Decimal (80% implied probability)
We need Aguero to score 80% in that spot to break even. I am pretty sure that there is a lot of rake on the favourites in the Anytime Goalscorer markets and that it is way higher than the 3 or 4% they charge elsewhere. I dont think in this spot I can look at the odds and say Aguero is 80% to score today minus the bookie rake of 4% so I can expect him to score at 76%. It feels like they really hike up the rake to cover themselves when the probability is high they will have to pay out. As a contrast the odds for a centre back scoring are probably raked a lot lower as they have to pay out less often. I can see the rake here being nearer 4%. So I cant simply look at the market for Anytime Goalscorer and deduct 4% and expect the player to score at that rate as I am pretty sure individual players are raked differently.
I need to come up with a formula that deducts the rake to give me a % of the players implied probability of scoring. I am going to assume the rake is a minimum of 4% for all players. Then I have to work out if they are raking the bigger favourite goalscorers at 8% 10% 15% ?
?
If anybody here with more knowledge and experience than myself can shed any light on this please let me know as it will save me thinking about this every day.