I was exposed for 117 units today and finished 4 up lol, giving up for the day

I'm guessing from the Spurs and Hamburg post that things didn't turn around for you today. Anyways, to try and sort out yesterday's disaster :-

Firstly, the Empoli bet looks like a bet made purely for the fact that it was one of only a few games played on Friday, almost as if you felt you had to make a bet that day, and post it on here. If i'm wrong.....sorry.

Secondly, unless you've been living under a rock for the past few years (which you don't seem to have done thankfully due to your fairly in depth reasoning on previous posts) Italian lower leagues may well be the most dodgy place to bet on in the whole of European football. I'm yet to be convinced that teams still don't "throw" games every now and then. Empoli look strong at home on paper with 8W 2D 0L in their home games prior to the Torino clash, BUT Torino are a Serie A side without doubt imo, and have plenty of class in their ranks. Empoli are disgracefullly bad away from home, thus not an overall strong side by any means, and Torino are too hot and cold to justify that match as a 4u bet (the 8u mistake was unfortunate admittedly) but even still ??????

If you could maybe tell me how you came to this 4u bet in the first place it would be easier to break down and fix for future bigger bets, but going by pure statistics and variance in this league, this should have been a lot lower liability for yourself.

You make a very good point Gazo.
Thanks for taking the time to write your comments
As a default I limit myself to 1-2u plays on all 2nd-tier, non British leagues(which I clearly did not do here). Though not because of possible match fixing but simply as there is far less information available.
I have a process I go through before making a bet. I use the available stats and injury news and I try to assess an optimal strategy for each team. then I run it through a computer model.
I did not go through the whole process for this game.
Bet-sizing is a leak of mine which is something I am currently looking into.

I shoulda posted it on here b4 I did it. Sorry guys

Barca -1 5/6
NAC Breda 5/4
Herenveen 4/9
Roma 9/5
Deportivo 11/10

John Arne Riise is a legend

So after a bit of luck yday my picks today are:

Cagliari 8/5
Villarreal -1 11/8
Man City -1 13/10
Dundee Utd 5/4

Acc - 32/1

Dundee even with their injury problems are still stronger away than Falkirk are at home.
Falkirk's def is awful, conceding better than a half a goal per game more than the average.
Dundee Utd V Falkirk 2u @ 2.38
>2.5gls Dundee Utd V Falkirk 1u @ 2.45

Also have Stoke/Arsenal >2.5gls 1u @ 2

<2.5gls Scun V MC 2u @ 2.3

Looking good so far HT falkirk 0-2 DU and Stoke 1-1 Arsenal

3 for 3 so far +5u today
Wenger's paying the price for fielding his B squad in the FAC

looking forward to the Milan derby shortly.
It's close but Inter have the edge here imo, should be a great game!
my picks:
Inter V Milan 1u @ 2.7
>2.5gls Inter V Milan 2u @ 2.06

Inter up 1-0, good stuff

01/26:

Don't particularly like any of the games for the 25th so looked ahead for the ones on the 26th.

I'm thinking of:

Bolton vs. Burnley @1.81 (current price on BF)

Owen Coyle faces his former club and admitted that he left "because Bolton have a more realistic chance of staying up than Burnley do". Burnley are piss-poor away from home whereas Bolton are fairly solid. Given the fact that Coyle will want his players to show him he made the right move, I can see a Bolton victory here... possibly 1-0 or 2-0.

Waiting to see how the line changes, but will definitely take this bet at some point.

No real squad concerns tonight. Should be an easy win for Charlton:
Charlton V L.Orient 3u @ 1.48

I put 1u on orient in play at like 6.1 and lo and behold they go and score!

love backing the underdogs

got 1u on zambia to win vs nigeria at 6.8 aswell

26/01:

N. Forrest vs. QPR @1.65
Bolton vs. Burnley @1.80

This. Along with Rochdale -1, Swansea and Rushden & Diamonds

nottingham forrest
rochdale
spurs
roma
£30 accumulator for me tonight

Bolt/Burn should be interesting what with the recent Coyle incident
Picks for tonight, all pretty obvious and all decent prices:
Bolton V Burnley 2u @ 1.85
>2.5gls Bolton V Burnley 2u @ 1.96
Bolton + >2.5gls 0.4u @ 2.6
Bolton HT V Burnley 1u @ 2.57
Tott V Fulham 2u @ 1.67
Tott HT V Fulham 1u @ 2.28
>2.5gls Tott V Fulham 2u @ 1.98

27/01:

AC Milan vs Udinese @1.55

Double @3.51
Manchester United vs Manchester City o2.5 goals
Everton vs Sunderland o2.5 goals

1u Newcastle v C. Palace @ 1.56

Like Everton to beat Sunderland tonight.


Arsenal should have too much for Aston Villa aswell.

Book them.

whats the Best site for betting on the World Cup winner?
I always used Betfair but iBetx has lower rake (3% vs. 5% of betfair..)

is it ever good to bet on sites against bookmakers (non exchanges)?

Whats the best site commission-wise?

Pinnacle
Bet365
Asian bookies

Stand-out value bets for this weekend so far:-

Deportivo vs Real Madrid @ 4.00
Deportivo/Draw (double chance) @ 1.80
Deportivo in "Draw no bet" market @ 2.75

I'm sure some will just pick 'n' choose from the above but I favour both the straight bet and Win/Draw here.

Deportivo La Coruna are playing some very good football in recent weeks (minus the 3-0 drubbing by Sevilla in the Copa del Rey ). They have a very solid home record in the league and look to be getting back to the quality side they were 7-10 years ago, with Madrid's away form leaving a lot to be desired.

The main point of value here is Madrid have never won this fixture in the last 17 attempts!! It's gone 12W, 5D, 0L in favour of the home side, a terrible record for Real that goes back as far as 1993 and beyond! Oh, almost forgot, "superstar" Ronaldo is also banned for this one

Some of the other straight bets I have on are as follows :-
Homes
Cardiff @ 1.70
Middlesbrough @ 1.90
Aberdeen @ 2.10
Alloa @ 1.70
Brechin @ 1.70

Aways
Everton @ 2.30
Nottm Forest @ 2.00
Mallorca @ 2.10
Inter Milan @ 2.00

*Please note that most of these prices were just quoted off of Bet365 for convenience. Shop on Betfair and elsewhere if you can.

Good luck eveyone with all your bets this weekend