Lol Balla what kind of research did you do? You seriously didn't know this was played in France? Lolol luv u bro.

If there resides an answer about sports betting....

It certainly doesn't "Inherently", occupy the sport of soccer.

I reflected on this point a long, long time ago when i was young and stupid.

So what was Portugal to win after the 90mins? Had some on tie but was working so couldn't even see what the line was after that. Or actually no, don't tell me hah. Bronaldo was out early in the game too?

$19- to win in extra time.
$10- to win on penalties.

Inzaghi what do you mean by that.

I am saying that betting soccer is an extremely difficult game to judge, there is no ability to put down form, previous skill, previous examples (even recently) and then come out with a supposed outcome.

A bbc pundit pre France Portugal
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36751644

He had France winning 3-0


How can you beat Germany 2-0, go up against a side that lost like 6 of the 8 games leading up to the final, they lose their key player... and you still lose to them.

Listen man unless you have some thing really revealing to explain to me about betting football right now.. I will say it clearly for all time for all future generations.

DO NOT BET SOCCER!

Basically saying that luck has a lot more say on outcomes in football than people think.

this is taken from MLS data, but scoring in soccer is equivalent on a shot by shot basis, roughly, to flipping a 90 / 10 weighted coin ( 90% being no goal / 10% goal). Plus in bigger games you get guys whose finishing rate drops dramatically for example higuain.






http://www.americansocceranalysis.co...l-distribution

^Great insight.
The idea being that, while superior teams will inevitably have more chances (shots), the fact that so little chances are converted (10%) mean they are, in no way, guaranteed to win.

Naturally, things would be different if the coin was 10 (no goal)/90 (goal)- in such a case, better teams would almost always prevail. This point is purely academic since, undoubtedly, soccer is more appropriately described by the previous law (90/10).

I often think about football as a Poisson process but your description is more apt.

I know right? If only he'd done a bit of meditation he'd have a World Cup and Copa America title and maybe a Copa Italia (as he also missed key chances for Napoli).

Can anyone tell me a website that lets you stake higher amount of money on soccer matches?

What kind of $$$ are you talking about?

So, certainly we can find some good value on almost any other team then Brazil to win the Gold medal @ Rio amirite? Brazil is 2-1, Germany 7.25-1, Mexico 17-1, Portugal 10.5-1, etc. I know these aren't the same teams whatsoever as Euros tho but what else is different?

Australia 2-0 +1100
Australia 2-1 +950.

1u per

In play 3 units on Mexico -135 down early 1-0 against Fiji. They gonna score at least 2-3 today

They are -2000 or -3.5 -130

Match: Newcastle – Brighton
Competition: England – Championship
Date/Time: 27/08 17:30
Pick: Over 2.5
Odds: 2.10
Stake: 1

I've been betting mainly on soccer for 18 years now and I certainly believe that 90 minute soccer markets are largely unbeatable *

However I also firmly believe that the easiest way to make money from betting is by way of soccer futures markets which is what all my bets are on.

*Sure there are a couple of situations that occur every season that do seem very exploitable. But they just don't occur often enough to make them pay without taking too much risk.

And even if you do have an edge,because soccer games are often decided by chance due to the very low scoring system,psychology plays a big part in 90 minute soccer betting.Defeating even the most clued up bettors.
Edit. Then again,I guess that's true of most gambling.

Anyone got any idea on where one can obtain historical Betfair data without 100 points? Anyone feel like zipping up some data to send?

I dont get it, coming back to the thread after a long time and all i read is how horrible it is to bet on soccer/football? I cant follow.
Just one guess - ppl suffer frustration because they bet the wrong games and the wrong leagues. Betting the world cup or euro will never be a winning proposition in my view. The level of randomness (in a bad way) is increadable. Being aware of the green lumber fallacy id say this comes from a bad understanding of football as such. How can handicapping work when all the basics of it are upside down.

Just my 2 cents.

Fyi id say i am a quite experienced and well performing football handicapper.

Regards,
A234

My bad, it was 1H

I can't believe how bad they played that 1H to lose me my bet Of course in the 2H they unloaded.

In -Play (4 min. in ) Colo-Colo (+129) vs Antofagasta - 2.2u

Hi, Any chance of elaborating with regard to how well you are doing from soccer betting and over what period of time?

If not no problem but I'd like to reply.

There's an article called ,'Mugs and Millionaires'which I assume any serious soccer bettor has seen but if not it's well worth a read and explains things better than I could in a short post.

Yep. Of course it's gonna be very hard to find an edge in really big games. Most serious soccer bettors I know tend to bet on non league soccer,Scottish football and Leagues 1 and 2.


Cheers

Any1 betting on epl this weekend?
I have everton -boro 3-2 at 29.00
Seems reasonable. Its definitely an over 2.5 though right?
Thoughts?

On Real Madrid today (-215) , got close to 3.5 units on it.

Sweet that wasn't Madrids best game but they got the win