Football (soccer) betting thread

[Royle Bluntson]

bad advice itt.....

[yeaFMLdegen]

well thats 90 minutes of my life i wont ever get back. AC pretty much accepted that the only way of getting through to semi's is to shut up shop, exactly what i expected them not to do. Can't see them being able to do that for another 90 minutes at the nou camp

[Royle Bluntson]

yea I agree, I forgot how bad the pitch is at San Siro.. Rough and bumpy is not a good combo for Barci's passing, factor in the hundreds of green lasers AC Milan's fans are shining on their eyes the whole game and that's definally not a good recipe for over 2.5 goals.

[yeaFMLdegen]

Originally Posted by Royle Bluntson

yea I agree, I forgot how bad the pitch is at San Siro.. Rough and bumpy is not a good combo for Barci's passing, factor in the hundreds of green lasers AC Milan's fans are shining on their eyes the whole game and that's definally not a good recipe for over 2.5 goals.

i have absolutely no idea how the linesmen didnt spot the obvious penalty claim when sanchez got taken out by not only the defender but also the keeper. If that decision gets given like it should have been, its a completely different game.

[yeaFMLdegen]

schalke to beat bilbao 11/10: I like this bet, although bilbao done really well at united there overall league form away from home has been terrible, winning just 3 games in 14. I think the game vs united was just variance, a big part of that game was ofc united not being at their best. Schalke have been scoring goals for fun in both europe and in the league, especially at home. 39 goals in just 14 games at home, winning 11 with 1 draw and 2 losses.

birmingham to beat doncaster evens: I fancy birmingham winning this one, its a big game for both teams but even more so for birmingham, they currently sit in 6th place 2 points behind both 4th and 5th with this game in hand. They have managed to put 60 goals past teams this year, 5th highest goal tally in the championship. Doncaster have scored just 34 in 39 games conceding 64, positioned rock bottom. (absolute locks to be relegated imo) although doncaster have grabbed a point here and there recently against some decent opposition, i don't see them getting much from this game.

chelsea to beat aston villa 10/11: Villa recently have looked piss poor to put it quite frankly, losing darren bent is a huge blow to villa. The man who gets them the 15-20 goals a season, baring him they don't have anyone else that really gets a decent amount of goals. (hence why they have struggled so much over the past 3-4 weeks) Chelsea on the other hand look a completely different side since RDM took over, alot more confident, defensively more solid, attacking alot more fluidly, and morale within the team seems alot better. Coming off the back of the win in portugal (benfica haven't lost at home for 2.5 years/10 home european matches) would be a huge confidence boost for the team, i don't see them not winning away at villa.

[welsh-witch1]

those linesmen by the goal do fk all if they do they job they should awarded a pen.
you say ac shut up shop yes they did but the also pressed high up in part an should of been 1-0 up IMO barca will hammer them at the nou camp!

[yeaFMLdegen]

the thing is your right they did press high up the pitch... for about 1/10th of the match. The rest of the time they would lose the ball in barca's half and then have everyone run back to get behind the ball, not only did they do this they also played so f narrow it was unreal, knowing barca don't like to cross the ball as they don't really have anyone who is a threat in the air. (hence why alves got so much room throughout the game) gl to them if they attempt to do the same thing at the nou camp, they will get absolutely battered.

yea ac had a couple of good chances to score (not from creativity though) just through punting the ball upfield and getting lucky through a couple of basic mistakes which is very un-barcelona like.

[gunner134]

1-1(+0.34u)yesterday
YTD:59-63-3(+16.38u)

My picks for today:
Sporting Lisbon v FC Metalist Kharkiv,Sporting Lisbon to win,2u to win 2.1u
Litex Lovech - Levski Sofia Over 2.5goals 2u to win 2.8u

[EC10]

get on wolves/bolton o2.5 for saturday as early as you can..

they're the 2 "in form" teams in the premier league for over 2.5 goals

Wolves Home Played - 15 o2.5 - 12
Bolton Away Played - 14 o2.5 - 11

[sayhey69]

i read a paper that claimed odds for the championship are softer than the premier league. the reasoning is that less people bet it so its a less efficient market. anyone have any thoughts that?

[yeaFMLdegen]

Originally Posted by sayhey69

i read a paper that claimed odds for the championship are softer than the premier league. the reasoning is that less people bet it so its a less efficient market. anyone have any thoughts that?

the variance in the championship is alot greater, teams are alot closer together in regards to skill. Just look back at the results so far this year, the gap between 3rd>15th isn't that big.

i support a championship side and go watch them on a regular basis, also have a friend who has a season ticket at westham who also agrees with the above statement.

[DMMx69]

Originally Posted by sayhey69

i read a paper that claimed odds for the championship are softer than the premier league. the reasoning is that less people bet it so its a less efficient market. anyone have any thoughts that?

I assume this is generally accurate for any market - the fewer people involved, the less efficient it should be.

[sayhey69]

Originally Posted by DMMx69

I assume this is generally accurate for any market - the fewer people involved, the less efficient it should be.

ya just curious whether anyone has any experience betting both leagues and can confirm that the championship is easier. im thinking of betting it but i dont follow the championship at all. looking back at picks itt it doesnt look like many people are betting the championship or league 1. guess ill just try it out and see how it goes

[sayhey69]

Originally Posted by sayhey69

ytd: 22-18 +18.612u

Norwich Win @ 5.44
QPR Win @ 5.84
Newcastle Win @ 3.14 (my weekly anti-liverpool bet)

more to come. i did some backtesting so i may be changing up my strategies. i will probably be more focused on picking the result over asians and over unders but well see. there are other games where i think there are +ev spots but i need to do more analysis to see how i want to go about extracting value. may also throw out some picks for the championship, league 1 or other countries' leagues

[DMMx69]

do you cap other leagues largely the same as premier? years ago i had a large DB that included every league and didnt distinguish leagues. i know some are higher/lower scoring or have higher variations in level of play, but it seemed to me you could use largely the same metrics from one to another?

general thoughts on the matter?