Football (soccer) betting thread - Page 24 - Sports Betting

The Liverpool price is similar to the Sund/Liv game earlier in the season (which they lost) when they had injury troubles and they've got steadily worse since then.
My model's giving out kinda weird numbers on that one at the moment. It tends to do this when there's a huge difference between current season and previous season performance. I need to play around with some weightings, also I'll wait til tomorrow, see what the team news brings.
Also loadsa games to look at for today

Interested in hearing what you think. Play or reject =)

Quote

01-15-2010 , 10:12 PM

#578

aao

crazy theorist

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 16,869

16/01:

Everton vs Manchester City @2.70
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid @1.60

Quote

01-16-2010 , 12:30 AM

#579

Declan

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 17

Sweet

Quote

01-16-2010 , 04:04 AM

#580

Mrtrebus

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 4,962

Well, I've laid Liverpool quite a few times this season but today I'm backing them. Got on at 2.26. Think they might start showing a bit of grit, backs to the wall and all that. Or they could go into freefall......

My bets:

Portsmouth v Birmingham 2.7
Everton v Man City 2.68
Stoke v Liverpool 2.26
Plymouth v C Palace 2.56
Sheff Utd v Middlesbrough 3.85
Ath Bilbao v Real Madrid 1.69

Just noticed I've backed all away wins.

May have a look at some spread betting, not done it for a while, used to like betting on goal minutes.

Quote

01-16-2010 , 06:28 AM

#581

Mrtrebus

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 4,962

Portsmouth v Birmingham called off

Quote

01-16-2010 , 08:24 AM

#582

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Just looking at the numbers and the absent players Stoke @ 3.7 are +EV. Having said that, it's difficult to quantify how much Liverpool and Benitez can't afford to lose this game and how this will affect their players.
Also Rangers missing both Boyd and Miller today.
My picks for the early games:
<3.5gls Stoke V Liverpool 10u @ 1.27
Dutch 0-0,1-1 Stoke v Liverpool 0.6u to win 2u
Hamilton +0.5 V Rangers 1u @ 2.92

Quote

01-16-2010 , 10:32 AM

#583

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Wigan V Wolves 2u @ 3.55
Tott HT V Hull 5u @ 1.72

Quote

01-16-2010 , 10:45 AM

#584

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

2 out of 3 in the early games.....so close for Hamilton they held on for 78mins
so far +3u

Quote

01-16-2010 , 10:47 AM

#585

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

MC V Everton 2u @ 2.76

Quote

01-16-2010 , 10:58 AM

#586

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Blackpool V QPR 1u @ 2.12

Quote

01-16-2010 , 11:52 AM

#587

HipsterDufes

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 2,308

Quote:

Originally Posted by thorntoc

Tott HT V Hull 5u @ 1.72

Sighhhh ... Defoe with a great chance to win this at the last minute

Quote

01-16-2010 , 01:22 PM

#588

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

dropped a little in the later games. Blackpool took the lead twice and only managed a draw. Spurs had 18 shots on target and couldn't find the back of the net. Good result with Wigan though @ 3.55.
so far +2.2u

Quote

01-16-2010 , 03:00 PM

#589

mhh

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 128

I had Liverpool £100 @ 2.80 and fortunately layed off @ 1.20 when they were 1-0 up so ended up with like a £100 profit on the game.
I've also backed Man City for £100 @ 2.73 but they are currently down 2-0 after ~60mins which looks like a loss and I also had Tottenham £100 @ 1.30 which I thought was a lock however that ended up in a draw somehow after they had like 15 shots on goal and couldn't get past the keeper

Quote

01-16-2010 , 04:00 PM

#590

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

+0.2u on the day. I might have a bet on some of the later games or some IP on LeChampionnat

Quote

01-16-2010 , 04:55 PM

#591

Declan

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 17

Sydney FC vs Gold Coast United @ 2.00

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01-16-2010 , 06:36 PM

#592

JermNZ

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 174

noooooooooo real madrid

Quote

01-16-2010 , 11:08 PM

#593

A234

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 497

Quote:

Originally Posted by JermNZ

noooooooooo real madrid

Yeeeeees!

Obv fan monnies

Barca won

Quote

01-17-2010 , 02:15 AM

#594

Golfdish

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,838

Even money bet on New Zealand to get 0 points in the world cup (lose everything), which side would you take?

Group F: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia

Quote

01-17-2010 , 07:19 AM

#595

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golfdish

Even money bet on New Zealand to get 0 points in the world cup (lose everything), which side would you take?

Group F: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia

I'd take the NO on that one. NZ's opponents would have to be 90%(1.11)+ to win in every game to make that a good bet.
0.9^6=0.5314 %53 chance of 0 points
If they were 80%(1.25) we get 0.8^6=0.2621 %26 chance of 0 points

Quote

01-17-2010 , 08:50 AM

#596

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

A.V. V W.Ham 4u @ 1.62
dutch 1-0,2-0 approx. 0.5u to win 1.3u
Blackburn V Fulham 1u @ 2.58

Last edited by thorntoc; 01-17-2010 at 09:16 AM.

Quote

01-17-2010 , 11:49 AM

#597

Fergus83

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 139

bolten +1 v arsenal -h 2.15
g bord v ol mars 1.8
napoli v palermo 1.75
valencia v villareal 1.7

= profit?

o and I would take nz to get 0 points