We have a pick for the Portuguese League Cup tomorrow. The odds may have dropped, but i will try to post in better time next time
Oliveirense-Academica AH +0 ACADEMICA at odds 1.80
Portugal Cup Semi-Final, 2nd leg. In first leg Academica win home game by 1-0, with a late goal.
Like I said in that game preview, this semi-final is a lifetime game for both teams. Without Benfica and Porto, these two teams have a great chance to be at Portuguese Cup final, and fight for trophy.
We have some important factors that give us the edge to place a bet in this game.
First of all, It’s important to say that this game will be played in neutral field. They will play in Feirense Stadium. This isn’t the stadium where home team practice during week. Despite that, this is a small stadium with medium pitch conditions. But in my opinion, playing in this stadium isn’t so good to Oliveirense as playing home game.
Away supporters will be at higher number in stadium too, so I think home factor will not be relevant in this game.
I can tell you that Oliveirense is 11th in 2nd Division, and Academica is 8th in 1st Division. I can tell you that Oliveirense don’t win 1 game in last 5 (3 losses, 2 draws), and Academica only lose 1 game in last 5 (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss). But like I said before, this is a lifetime game… this statistics aren’t so important.
For me, the biggest factor here is defensive problems from Oliveirense. They are without 3 important defenders… Diego suspended, Chico Silva injured and Nuno Lopes bought by Beira-Mar. So coach will have to change a lot in defensive structure.
Oliveirense have to win this game, it’s a must win situation. And this team is less experienced than Académica, I can see them attacking and leave open spaces…
Académica has a good team, and they bought a couple of players in winter market. Edinho (ex-Malaga) is the new striker. They have very good players up front, and they can do offensive transition very well. Against a defense with less routine, this can be very dangerous to Oliveirense.
I have to take this Asian handicap, because I think Académica can win again, but even if they play with result, at less they should get a draw. I think this odds have good value.
Two Plus Two
Linear Mode
