My thoughts on today's matches....agree, can't see any angles here to work with.



France vs Switzerland


The last matchday has a lot of moving parts so I feel like tips could be even tougher to come by than usual. This match is a good example. Both teams can seal their current spots with a draw and that is definitely a possibility especially given the way the tournament has played out so far. Switzerland will be content playing the runner-up from Group C, which looks like it’s going to be Poland. They will try to score but not at all cost and will probably rather want to avoid falling into third place. Behrami will most probably sit, he’s a booking away from a suspension and is carrying a knock. Embolo could get the nod ahead of Seferovic, whose finishing hasn’t been great so far. I think that could provide Switzerland with a spark. Embolo is physically strong and has good technique and the French defense hasn’t looked all that settled so far.
France have edged two games so far and it’s anyone’s guess whether they will play with more freedom in this one. They will probably restore the 433 from their opening fixture but will rest a couple of players with injury concerns (Evra) or facing suspension (Kante, Giroud). Matuidi seems like he could be dropped as well and the French midfield could have a more technical touch to it this time. Pogba and Griezmann will return and Gignac will likely start up front, so I guess they will try to play out wide but not look to put the ball in the air as much this time.
Odds on France went up a lot from the 1,65 they started at the beginning of the tournament and that’s hardly a surprise. I was contemplating France above 2 but the market made the decision for me. I have a gut feeling this could have more goals than we expect. France were somewhat lucky to concede only once and Switzerland should have at least one more goal on their scoresheet. Odds on over 2 look juicy but it’s really a mug’s game to make a call with the distorted qualification system. France will certainly chase the game if they go behind and in this case I would say the game is likely to go over. Switzerland will have an eye at Romania’s game and might choose to tighten up after conceding, depending on the score of the other match. The only way I could see an angle opening up would be with France trailing at half-time. In case this is drawing around the 70min mark, I think we are likely to see a draw. Either way, too many moving parts and I’ll avoid this one.


Romania vs Albania


This match is thankfully a bit easier regarding qualification. Romania need to win to put themselves in a good spot to go through, Albania needs a win to have any chance but is chasing a -3 goal difference and is realistically eliminated. Romania will need to force play for the first time and I’m curious to see how they’ll do. If qualifications are anything to go by, this could very well be another stalemate despite both teams needing the W. They needed two penalties to score and looked ok in attack so far but this is a whole different situation for them and I am unsure how much they can go out of their tactical comfort zone to win this. Albania will do what they did for the first two matches and would be happy to get any kind of result at their first major tournament. I already have an interest in this one, needing Albania to come bottom which is essentially a double chance on Romania. Thus, I’ve no interest to get further involved but if this match is drawing around the 60min mark I would lay the draw here. Romania will need to win and will have to open up at some point to get a result. Switzerland probably won’t be up big so Romania will be chasing the score regardless of what happens at FRA vs SWI.

Well that is just a suggestion for you or prediction as the case maybe the last match france played really give me a big shock of my bet so even when I predicted Portugal match to be draw the fear of what france did couldnt let me placed my bet so I think betting for this Euro 2016 will be full of prediction and not what we really expected a particular team to play.

You can calmly bet on Portugal's victory against Hungary today. You can bet on Ronaldo's goal as well. I think the Portuguese will play only for a win.. 3-0 i guess

Sat out yesterday but that England draw hurt for the group winner's bet....certainly hope all those teams playing ultra-defensive busparker football get punished in the ko stages. Hoping for better luck tonight.

Croatia vs Spain


Croatia drew a match that they should have won by 3+ goals against Czech republic and now face the delicate (or desirable?) situation to need points to secure their second spot. They played an exquisite match against totally overmatched Czechs for a good 60 minutes but unravelled after Modric was subbed off and their fans decided to go nuts in the stadium. Appearantly something similar could happen tonight again but it's better to focus at the match and hope everything goes as usual. Croatia have been playing a lot with crosses so far.Tonight they won't have to initiate play and also Mandzukic won't play and neither will Modric. Kovacic and Kalinic will be their replacements. I can still see Croatia trying to break with quick balls down the flanks but they will not get nearly as many opportunities to do so as in their last two matches. The Czech Republic made it quite easy on them and offered lots of spaces in the middle of the pitch where Modric and Rakitic were free to do as they please. Croatia will lose quite a bit of stability in their build-up play without their star playmaker and they are not a natural counterattacking team - they prefer to circulate the ball patiently (too much so sometimes). Their defense has been tested for a good 15 minutes so far and it's looked extremely dodgy in that timeframe. I am sold on Croatia being a well-organized team, however I get the impression that if you pressure them then especially the defense starts to unravel. Look for Spain to target Vida and match him up with Morata, his side is clearly the breaking point in Croatia's defense.

Spain has looked as good as they come so far. I talked them up in my tournament preview and they have not disappointed. They dispatched Turkey with ease and Del Bosque seems not too keen to make a lot of changes to not upset their rhythm. I think this is a very sensible approach, especially given that Croatia is their first real test and likely a stronger opponent than they might meet for another two rounds. Spain were playing quite heavily down the left so far but that is Croatia's somewhat stronger defensive side so I expect them to target Vida and Strinic quite a bit tonight.

The funny situation here really is that Croatia might not even mind losing this one and letting the Czech Republic pass. They would meet Italy if they come second in the group but could meet Wales if they come second. That would require two teams to pass Albania in the ranking of 3rd-placed teams. Certainly the players don't carry a scoresheet with them on the pitch but I think that is quite likely to happen and it would be foolish to think that the locker room doesn't look at the next possible opponents. Either way I think Spain are too strong for them and will expose quite some defensive weaknesses in the Croatian team. Odds agreed with me and came in from the 2,25 I took early and the current lines look pretty fair. No bet here but should be an interesting watch.


Czech Republic vs Turkey

In the clash of two (pardon my choice of words) really useless teams so far, only the Czech Republic still has a legitimate shot at qualification. They probably don't know themselves how they got their hands on a point against Croatia but if anything, they showed morale after closing the gap to 1-2. In all fairness, the Czechs could have won that one had it gone on for a bit longer. Their weaknesses for painfully visible, a lock of control over the middle of the pitch and barely any creativity when they needed to score. I dare to say that if Modric had not been subbed off with injury they never would have recovered from that deficit. Their matchplan thrives on chaos and unstability and it was obvious how much better they played in the last ten minutes when the match was out of control. Turkey are a side that like to control things but they have no other choice than to attack tonight. That should open up quite some spaces for Czech counterattacks. The Turks them selves have looked horribly uncreative and didn't create any chance from open play until "garbage time" against Spain. The Czechs won't be as organized as Croatia and Spain were and Calhanoglu and Turan get a chance here to redeem themselves and should favour their respective matchups on the flanks. Especially Calhanoglu should be targeted by the Turkish midfield, he likes to play quite a bit in the middle of the pitch and that area between defense and midfield is where the Czech Republic look the weakest.

For once, I expect an open game here at the EURO. Both teams can't stay back and especially the Czech Republic can and must finally play according to its nature. Goals seem inevitable in this one (although I'll only believe it when I see it that teams actually dare to attack at this tournament!). It also has been quite a goal-heavy fixture historically with never less than two scored. These two met in qualifications and 2-1 and 0-2 were the final scores. I firmly expect to see quite a few chances and an open match tonight and the odds are looking decent on that.


Czech Republic vs Turkey Over 2,5 - 1 Unit @2,35 (Pinnacle)



Group C:

Poland vs Ukraine


Some curious circumstances in this match. Poland is still playing for the group win, whereas Ukraine is already eliminated. The Poles disappointed me a bit so far. They came through a tough one against Northern Ireland but didn't really shine, and were happy to play unsurprisingly destructive and tame against Germany. Hard to argue with 4 points and secure qualification though and I expect them tonight to revert to their riskier nature of play and go for it more. Lewandowski got a fair bit of criticism at home for being somewhat "invisible" in his first two matches and I am sure he is eager to leave a bettter mark on tonight's match. Poland could rotate a bit tonight and might leave the booked Piszczek on the bench. Kapustka could make a return in the starting 11 and he looked lively against Northern Ireland. Fabianski hasn't been really tested yet in goal and I see him a fair bit worse than Szczesny and see Ukraine testing him with a few shots from distance. Ukraine are playing for pride only so their starting 11 is anyone's guess but I doubt they will leave their star wingers on the bench and are probably more motivated to not go out quite as embarassingly as Russia did yesterday.

I can see that this is a bit of a risky approach but I expect a little bit more action in that match than your average EURO 2016 sunday afternoon match. Poland should attack more, as they did in their first match, and Ukraine will be a bit more willing to commit men forward on their counterattacks than Northern Ireland were. This hasn't been a goal-heavy fixture over the years but due to the circumstances I think both manager's won't keep their teams on as a tight defensive leash as usual. One goal either way should open up this one and I like the odds on that.


Poland vs Ukraine Over 2 Goals - 1 Unit@1,94 (Pinnacle)



Germany vs Northern Ireland

It's been a very bumpy start for the Germans in the first two matches. Against Ukraine their defense looked leaky and they were lucky not to concede in the first half. That improved in the second match, also due to the factor that Poland was happy playing for a 0-0. In both matches their attack stalled a lot and I talked about how Germany looks like they want to play down the wings in attack but lack the necessary players to do so. Manager Löw wants to change up things today and is likely to make a few changes to his starting 11. Draxler will probably be dropped, Schweinsteiger could start but will at least be subbed on and Höwedes might be replaced to test a more attacking option at right back. The Germans have several options in attack. Gomez might get his first start and it is in all likelihood his last chance, if Löw does not start him tonight he will not opt to do so in the knockout stages. That would mean leaving Müller on the right and going with Schürrle on the left and is the more likely option if he wants to introduce a new RB (Kimmich for example). Alternatively, Müller might play up front and young Sane might get his chance on the right flank to provide some directness and dribbles into the box. Either way, Germany will have to be more incisive with their passing and display more urgency in the final third.


Northern Ireland is unlikely to change its ulta-defensive approach from the first two matches and even a narrow defeat will be very valueable for them as three points could easily be enough to make the knockout stages. Lafferty might be back in attack but I doubt that will make much of a difference as I can't see Northern Ireland making any efforts to get forward except on set-pieces. I think we got a very good impression of the (lamentable) mindset of some teams in their last match. Slovakia defended extremely deep yesterday and got undeservedly rewarded for a match they should have lost by 2+ in all fairness. This one is highly likely to be a carbon copy of last night's match, NIR will defend extremely deep and leave it to Germany to find any kind of space to push into. Even if they go down they will be happy to slam the door and preserve their goal difference, just in case. Thus I find some charm in Germany winning to nil. Switzerland and Slovakia were able to hold the big teams to goalless draws but they have a bit more quality and frankly were both pretty lucky to do so. At some point quality will prevail and I cannot see past Germany overcoming Northern Ireland tonight.

Germany to beat Northern Ireland to Nil - 1 Unit@1,85 (Ladbrokes)

This tournament has been a wholesale disaster. First Romania screws up, then England cannot put the ball in the net and today Spain miss a penalty and concede in the dying minutes. Three group stage bets busted when they all looked set to win. Not to mention that you basically can forget about betting on goals since no team is willing or able to score. Serves UEFA right that all the big fish now ended up in one half of the draw for serving us this ***. Good luck marketing a Wales-Croatia semi.

Romania isn't that good at all. Sorry about your bet if you had one. I wouldn't mind a wales vs croatia semi, and i'm only a casual fan. Wales is surprisingly good, croatia is a team I like to watch.
There have been similar matches in the past.

Great input icrus. Unlucky on the Ukraine vs Poland overs bet but the thought process seemed good.

Things not looking too flash for me either. Bet large on outsiders:

Switzerland to win Euros @ $67 - looking okay atm
Austria to win Euros @ $125-131 - looking grim
Italy to win vs Spain @ $4.20

Yea Romania had a bad matchup in terms of their style of play but still gave away a soft and frustrating goal. When at other times teams that are bossing matches cannot seem to convert or run into goalkeepers that all of a sudden decide to have the tournaments of their lives. It's been frustrating indeed.


Like that first one Inzaghi, Swiss didn't impress me so far but needing Poland to make the quarters I don't have a good feeling about it (having had the door slammed in my face for a couple of times now). I see Austria going out today tbf, you took them before the tourney? Not sure what to make of Spain v Italy yet. Think Italians could be made to look as average as they are but this might be the best possible spot to play Spain for them.

Yeah, I mean Austria were at $41 before the tournament. Then odds jumped to $130 after that loss to Hungary. I went in at that price thinking the Hungary game was just a one-off. Now I'm not so sure and I feel like Iceland are going to give them all sorts of problems even though Austria are far superior man for man.

Actually, I wouldn't recommend Italy at that price as I think their odds will drift in the lead up to the game.

Spain can be vulnerable in defense at times- we just don't see it very often because:
-the entire team retain the ball so well and
-they have the best defensive midfielder in the world imo.

I know it's a tough ask but if Busquests doesn't play well (unlikely), Italy are in with a massive chance.

Also, If Italy should score first, I think their defense has the ability to keep Spain at bay a decent amount of the time. Italy's back four (including Buffon) have played together for years and moratta, while a good striker, is not exactly a world class threat.

Well yea, I rated Austria before the tournament too. They looked shockng in two games and I'd be surprised if they can turn it around today. Even if they do, Croatia might embarass their nonexistent midfield. I still rate Spain as the best team in the field but they were utterly stupid to let that one slip yesterday, now they will need to beat four quality teams to win it. They can do it but will they? Not sure. I sort of like their odds vs Italy but I still need to go a bit deeper into that.

Also, I have never seen games start at a 1,75 goal line. This is nuts. My over bets have been disastrous so far but surely theres gotta be goals at some point? Anyway, my thoughts on Group E tonight....


Belgium vs Sweden


Do or die situation here for Sweden. Zlatan announced that he's retiring from international football when Sweden exits the tournament and that might very well be today. They looked really poor so far and in my opinion the worst team from this group. At front they struggled to create any chances at all. Their midfield provides no creativity whatsoever and Ibrahimovic is forced to do pretty much everything, pick up the ball deep, play a direct ball to himself, lay it off and then shoot on target. This is how Sweden's attack feels like at the moment. Their back line looks ok but it's hard to gauge really. Ireland threatened a bit respective to their quality but Italy didn't even try for most parts of the match and still scored. Lindelöf looked a bit slow and immobile when Parolo took him on a couple of times and Belgium combined mostly on the left side of the pitch, so I reckon they will target him again.

Belgium are back in it and a win or a draw puts them through as runner-up and in a very interesting spot indeed. Spain's shock loss yesterday slammed the door open for a couple of "small" nations and Belgium could really smell blood here. They had trouble breaking down Ireland in the first half and in my opinion Ireland was way too eager to go forward after going down a goal. Belgium improved from their first match but it would have been shocking if they didn't and, frankly, Ireland made them look good. That said, Sweden is probably worse than Ireland and needs a win here. Belgium can do with a draw but that would be a fool's game to play and they would be well advised to win this one and take some confidence to the ko stages. Dembele could miss out but Nainggolan is an equal replacement. I'm still not sold on Belgium's tactical capabilities but Wilmots made at least one good move to combine most of their attack talent on one side and balance it with a proper full-back on the other to provide width.

Now what to make of the odds? Almost 1,9 on Belgium looks pretty decent in my opinion. They have a ton more quality and a trend I observed on the last matchday is that teams who looked dysfunctional so far confirmed that impression in their last match (Russia, Czech Republic). Sweden has been one of the worse teams so far and I really don't see them turning it around versus the best squad in the group in terms of player quality. However, this hasn't been a tournament of early goals (or any goals), and Belgium will be aware that Sweden needs the W more desperately than they do. Hamren talked about stopping Belgium and respecting them and that doesn't exactly sound like throwing the kitchen sink at the goal in the first half. At one point they will have to push higher and that was Ireland's undoing and could be Sweden's as well. I'd like to back Belgium from 2,1 or alternatively at halftime if this goes in with a draw, which probably works out roughly the same.


Belgium to beat Sweden - 1 Unit@2,1 as soon as the odds reach 2,1+ and the score is 0-0



Italy vs Ireland

Some interesting circumstances here. Ireland need a win to go through, whereas Italy can treat this as a mere friendly and will have all eyes on Monday's showdown. Italy are the only side that can still close with 9 points but my guess is that they couldn't care less about this, regardless of what Conte or the players might be saying in public. They would have faced a tough opponent in Croatia but now it's Spain, so they will make sure they rest all important/booked players. Surely the team will have the R16 in mind and they already looked barely interested in their last match. How big does that late goal by Eder look now? I can't see them investing too much in attack and, in all fairness, they don't look good enough to go three straight wins. Their attack has still a distinct feel of randomness about it. The defense looks as solid as ever and both Ireland and Spain could have a hard time breaking that down. Ireland will go with its usual approach of putting the ball long and direct to their striker and I am not sure how much success that promises. They will risk a fair bit more than so far but can't become too exposed on the counter, since going a goal behind would surely end their hopes.

This match has a draw screaming in my face. Ireland have lost only one of their last five against Italy. Italy is still unbeaten under Conte in competitive fixtures. Unless an early freak goal happens, this might go the route that Italy-Sweden took. Really can't see a lot of goals happening and I'll pursue a strategy that has paid off big time so far at the tournament (and should have been played much more).

Italy vs Ireland Under 3,5 goals - 1,5 Units@1,15 (Betfair)

And Group F. Could really do with some winners tonight....


Austria vs Iceland

The so far shockingly disappointing Austrians take on the not-so-big underdog from Iceland in an elimination match for qualification. It's no secret how much I talked up the Austrians in the run-up to the tournament but it seems like their nerves let them down big time. They looked dreadful in midfield against Hungary and only slightly improved on that against Portugal. Their defensive transition was a bit better and they didn't leave quite as many spaces in between defense and midfield. Still, they looked really vulnerable down the flanks again and should have conceded at least two and that's not even counting Cristiano's penalty. For some strange reason though small teams really have been able to ride their luck so far and get tight results in matches that should have been blowouts. So Austria is still in it but I have my doubts if they can get the necessary W against Iceland. Their attacking play is still MIA. I haven't really seen any of the slick midfield passing from Austria and they look sort of clueless how to create chances (both matches under 80% pass completion).Alaba got much criticism after his last performance but just as much is on the coach in my opinion who played him out of position and expected him to do it all for Austria. He'll shift back tonight and Janko should start as number nine again.

Iceland got outplayed in midfield for most of last match but didn't really concede a lot of dangerous situations. They put in a valid fighting effort but I am frankly stunned by how limited they are. Their entire build-up play is long balls to their central forward or balls down the flanks to not concede possession in midfield. I'm quite shocked by how the Netherlands managed to not qualify behind a dysfunctional Czech team, this limited Iceland side and the one-dimensional Turks. Anyway, a draw takes Iceland through and that is how they'll play. Park the bus, don't let Austria score and try to get a couple of lang balls forward for a counterattack or a set-piece. Portugal pushed them pretty deep but they seemed rather comfortable in defending Hungary, whose passing in midfield has been arguably more solid than Austria's so far.

My initial thought here was goals. The last three opponents that Iceland managed to shut out were Kazakhstan, Finland and Liechtenstein. Against eleven pthers they conceded. Austria haven't scored in three and they are probably due to find the net tonight, in one way or another. That should leave space to Iceland to hit them on the break. However, the tournament has really not gone as I thought and while I expected few goals, I didn't envision teams be that content to blatantly play for a goalless draw. I talked about how the dysfunctional teams so far couldn't rescind that impression in their last match and Austria has been one of them. Iceland has been really limited but what they did, they did well. Odds have rebounded again and I can't help myself but go with the underdog here who has left a more cohesive impression so far.

Iceland +0,5 vs Austria - 1 Unit@1,82 (Pinnacle)




Hungary vs Portugal

You really didn't need to be a prophet to tell me that one of these teams would be qualified coming into their last match. But I guess I would have slapped you if you told me that was Hungary. But that's how things stand here. Portugal can probably do with a draw but realistically they need and want to win this to put themselves top of the group and in a really good position in the top half for the ko stages. They've looked quite good so far but they shot temselves in the foot with their usual lack of finishing. Cristiano took a lot of **** for missing the penalty against Austria but if we're being realistic, he should be on one to two goals already, penalty excluded. Their wide play has been good and they look really strong and solid in the center of the pitch. They might be flying a bit under the radar for the moment but a win tonight would really wake up people to the prospect that this team can go to the final. I expect more of the same tonight, a dominant and strong display in attack and at one point they will inevitably find the goal with the amount of chances they create. Gomes and Guerreiro will miss tonight but Sanches should be a valid replacement for the former.

Hungary have been surprisingly solid so far but they faced one opponent that's been willing to leave them the center of the pitch (Iceland) and one that did so involuntarily (Austria). They haven't been tested at the back yet and Ronaldo must be fancying his chances shooting from distance against 40 yo Kiraly. Still, Hungary lost only one of their last seven and that was a friendly to Germany (0-2). They will come in with confidence and we've seen how much the smaller teams were able to frustrate the favourites so far.

I can't see past Portugal here to be honest. They put themselves in too many good positions and that will have to pay off at some point. Their shooting from distance could be even more dangerous tonight against a poorer goalie and if they fail to convert in three straight games, so be it. Hungary will use the EURO 2016 tactics 101 module and defend. They are not much of an offensive threat and aren't really suited for counterattacking either. In their approach they more resemble the slow build-up passing that Turkey for example play. I'd be surprised if they score and Portugal will grind this one out.

Portugal to beat Hungary to nil - 1 Unit@2,0 (Bet365)

well that is a game of soccer for you to be sincere you need to try as much as you can to endure the situation which you fine your bet result that is why we need to invest what we can loss in here.

I think i make a fortune this week with portugal match that ended 3-3 now am going take a break on saturday 3rd place matches will be easy to predict thou no bet

I'm down like a mutha on euro but up close to 30 units in copa america. Refs incompetence on that Spain penalty. Watch the goalie come all the way out before the whistle. That should have been retake but the refs wet the bed.

Let's hope ko matches go better than the group.

Switzerland vs Poland


The first R16 clash is maybe one of the few that you could actually expect to happen at this stage. Both teams came second in their groups as common sense would have indicated before the tournament. Switzerland played very solid, if at times ineffective, football. Xhaka has been running the show well for them so far. He's the focal point in Switzerland's game and pretty much all attacks run through him. That's why Switzerland tends to be a bit heavier on the left in its attacks. Their right side is more direct because Shaqiri often pushes higher up than Mehmedi and is a bit more daring in his attacks. Overall I had a rather good impression of them. Their finishing so far has been poor and they should have scored more than the two goals from corners. Seferovic in particular has had some really decent chances and should be on the scoresheet already. Defense has looked solid so far. They got caught twice on the break against Albania for big chances and France stretched them a bit down the flanks in their draw.



Poland picked up an impressive seven points but actually disappointed me in all honesty. A decent but largely unimpressive performance against Northern Ireland, a stalemate against Germany and a somewhat flattering win over Ukraine. Their offensive potential really has been only that - a potential threat. They haven't been willing and able to create quality chances. Lewandowski frankly looks a bit out of form although his primary assignment seems to be work against the ball. Poland had the fourth-fewest shots on target in the tournament (7 vs 13) and is fifth from bottom in ball possession (44% vs 58%). That's actually pretty dismal when you consider they played two defensive teams in Northern Ireland and Ukraine. I'm not advocating against their counter-attacking philosophy but clearly Poland has been happy to trade offense for defense so far. That largely worked and they conceded very few quality chances but at this point of the tournament just playing for a 0-0 doesn't cut it anymore (unless you're aiming for penalties).



I think Switzerland matches up quite well to Poland and this could be a really interesting one. The Swiss like to control the ball and build up patiently while Poland so far has been happy to sit back and defend. I expected the Poles to be a bit more proactive in their last two and they refused. Not sure if they will start with that now but at some point in the game they will have to go for it a bit more. Their stronger right side with Kuba actually plays into the stronger left flank for the Swiss and if Kuba is willing or allowed to push forward more against Rodriguez, they could create down that side. This does not really have the taste of goals at first glance but I still like the odds. I honestly have rarely seen the goal line start at 1,75 and, even though the tournament has been low-scoring so far, surely the only value side can be the over here. I mentioned that Seferovic has been unlucky so far, I expect him to get a few more opportunities tomorrow. Poland still boasts a lot of offensive potential and I expect a similar gameplan like against Germany with a bit more willingness to go forward. A goal in the first half would likely seal at least a half-win but I think even if the first goal comes in the final third of the match, you still have a decent opportunity to trade out if you wish. I'm also willing to hedge the stake on my bet on Poland to make the quarters. I think this is as much a coinflip as you will get and Poland look a bit too much favoured for my taste.



Switzerland vs Poland Over 1,75 - 1 Unit@1,93 (Pinnacle)



Wales vs Northern Ireland



This is definitely a match that you don't expect to see at the knockout stages of an international tournament. Wales so far have probably been the surprise package of the tournament. Their group has been probably a little easier than expected. They edged a tight one against Slovakia, then lost somewhat unlucky to England and romped past a dysfunctional Russian side. Their defense has looked really solid and as expected they are really difficult to score against. So far the matchups suited them really well but I expect things to get more difficult from here. Particularly in this matchup they will have to create themselves and Northern Ireland will be happy to leave possession to them. Ramsey and Bale so far combined brilliantly on the break but things will be tougher when they're the favourites and expected to play accordingly.

Northern Ireland can thank Platini and the gods of football that Germany couldn't finish if their life depended on it. They are the worst side in the last 16 by quite a margin. They had the lowest possession during the group stages and the worst ratio of shots to shots conceded and shots in the box to shots in the box conceded. Their keeper McGovern has been playing quite a bit above his standard and I wonder if this can go on for much longer. In terms of tactics there's really nothing to see here. Defend deep, hoof it forward and try to win a set-piece. That's how they scored their opener against Ukraine.

This one I find a bit hard to judge because I am not sure how well Wales will transition from soaking up pressure to playing in possession more. They have capable players to do that and enjoy keeping the ball quite a bit more than Northern Ireland or Iceland for example. The 2,0 could look foolishly easy or like a mug's bet 30 minutes into the game. Last match a couple of months ago ended 1-1 but you can disregard that since Wales was missing its star players. I feel like almost the same odds on Northern Ireland not to score offers better value but I am not comfortable with pulling the trigger. Think Wales edges this one by a goal but happy to sit out.



Croatia vs Portugal


Croatia so far have probably been the team that's exceeded expectations the most. It was clear that they have a lot of potential but they really showed up in all their three group stage matches and played at a very high level. They won convincingly against Turkey, which should have been a 2+ goal margin. Then they were unlucky to draw against the Czech Republic in a chaotic end to the match and I figured this just might have given them a shock to the system. But Croatia came back just as strong with a weakened squad and took it to Spain. I'm particularly impressed by the defensive shape of their midfield. Their pressing is working extremely well and the team can press high up the pitch (like vs Spain) or deeper (Turkey) and movement and timing look really good. Spain had the lion's share of the possession but struggled to create and get into attacking positions. Their offensive transition is really good as well and they create a ton of chances, especially breaking down the flanks. Central defense is a weakness and Portugal should look to create 1 on 1 situations with Vida. Modric will play tonight as will Mandzukic. I feel like Kalinic suits their offensive gameplan even better because he is better on the ball than Mandzukic but Croatia will not want to miss Mario's qualities in pressing and his combative attitude tonight.

Portugal were actually somewhat fortunate to even qualify even though they arguably outplayed all three opponents. Their wasteful finishing cost them four points from the first two. That was improved against Hungary but their defense looked shaky and the scenes in which they conceded the goals were not even the worst. Eliseu was really poor for the third Hungarian goal when he lets the Hungarian player cut inside to shoot with his stronger foot. Vierinha on the other flank was caught terribly out of position when Hungary broke down that side and almost scored the fourth. Portugal also didn't seem particularly comfortable with how Hungary was able to retain the ball for large spells in the first half and I had the impression that players didn't really know how and when to press. I reckon they will go back to their usual 433 tonight in which they look more solid defensively. Their build-up play isn't particularly strong and Moutinho isn't imposing himself on the match nearly as much as Modric on the other side. Still, their strong wingers usually manage to create enough danger and Portugal is eager to shoot from distance (most shots in the group stages). I don't rate Subasicc very highly and they will like to test him as well tonight.

This should be a high-class match and really interesting. Portugal will be happy to drop back into their favoured counter-attacking approach and I always said that I feel like this suits them more and they will be dangerous once they make it out of the group. Croatia won't mind being on the ball, they have the quality and the confidence to impose themselves on the match. Expectations at home now are massive and the team has already been talked up to being the successors of the magic 1998 generation. I expect them to control possession tonight and try to match up their strong wing play with Portugal's questionable fullbacks. Odds look correct to me, Croatia has been really strong so far and have earned their status as very marginal favourites. Once again, I am more interested in goals. This, even more so than the two previous matches, has the look and feel of a match that could really open up. Both teams have enormous attacking quality and are better at attacking than defending, albeit with different approaches. The goal line is set rather low and I think you can take advantage of that. I'd like to wait for a couple of minutes and then go for the Over 1,75. One goal should really open this match up and this could become a thriller if we get a first half goal.


Croatia vs Portugal Over 1,75 - 1 Unit@1,9 inplay

Really nice write ups, icrus. Thx.

Too hungover for it today haha. I'm on France to win the second half, which is looking good now. Always thought they would have the better stamina in this one. And Germany to score 2 or more. Slovakia really rode its luck so far and are prob one of the worst sides still left. Germany should be on 5 or 6 goals now not 3 and I think they'll break the duck today.

Thank you Draxler, not only are you a wonderful player to watch, you just made me the biggest payout of my SB career

Terrible call by the ref on that yellow to Germany, it was a clean slide and no bad intentions. I hate it when the refs start giving cards to compensate for the losing team getting crushed.

Time to get Muller out and see what the youngsters on the bench can do.

Knew Ger -1 was free money. GG fellas!

All over Belgium -145.

One more bet for today. I guess after that it could be curtains from what I've seen from the odds.

Italy vs Spain

The blockbuster fixture of this round no doubt. Spain shot themselves in the foot big time with their passive approach against Croatia after a pretty good openening two matches. That could now come back to bite them and they need to go through Italy, Germany and possibly France only to make it to the final. In general I like what I saw from Spain. They looked more direct than in their tici taca heydays, Iniesta and Silva are in great form and they have a true poacher in front of goal with Morata. I found it tough to rate how much the loss against Croatia was due to Croatia playing well and how much to the lacklustre approach by Spain. They seemed happy to keep the ball in the second half and play for the draw and then got punished for it. Now they'll face a team that will set up against them like the Czechs and the Turks did, only at a much higher defensive level. We know how Spain can get too horizontal in these games and struggle to break down the opposition.

Italy played well in their first match but they've been riding that big all the way until now. They were very fortunate to beat Sweden and then pretty much threw the game against Ireland. They are very apt at thwarting the opposition team but look really uncreative going forward. Eder and Pelle are just not going to cut it against top class opponents and their midfield is sorely lacking creativity. Florenzi and Candreva (who is doubtful tonight) can provide the occasional good run down the flank but that's about it. I struggle to see how they are going to score goals tonight against Spain. Their gameplan will be playing on the counter no doubt but they are going to need some help from the Spanish defense like the Belgians provided. That put me off my initial thought to go with goals here. The line is again set very low at 1,75 but this could easily end up being a stalemate like Croatia-Portugal and Italy doesn't have the offensive threats that those teams do. Match odds look about right as well. I would have favoured Spain at 1,65 to make it through but low 1,5ish is pretty much spot on. I expect Spain to nick it by a goal but too close a match to make a play.




England vs Iceland

After bottling it in the final game of the group stages, England play the surprise package in Iceland. Although they failed to win two games in which they were really dominant, I thought England played rather well in the group stages. They were extremely unlucky to concede against Russia pretty much out of nowhere. Then they played probably their poorest game against Wales. Even if the winning goal came late, they conceded another one out of nowhere and were never really threatened from open play. Even in their last match against Slovakia, England looked pretty good and created a lot of dangerous situations. Slovakia rode their luck hard and on another day this could have easily ended 2-0 or 3-0 for England. Evidently finishing has been their problem so far. They were in the top 3 teams in terms of shots and shots in the box but scored only three goals. A lot of favourites seemed to have played without the last bit of conviction they needed in the group stages and if the ko matches so far are anything to go by, it seems like class will now start to show. Sterling so far has been extremely poor for England but he might get one last chance tonight. Rooney isn't as imposing in his deeper position as classic central midfielders but I felt he did pretty ok so far to link defense and attack.Their best opportunities came from good play out wide and especially Sturridge off the bench and Walker have played really well so far. Iceland is another team that drops really deep to defend and England will rely on their wide players and fullbacks to combine to get the ball into the box.

Iceland have played some solid football so far but in all honesty look very limited to me. Their gameplan going forward is launching long balls up front and trying to win set-pieces (where they excel at). In defense they like to drop very deep but still look rather shaky and concede a lot of chances. They had the highest amount of shots on target against them and are bottom 5 in terms of shots in the box against them. Austria realistically should have won and was let down by incredibly poor finishing. Hungary was pressuring them a lot and deservedly got the late equalizer and Portugal was a very similar story to Austria. I see the charm of the underdog but the facts are that they conceded in every group stage match and have been leaking a lot of goals. Belgium made Hungary look extremely ordinary yesterday and I would argue that the difference in class here is equally wide. Their players are also not really used to play that many matches at a high level in such a short period of time and mental and physical fatigue might set in at some point during the match. I see England scoring at least two here and their defense should be well suited for the challenge on set-pieces and they should keep a clean sheet. Odds on the handicap were extremely favourable when the market opened but I still think the -1 shouldn't be any higher than 1,80 here.

England -1.0 to beat Iceland - 1 Unit@1,95 (Pinnacle)

Hi guys, playing a lot of footballbetting ( soccer in US terms lol ) and just started a page. Who is interested in it to discuss some tips together? ( Imperio Football Tips on facebook ) Just like to share and discuss some tips, build up a lot of knowledge the last years and currently researching a lot about the Euro 2016.

Proud to say I had Iceland beating England in my brackets. /brag

N1, was only a matter of time before the English choke job set in. They pretty much completely gave up in the 2nd H tho idk wtf that was all about but I had Iceland +800 for 1st H so i dgaf.

Thoughts on the Poland/Portugal match later today? I'm leaning heavily towards a tie in reg time w/how defensive minded Poland has been, and Portugal's been another team highly underperforming imo w/so many draws so far even in this tournament. Even a lil bit on Poland to win @ 3.8-1 seems like good value, I see the game playing out like a 1-0 type of affair, maybe even PKs.

The under line seems obvious but with under 2 @ 1.66 the value is gone. I think draw @ 3 seems the best bet today. Also it's closer than bookies suggest, Poland +0.25 seems also fine. Betting on portugal is a mistake, even if they win imo. The value is on Poland tonight.

Myself didn't place a bet, so I hope it will be a great game to watch, but I expect a boring game with two sides who both have the same sort of tactic. Hoping the opponent makes a error and punish them, so it will be a game with two sides waiting for mistakes.