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EV of sharing a system? EV of sharing a system?

02-08-2015 , 03:16 PM
So, since Christmas, I've been tracking plays that filter through on a spreadsheet. The labor requires me to create a new sheet daily, copying and pasting information into a set of cells, and then entering lines as they get posted each day. It's not terribly labor intensive. Really the only issue in getting everything accomplished happens on Saturdays when the lines don't all post at the same time, requiring several trips to SBR for updates and comparisons across books. The plays returned have an aggregate success rate 59.46% through 296 plays. Now, I know that things may change, especially as the postseason approaches, etc, and it's likely things may turn against me, but, to this point, the past 5 weeks have had success rates of 61.6%, 64%, 53.5%, 59.7%, and 61.1%.
My dilemma is that my job is going to greatly interfere with the grunt work necessary to find the multitude of potential plays on a Saturday (12-9 yesterday) on Valentine's Day. Is it worth bringing in a partner to help with identifying those plays next Saturday so I can get the bets in on my cell? It'd require sharing my system on a Google doc and no one else is the least bit privy to what I'm doing and how I'm going about it.

TL;DR: Should OP share the spreadsheet that includes formulas that have been generating 59% winners w/ a friend, just to avoid missing 40% of the weekly plays generated?
EV of sharing a system? Quote
02-08-2015 , 04:23 PM
Personally, I never give away anything to anybody. If I've found an edge, it's staying with me. That said, if you are going to give it away, it better to be to somebody whom you trust deeply and know that they wouldn't start going rogue with your models and beating you to the lines you wanted to bet.
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02-08-2015 , 04:39 PM
Is there really no way to set it up so that someone can do the grunt work without seeing the core logic of the bet system?
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02-08-2015 , 06:52 PM
^ Good point. I took OP literally when he said that "It'd require sharing my system," but I suspect that you're right that OP could have the grunt do the data gathering, while OP handles the analysis of said data.
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02-08-2015 , 06:58 PM
The computations are based in a Google spreadsheet, and I'm not sure how you conceal a cell's contents to someone with permission to edit the sheet. I suppose I could create a Google form and such but that cure may be worse than the problem.
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02-08-2015 , 07:00 PM
Couldn't you hide the cells with the formula and password protect the sheet? So it would just be input data and output? Put in on onedrive (outlook) online excel app rather than google docs.

eg like this kelly calc only the cells to put in bankroll roi and odds can be edited and none of the formulas are viewable.

http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/Kell...alculator.html
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02-08-2015 , 07:09 PM
You protect by going to cell formatting/protection and unticking locked for all the cells that you want to allow editing. Hide all your formulas. Then go to "Review" on the toolbar "Protect sheet" make sure "select unlocked cells" is ticked, put in your password and that should be it. You can then save it on one drive and give someone the link and they can put in the data.
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02-08-2015 , 07:52 PM
Either:

Separate the input from the calculation spreadsheet. Maybe have one for inputting data and the magic one with calculations lookup the data in the shared sheet.

Or:

Get a script to do the grunt work for you. This is why we have computers. I doubt the data you're entering can't be scraped and updated automatically and you can then focus on the fun stuff.
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02-09-2015 , 05:24 AM
I dont want to be sexist, but, have run teams with 20+ people, and females are better.

If u decide to involve someone else, I would favor a female, as (in my experience) they showed better multi-tasking skills, were more reliable, and were less likely to bet the bankroll on -EV opportunities.

Having said that .. I wouldnt share the edge .. it always gets complicated.
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02-09-2015 , 12:46 PM
I'll take the under
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02-10-2015 , 12:20 AM
It seems my main source for the odds I feed into my spreadsheet, SBR's odds page, won't work with Chrome Scraper (Access forbidden error). Importxml looked promising, but I can't seem to interpret which fields are what I need, never mind how to easily encode the query when I see a field that might work when looking at the source code. I wish I had kept on top of my computer coding skills. In the 80s my (alarmed) parents got a call from the FBI regarding my activities with hackers. Now? I can't even encode my own applets.
Anyway, thanks for the input. I'll probably just sit tight on Saturday and backtest the results when I get home. Maybe I'll miss out on a major correction, right??
EV of sharing a system? Quote
02-11-2015 , 09:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FRGCardinal
It seems my main source for the odds I feed into my spreadsheet, SBR's odds page, won't work with Chrome Scraper (Access forbidden error). Importxml looked promising, but I can't seem to interpret which fields are what I need, never mind how to easily encode the query when I see a field that might work when looking at the source code. I wish I had kept on top of my computer coding skills. In the 80s my (alarmed) parents got a call from the FBI regarding my activities with hackers. Now? I can't even encode my own applets.
Anyway, thanks for the input. I'll probably just sit tight on Saturday and backtest the results when I get home. Maybe I'll miss out on a major correction, right??
admittedly not as well versed as the above poster but have had similar problems scraping daily NBA data so if anybody has a current season NBA db including FG/1h/2h odds/results in excel and would like to make a deal PM me

as for the subject of the OP, I have no problem sharing a system with a trusted associate or backer to help with financial backing to take real advantage of such a thing, but I would say posting any such system on the internet is probably a bad idea
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02-12-2015 , 04:20 PM
i'm pretty sure you could post a 70% ATS backtested consistent winning system on one of the big sports betting forums and have absolutely no concerns about people killing your ROI..... people stupidly just don't care that much. they'd much rather just post their own random picks or have you feed them picks every single day.

if you wrote a bunch of articles on a high profile site so that they'd be easily accessible forever that might endanger your ROI
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02-13-2015 , 10:56 PM
Well... You could share your system with me. I won't tell a soul.... honest. I might be able to do the work depending on what it is.

Look at it this way. If you can do the system without telling a soul then do so. But if you can't, then the system isn't going to be put to use anyway so you might as well share with someone and take the risk that they won't be stupid and tell the world.
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02-16-2015 , 09:40 PM
If your playing against the house seems like helping each other sports betters out is a +ev play
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02-16-2015 , 10:45 PM
no not really
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02-18-2015 , 02:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie
i'm pretty sure you could post a 70% ATS backtested consistent winning system on one of the big sports betting forums and have absolutely no concerns about people killing your ROI..... people stupidly just don't care that much. they'd much rather just post their own random picks or have you feed them picks every single day.

if you wrote a bunch of articles on a high profile site so that they'd be easily accessible forever that might endanger your ROI
Solid point. Only wizards like you and me base our bets on 70% ATS systems we read about on sports betting forums.
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02-19-2015 , 03:45 PM
Plays went 8-6 last Saturday. But I'm almost getting frightened at the amounts being called for by my spreadsheet as the last 4 days have kicked out plays that went 20-5. I've been trying to incorporate 1/3 Kelly bets and, on a day like yesterday or today, the plays call for me to put greater than 50% of my roll on my 3 different outs at risk. Does anyone really put 6-7% of their roll (which is still nowhere near the max) on a given play when there are 10 such plays at once? Also, if things DO continue to roll my way, at what point can I expect to be slapped with a limit collar, particularly since I'm betting small markets with $500 max bets?
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02-19-2015 , 04:38 PM
if youre in 500 bet land, you should have edges that big
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02-24-2015 , 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuff_Fishh
If your playing against the house seems like helping each other sports betters out is a +ev play

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkson
no not really

I got a little bit too much amusement out of this.
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