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Old 11-19-2012, 05:10 PM   #1
TAG-NIT
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ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

He makes five picks every Friday and over the last two years he is documented 92-54 against the spread. He lays out compelling research with each pick, so I believe there is enough proof that his picks are just entertainment fluff.
He is 71% so far this year, and I know that is unsustainable, but seems enough of a track record to be considering interesting.
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Old 11-19-2012, 05:13 PM   #2
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

Quote:
Originally Posted by TAG-NIT View Post
He makes five picks every Friday and over the last two years he is documented 92-54 against the spread. He lays out compelling research with each pick, so I believe there is enough proof that his picks are just entertainment fluff.
He is 71% so far this year, and I know that is unsustainable, but seems enough of a track record to be considering interesting.
I don't know how he does his picks, but I wouldn't be surprised if he is picking against mid-week USA Today type lines and getting much better than market. E.g. picking Team A +4.5 when line is already down to 3/3.5 and vice versa.

Also, he could be hot over a 146 game sample. Not impossible

EDIT: probably more running hot.

Last two weeks picks pinny line at time of pick

Nov. 16
Buccaneers (-1.5) at Panthers -1
Saints (-4.5) at Raiders -4.5 -108/+100
Browns (+8) at Cowboys +8 ~-110/+101
Packers at Lions (+3.5) +3.5 -122/+113
Ravens at Steelers (+3.5) +3.5 -111/+103

Nov. 9
Lions (-2) at Vikings ~-2 -117/+102
Falcons at Saints (+2.5) ~+2.5 -104/-112
Cowboys (-2) at Eagles ~-2 -113/-102
Jets (+6) at Seahawks +6
Texans (+1.5) at Bears ~+1.5 even juice

From what I saw (didn't record) he looked to beat the majority of those 10 closing lines.

I was listening to him today on the way home and he was patting himself on the back for picking the winner of every division, talking about how predictable the NFL is. Nevermind that he picked records of:

1 Patriots 13-3 (7-3)
2 Bills 9-7 (4-6)

1 Texans 9-7 (9-1)
2 Titans 7-9 (4-6)
3 Colts 5-11 (6-4)

2 Bengals 10-6 (5-5)

2 Chiefs 8-8 (1-9), last in AFC

1 Giants 11-5 (6-4)
2 Eagles 10-6 (3-7), last in division

1 Falcons 10-6 (9-1)
2 Saints 7-9 actually looked decent early, now looking like .500+
3 Panthers 7-9 (2-8), last in NFC
4 Bucs 6-10 (6-4)

1 Packers 13-3 (7-3), counting this as correct #1 spot somehow
2 Lions 10-6 (4-6), last in division
3 Bears 10-6 (7-2)

2 Rams 9-7 (3-6-1, last in division)


So he has 4 teams finishing #2 in their division who are currently last (2 of which last in their conference).

Of his division winners, all that needs to happen for accurate records are Pats win out, Hou loses out, Atl loses 5 of 6, NYG wins 5 of 6.

Easy game. So predictable.

Last edited by rianb; 11-19-2012 at 05:42 PM.
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Old 11-19-2012, 05:25 PM   #3
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

I've listened to Cowherd quite a few times including when he makes his picks. Pretty obv he is running hot but I feel he does understand NFL better than the average schmuck off the street. Don't think he's the best NFL capper on the planet, which his record might suggest.
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Old 11-19-2012, 05:32 PM   #4
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoDeViLs View Post
I've listened to Cowherd quite a few times including when he makes his picks. Pretty obv he is running hot but I feel he does understand NFL better than the average schmuck off the street. Don't think he's the best NFL capper on the planet, which his record might suggest.

Yea, certainly not the best, but as you intimated, probably up there in ability compared to most sports talk show host.

Quote:
I don't know how he does his picks, but I wouldn't be surprised if he is picking against mid-week USA Today type lines and getting much better than market. E.g. picking Team A +4.5 when line is already down to 3/3.5 and vice versa.
Good point. One case in point is that he had Steelers at +3.5 which won, but my line was +3.
Overall his game-by-game analysis have proven to be fairly succinct.
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Old 11-19-2012, 05:43 PM   #5
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

do he have a podcast on itunes worth listening to?
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Old 11-19-2012, 06:55 PM   #6
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

I have heard his picks many times almost every week at least 2 games are shaded a 1/2 or 1 point in his favor from Pinny line when he makes the pick. I heard him give -2.5 and the line on Pinny was -3 -125. Not trying to hate, if someone has access to his yearly picks I would like to compaired them Vrs line at same time and end line on Pinny.
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Old 11-19-2012, 06:59 PM   #7
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

blazin' 5.

LOL

i've been contemplating fading him since maybe 2 weeks ago when he said, 'if i were in the hilton contest i would be in 2nd place...'

though i'll admit to wanting to fade chris berman several years ago. 'the swami' at the end of the year was way down, like 15u or something, and on a monday night he decided that 2 of his wins from the day before should count as 5 wins each. hahahahaha, best part was they updated his record with 10 more wins and then the next week showed that record. hahaha
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Old 11-19-2012, 11:53 PM   #8
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

Berman drives me crazy with that stuff. In 2010 he was 16 games under .500 and says the Sunday night game Seattle over St. Louis would be worth 17 games. I had money on Seattle and was rooting against them just so Boomer couldn't claim a winning record for the season LOL. Seattle won and Boomer was all of the sudden a respectable 45-44 or something like that for the season.

Colin on the other hand is pretty legit.
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Old 11-19-2012, 11:56 PM   #9
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

"pretty legit"...describe this.
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Old 11-19-2012, 11:59 PM   #10
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It's pretty obvious Colin knows people in Vegas(wise guys) if you listen to him regularly (having lives there and all). A few years ago he made me a lot of money on a game he said was lock of the year that he would be betting a large amount on. He went on and on about how it was one of few lines a year that can be taken advantage of. He has some knowledge/connections.
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Old 11-20-2012, 12:05 AM   #11
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts View Post
do he have a podcast on itunes worth listening to?
not sure if its been posted, his information is relevent although I disagreed with his Det Lions pick this past week The Blazing Five Podcast,ESPN page with his picks and podcasts to date
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Old 11-20-2012, 12:09 AM   #12
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clarkwt View Post
It's pretty obvious Colin knows people in Vegas(wise guys) if you listen to him regularly (having lives there and all). A few years ago he made me a lot of money on a game he said was lock of the year that he would be betting a large amount on. He went on and on about how it was one of few lines a year that can be taken advantage of. He has some knowledge/connections.
pretty good answer. thanks.

still not convinced, but i'm biased. dude doesn't like michigan. haha
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Old 11-20-2012, 01:13 AM   #13
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

Guys, Berman is poking fun at how terrible he is. Of all the things to be bothered by about him, his silly jokes about his win record is not one of them.
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Old 11-20-2012, 01:38 AM   #14
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

honestly bob, i think he does that **** consciously because his ego won't allow him to be THAT far behind picking ATS.

what darko said wasn't even the thing i was talking about.

lolberman.

'i'm the swami, and this is getting embarrassing so i better retroactively change my record...next week no one will remember anyway'.

that **** is AWFUL. hahaha
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Old 11-20-2012, 03:29 PM   #15
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

I really like Colin tbh, he seems so much more rational about things than every other ESPN talk show host.

As for his picks I will say tail him consistently.

He admits to not knowing a lot about several things but iirc football is not one of them, that being said I really see no way he does not have somewhere between a or several reliable sources where he receives his picks.

and LOL any ESPN analyst ATS. Most of their records simply picking winners would not be profitable with -110 odds.
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Old 11-20-2012, 03:39 PM   #16
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

Also did a little digging but only 2 weeks worth because his friday lines and the closing lines were all very close and were going in both directions not more than .5. I think it is safe to assume Colin's show is free, nationally televised paid insider tips.

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lin...es This Season
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Old 11-20-2012, 06:15 PM   #17
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoDeViLs View Post
I've listened to Cowherd quite a few times including when he makes his picks. Pretty obv he is running hot but I feel he does understand NFL better than the average schmuck off the street. Don't think he's the best NFL capper on the planet, which his record might suggest.
Agreed. His trolling & subsequent backpedaling of Aaron Rodgers a couple yrs ago was very tilting but minus that - he does a nice job on the NFL of walking the line between not overreacting to each week, but also not fading the squares for the sake of fading the squares ie Scott Van Pelt.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rianb View Post
I was listening to him today on the way home and he was patting himself on the back for picking the winner of every division, talking about how predictable the NFL is. Nevermind that he picked records of:

So he has 4 teams finishing #2 in their division who are currently last (2 of which last in their conference).

Of his division winners, all that needs to happen for accurate records are Pats win out, Hou loses out, Atl loses 5 of 6, NYG wins 5 of 6.

Easy game. So predictable.
Meh I heard that segment too. To be fair he was pretty forthcoming about a lot of the records being off.

I don't think his basic point is that far off. Maybe it's just the demoralized Bills fan in me, but I've felt for a while now that the NFL despite all the talk about parity, is becoming more like the NBA in that there are haves and have nots mostly predicated on your QB. Marino & Elway led teams to some pretty mediocre records - that just never seems to happen anymore with the elite qb's. Maybe there actually is more parity & therefore QB is more important? IDK either way it's pretty ridiculous that you can just pencil in Team Brady & Manning for the division every single year and basically never be wrong in a league that's known for its unpredictability.
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Old 11-20-2012, 07:47 PM   #18
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

Will someone use this thread and post his picks from now on, you guys convinced me I'm in for 1/2 unit on each.
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Old 11-20-2012, 08:20 PM   #19
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

NFL parity is a myth and the parity begins and ends with ownership and management that is selected by that ownership.

Sure a couple teams will get lucky but only for a year or 2. Good owners hire the right people for the job, those right people then evaluate the talent and hire the right talent. That is usually a QB or a QB that works in your system.


ok Parity does exist but in variance like in poker, over one season, sure we Lions made the playoffs, but then we double the sample size and we are what we knew we were.

#any cleveland team
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Old 11-20-2012, 08:32 PM   #20
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

Quote:
Originally Posted by ERGOPHOBIA View Post
NFL parity is a myth and the parity begins and ends with ownership and management that is selected by that ownership.

Sure a couple teams will get lucky but only for a year or 2. Good owners hire the right people for the job, those right people then evaluate the talent and hire the right talent. That is usually a QB or a QB that works in your system.


ok Parity does exist but in variance like in poker, over one season, sure we Lions made the playoffs, but then we double the sample size and we are what we knew we were.

#any cleveland team
I think the amount of games decided on the final drive this season is a decent indicator of the parity concept.
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Old 11-21-2012, 08:40 AM   #21
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

but isn't it always the team that Vegas wanted to?
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Old 12-21-2012, 08:56 PM   #22
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

Just saw the 2 minute drill for the first time this year and it reminded me of this thread. Berman is having another losing year 38-50 ATS and of course this week the games are worth 3 each. Can't wait to see what he has planned for next week assuming he doesn't go 5-0 this week.
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Old 12-21-2012, 11:54 PM   #23
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

Not only is Berman having a losing year, but he's getting completely destroyed (like 40%). The guy is a total idiot, and I can't believe they let him on ESPN to give subtle spread advice considering the average ESPN watcher is probably dumb enough to blindly tail him.
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Old 12-22-2012, 01:54 AM   #24
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

The average ESPN watcher being dumb enough to tail Berman is a good thing.
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Old 12-22-2012, 02:04 AM   #25
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Re: ESPN Colin Cowherd win rate ATS

49-21 to date

Sundays picks:

Giants (-2.5) at Ravens

Redskins (-6.5) at Eagles

Browns (+13) at Broncos

49ers at Seahawks (+1)

Saints at Cowboys (-2.5)

Last edited by TAG-NIT; 12-22-2012 at 02:05 AM. Reason: Why the f*ck would anyone care about what Berman picks?
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