Quote:
Originally Posted by TAG-NIT
He makes five picks every Friday and over the last two years he is documented 92-54 against the spread. He lays out compelling research with each pick, so I believe there is enough proof that his picks are just entertainment fluff.
He is 71% so far this year, and I know that is unsustainable, but seems enough of a track record to be considering interesting.
I don't know how he does his picks, but I wouldn't be surprised if he is picking against mid-week USA Today type lines and getting much better than market. E.g. picking Team A +4.5 when line is already down to 3/3.5 and vice versa.
Also, he could be hot over a 146 game sample. Not impossible
EDIT: probably more running hot.
Last two weeks picks
pinny line at time of pick
Nov. 16
Buccaneers (-1.5) at Panthers
-1
Saints (-4.5) at Raiders
-4.5 -108/+100
Browns (+8) at Cowboys
+8 ~-110/+101
Packers at Lions (+3.5)
+3.5 -122/+113
Ravens at Steelers (+3.5)
+3.5 -111/+103
Nov. 9
Lions (-2) at Vikings
~-2 -117/+102
Falcons at Saints (+2.5)
~+2.5 -104/-112
Cowboys (-2) at Eagles
~-2 -113/-102
Jets (+6) at Seahawks
+6
Texans (+1.5) at Bears
~+1.5 even juice
From what I saw (didn't record) he looked to beat the majority of those 10 closing lines.
I was listening to him today on the way home and he was patting himself on the back for picking the winner of every division, talking about how predictable the NFL is. Nevermind that he picked records of:
1 Patriots 13-3
(7-3)
2 Bills 9-7
(4-6)
1 Texans 9-7
(9-1)
2 Titans 7-9
(4-6)
3 Colts 5-11
(6-4)
2 Bengals 10-6
(5-5)
2 Chiefs 8-8
(1-9), last in AFC
1 Giants 11-5
(6-4)
2 Eagles 10-6
(3-7), last in division
1 Falcons 10-6
(9-1)
2 Saints 7-9
actually looked decent early, now looking like .500+
3 Panthers 7-9
(2-8), last in NFC
4 Bucs 6-10
(6-4)
1 Packers 13-3
(7-3), counting this as correct #1 spot somehow
2 Lions 10-6
(4-6), last in division
3 Bears 10-6
(7-2)
2 Rams 9-7
(3-6-1, last in division)
So he has 4 teams finishing #2 in their division who are currently last (2 of which last in their conference).
Of his division winners, all that needs to happen for accurate records are Pats win out, Hou loses out, Atl loses 5 of 6, NYG wins 5 of 6.
Easy game. So predictable.
Last edited by rianb; 11-19-2012 at 05:42 PM.