Does sharp money ever move a line for an NFL game? - Sports Betting

Two Plus Two Forums Sports and Games Sports Betting

Does sharp money ever move a line for an NFL game?

Post Reply Subscribe

...

09-10-2009 , 11:04 PM

Little-Bear

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 188

My thought was always that on fully bet games like NFL, the vast majority of the betting is by the public, and the sharp betting has virtually no chance to influence the line. I recall reading this in many places. The only lines that are moved by sharp money, if I recall correctly, are "underbet" games, like obscure college games and so on.

Is this correct? All the line moves I ever see for fully bet games like playoffs or NFL games always appear to be solely moved by the public.

Quote

09-10-2009 , 11:24 PM

ImStillBen

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,790

A dollar is a dollar is a dollar.

Quote

09-10-2009 , 11:33 PM

Rustjive

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 1,311

But I think that in general OP is underestimating the amount of sharp money.

Quote

09-10-2009 , 11:39 PM

Elon_Poker23

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 108

Can someone please define 'sharp betting', thanks

Quote

09-10-2009 , 11:51 PM

Little-Bear

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 188

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImStillBen

A dollar is a dollar is a dollar.

You have missed the point of the question.

Quote

09-11-2009 , 12:07 AM

ProfessorBen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 9,897

Quote:

Originally Posted by Little-Bear

You have missed the point of the question.

you missed his assumption.

Quote

09-11-2009 , 12:54 AM

ImStillBen

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,790

So you must bet a lot of WNBA right?

Quote

09-11-2009 , 01:26 AM

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImStillBen

So you must bet a lot of WNBA right?

Unpossible. I do not believe that there are any WNBA squares out there. Who is a degenerate sweating the Storm?

Quote

09-11-2009 , 05:53 AM

Sabaneta

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 1,175

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

Unpossible. I do not believe that there are any WNBA squares out there. Who is a degenerate sweating the Storm?

The morrison clowns were betting a lot of WNBA, till they lost that C bet (they were moving these lines 5+ pts sometimes).

There are a bunch of idiots following some want to be touts at sbr in wnba, they allegedly are winning, they are also teasing wnba games.

And yea I love losing +7.5 by 8 in ot

Last edited by Performify; 09-11-2009 at 01:45 PM.

Quote

09-11-2009 , 08:37 AM

#10

Little-Bear

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 188

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorBen

you missed his assumption.

No I really don't think I did.

Quote

09-11-2009 , 11:54 AM

#11

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by Little-Bear

No I really don't think I did.

No. You did.

Quote

09-11-2009 , 12:25 PM

#12

Peeig

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 894

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

Unpossible. I do not believe that there are any WNBA squares out there. Who is a degenerate sweating the Storm?

Lesbians

Quote

09-11-2009 , 01:10 PM

#13

Mr. 33

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 403

Are lesbians more prone to gambling degeneracy than hetero women?

Quote

09-11-2009 , 01:13 PM

#14

Peeig

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 894

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. 33

Are lesbians more prone to gambling degeneracy than hetero women?

No, just more prone to sweat a WNBA game

Quote

09-11-2009 , 02:01 PM

#15

ImStillBen

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,790

Quote:

Originally Posted by Little-Bear

No I really don't think I did.

I know you are but what am I.

Quote

09-11-2009 , 02:43 PM

#16

damedley

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 202

The question is poorly phrased. Yes, of course sharp money "ever" moves an NFL line. The question should be something like:

"How often does sharp money move an NFL line 1 point or more in a 24 hour period?"

Now that's a question I'd like to see answered. I'd guess it's 3-4 times a week. We can define "sharp money" as money bet by all players who have a positive expectation, but for all practical purposes we're really just talking about players and groups who bet a LOT on the games they choose to play.

Quote

09-11-2009 , 07:18 PM

#17

centris

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 566

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImStillBen

A dollar is a dollar is a dollar.

I come for the sports betting advice, but stay for the Gertrude Stein references.

Quote

09-12-2009 , 01:39 AM

#18

DCJ311

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,627

Depends on the game and the amount of $ obv. 2nd half bets, obscure college games and totals move swiftly if any big bets are placed on them, since usually that's going to be the sharp money.

Quote

09-12-2009 , 11:39 AM

#19

Little-Bear

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 188

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

No. You did.

NO. I didn't. The question was not whether all dollars are created equal. We all know that. The question was whether smart money forms enough of the pool on a well bet game (such as an NFL game) to move the line significantly. So kindly stfu until you understand what I am asking.

Quote

09-12-2009 , 12:04 PM

#20

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

i hope thremie regains his lost rage.

As for Centris, when you go to bet Oakland this week, there's no there there.

Quote

09-12-2009 , 05:25 PM

#21

the steam

banned

Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 1,521

Quote:

Originally Posted by Little-Bear

My thought was always that on fully bet games like NFL, the vast majority of the betting is by the public, and the sharp betting has virtually no chance to influence the line.

You are pretty much correct.Guys who bet for a living make their money in other sports.Most of them still bet NFL because they are degenerates but a big bet by a pro gambler doesn't carry much weight on an NFL game as opposed to a college,basketball or baseball game.

Quote

09-12-2009 , 05:35 PM

#22

ProfessorBen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 9,897

Quote:

Originally Posted by Little-Bear

Quote

09-12-2009 , 07:42 PM

#23

Ramstone

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 517

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. 33

Are lesbians more prone to gambling degeneracy than hetero women?

Over represented at poker tables. Under-represented at the Roulette wheel.

Draw your own conclusions.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...