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Risk of Ruin Calculation

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11-26-2007 , 03:54 AM

jkpickett

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 22

I've been scouring the internet and this site for a way to calculate RoR in regards to betting sports. I keep find the poker calculators, but does anyone know where I can find one for sports? I want to be able to put in 1-3% units, total BR, different winrates, etc. to get a % RoR.
Also I know this site advocates a 1-2% unit, but how great does a 3% unit affect the RoR? My friend uses 3% units and has never been bust in 4 years, but I feel like I'm not near as skilled at picking games as I have lost every handicapping contest I've been in with him. Thanks guys.

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11-26-2007 , 12:31 PM

gfxhjk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

use kelly

0% ROR, max profits

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11-26-2007 , 04:35 PM

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

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Maybe I'm mistaken but don't you need to do a Monte Carlo for this instead of a calc?

I don't know how, but I do know you can do Monte Carlos in Excel?

I'm really fishing in the dark. Just trying to toss out some ideas :x

Maybe someone can clarify this.

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09-08-2009 , 06:06 PM

Panik

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 470

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

YOu can do monte carlo in excel, but you need to code it yourself

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09-08-2009 , 07:39 PM

atrainpsu

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,840

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Originally Posted by Panik

YOu can do monte carlo in excel, but you need to code it yourself

This. And it isn't very user friendly to recode for the different variables...

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09-08-2009 , 07:48 PM

atrainpsu

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,840

And fwiw, i tried to put something together quickly but it kept crashing.
1000 bets at 3% of starting bankroll, 50% win%, and 0% edge has a risk of ruin of ~30%.

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09-08-2009 , 08:04 PM

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

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Originally Posted by rsigley

use kelly

0% ROR, max profits

/thread

I'm down to $6 bets, but I'm not ruined

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09-12-2009 , 11:05 PM

Patrick Sileo

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 29

I would stick with 0.5 Kelly.

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