I am going to third LanceFedora getting his own thread next season.

My dreams not coming true prediction was ****ing spot on, makes me laugh.

Shout out to my dude Wil .. hes the fckn man.. we getting rich next season!!

Sent from my SPH-L710 using 2+2 Forums

Was also gna suggest Lance get a thread

That was actually sharp analysis. Anyone watching the development of that secondary the past couple of years realized that no one was getting separation down field against them. Drew Bree's actrocious games against them 2x in 2 months, showed that even a first ballot hall of famer would not pass beyond 1-2 yards on this D. They only significant yards they were giving up against the pass where in meaningless games/situations.

People who asked for my insights were pretty much told this: Shutdown secondary, aggressive scoring defense, and an overhyped Denver team/Manning storyline that lacked physicality against legitimate defensive threats. I even told people to wait for number to rise to +3 before they bet it, easy game.

Link to where you posted this before the game?

He bets my picks and receives free poker coaching/range analysis in exchange for getting me action on Nascar. He is sitting next to me as I type. I posted on 2+2 that I liked Seattle right after it opened and even told people to wait until the spread moved to +3. I am not going to waste my time searching, but I made more than one post about why this was a solid investment opportunity.

Also here is quote from a short summary I gave to someone yesterday asking why I liked Seattle +3. I do not know how to put quotes from pm's into my posts but it can be confirmed, lol:

"expecting to see it come down to Denver skill position receivers getting separation from the best secondary in the NFL. Haven't seen any team do that in the past few months, so Manning should have some really tight throwing windows."

The hell is this?

bookies could not pay out on there mistake ( said small amount they would of took it as there mistake

told me call back in hour, said sorry but should of checked your bet (head office or some bs)

fml i can always find a way to lose even when i pick the winner, not pissed at staff as nothing could be done, cant expect them pay up £600

boo hoo me god i run like shi,t

Hit the lottery and lost the ticket.

Really annoying when stupid crap like that happens. I've forgotten to put in my password to confirm like 10 times. Went upstairs to check my balance rubbing my hands together making that Scrooge face and it gets replaced with the "wtf is this" face.

Disgusting.

+1

Confirmed public got murdered...
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2013...nevada-casinos

+1 EC putting in work despite the man and his oppressive 2+2 authoritah. Like Peter Tosh says, "How long can you keep a good man down." Rastafari forever.

lol betting heads ever

My syndicate:

+1 Play on Playa!

I don't understand. I thought books attempted to balance wagers on either side so they are indifferent to results?

Not sure what they are doing, but I have lots of Nascar action coming up if any bookies want to take some of it? Love to balance books with some of my action if anyone needs it.

Why does everyone think this? I've heard this over and over again but it's a misconception. In this particular game I think maybe they would because of volume, but in general this isn't true.

I knew scrub sports bettors(equivalent to a poker grinder) back in the day who claimed to have made a decent living for many years using systems that fade the direction of public action. Not sure how it works, thank god my system is me and I have a keen eye for sports EV, self reliance.

In this case, I think they were willing to stick at 2.5 and take Denver money at a favorable line rather than post 3 and possibly get middled by any Seahawks money that was waiting to pounce.

I think Biggie was mocking the squares ITT... I think...

No. Legit question. I don't do much sports betting. Then if books don't worry about balancing their action, why do lines move?

they want to get as much equal action as possible. it just doesn't work out very often. short of laying off action. there is not much you can do other than move the line. I don't think books mind taking a side every so often. They def needed Seattle and they had an enormous Hold %.

they used to lay off back in the day. not much of that going on now from what I hear. really the SB was the ideal situation for the books. Joe square loved Denver and bet them hard. all the sharps were on Seattle. Sharps/Books on one side, squares on the other. typically disaster for the square.

THis is true generally. In this instance the books had 2 options. Stay at -2.5 and take lopsided action on Denver hoping for a Seattle win. Or go to 3, take lopsided action on Denver -2.5 AND take action on Sea +3 risking getting middled if the game fell on the 3. Option #1 was less risky.