But should you hedge?

A flood of Denver money out here so far. Played Seattle +2.5 and love it. Hawks can heat it up off the edge and defend the pass exceptionally well.

Seattle has played 4 AFC teams, all 4 teams were in the AFC South, which consist of Jacksonville, Houston, Indianapolis, and Tennessee. Came out 3-1, with 116 PF and 84 PA Denver played 4 teams from the NFC, all from the NFC East, Giants, Philly, Dallas and Washington. They ended up 4-0, with a total of 189 PF and 85 PA.

I know cool beans right?

Denver rolls

Love Seattle in the bowl. Love love love Seattle.

Shipped NE(+12) & SF(+10).

I'm all over DEN(-2.5) here. GL all.

Also, LOL Lance.

Given that it is forecast to be a cold weather Superbowl, Seattle has the best defense in the NFL and the last two Denver games have fallen way below the points total, i'm surprised to see the points set as high as 47.

This might be the biggest sucker bowl of all time. Everyone I talked to just loves Denver here and I think Seattle is the better all around team. Denver played a good game vs a no-as-good-as-you-think Patriots team, and Seattle beat a pretty damn good 49ers team.

Like I said, Seattle all day.

All over DEN(-2.5) -108. We'll see. GL all.

I'm waiting on the weather that week. Not sure if that's stupid, but I want to see what GOAT has to play in.

You'll have to hope the offense doesn't adopt the 'this is the biggest stage we've played on, what are we supposed to be doing here' approach of last night's first quarter!

All of you Seattle lovers are forgetting something. The Superbowl isn't in Seattle.

I locked in Denver +375 about a month ago.

It was a large position I built and thus I should have hedged a long time ago, but didn't. I finally did getting Seattle some +120 and the rest at +110. I've left about an average size bet ride on Broncos and hedged out the rest.

They played just as well at MetLife

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agreed
payton is a media darling and Denver will be hopelessly overbet
i have the Hawks in a futures bet and very happy
Sagarin ratings on a nnuetral field gives seatlle a 3 point edge and they have a 2 point edge on strength of schedule
i think denver run stop numbers are misleading who runs when your down more than two possessions?
the beast was lightly used yesterday and with two weeks to heal he will pound the broncos into ponies
skittles for all my friends

I felt like a traitor betting yesterdays games. Going against NE and SF after they were my 2 biggest plays the week before. No team loyalty, "Cash moves everything around me." Trying to decide now whether to back Lance Fedora's SB pick or consult my banned friend again, Early Cuyler who has been en fuego in the playoffs...as usual. FWIW when the SB line opened, EC said Denver would get action and it would likely go to 2 and maybe even 3.

Do you have any Pug puppies from that unholy union pictured in your avatar? I am in the market.

Wow Bodog has Denver -1, most sites holding at -2. See a couple 2.5's

I think people are having a tough time capping this. I'm still waiting on the weather, but I'd probably snap something like Seattle +3.5 if it comes up.

All the public money won't be coming in til closer to game time so I think it still has some plenty of time to get to Sea +3 or maybe better

I was so baked after sweeping the games last night, I saw the opener and realized immediately it would move. Instead of snapping Denver at the good price, my marijuana addled mind said, "I will let it get to +3 then take Seattle." Now I see public and Peyton money backing Denver, but sharper action likely on Seattle which should keep the line below 3, and definitely below 3.5.

Seattle +2.5 on 5Dimes now.

What makes you say that early move was public money? when i look at moves i usually think early money is sharp money for the most part. could they be juking? moving it to +2 hoping the public drives it to 3. sure. my gut says its not going to 3 so i took the 2.5. i guess i could have waited.

what r the chances this goes to 3? i mean ****, we havent even seen the public money yet, right?

Good point. A friend and I were talking before the opener was released and I said the spread should be Denv- 3, so my initial reaction was to jump on Denver at +1.5/E, but I would rather have Seattle +3, so will wait for that although it may never get to 3.

Three is such a critical number, around 10% push probability and worth close to $.25 when it moves from 2.5 to 3, so doubt it will get there. But all the Peyton build up hype and storyline might push more casual money in Denver's direction.

Somewhere poor Sharkey is saying, "When are these bastards gonna finally win the big one for Myra Kraft?"



Originally Posted by PlayaHata1 View Post

Although maybe you were overwhelmed by Sharkey's superbowl pick logic:

"But I'm taking the pats here for two reasons:
-Billichick is a genius when playing opponents twice in the same season. similar to what he did to the broncos in the second meeting. I think he will come up with something to slow down the giants offense and outcoach tom coughlin here.
-A friend of mine is close to the patriots team and hangs around the pats facility and tells me that the team is really fired up and wants to really win the superbowl in memory of Myra kraft. (Not sure if that changes anything but I'll consider it another +)"