Well by all accounts the 2 scenarios I hear are it stays at 2 or 2.5, or goes down. I haven't heard anyone justify 3 or 3.5. So sounds like you can wait, only upside.

Obviously the public wins a lot, sometimes the Patriots and Cowboys do win by 14. In this instance too, the "edges" are tiny, and the game is going to be decided by a fair amount of luck too. One big PI call could do it for example.

Does anyone know if Sharps are mostly staying away, or do they *really* like the line? Seems like a crazy sharp line, I don't see how much consensus can really be made.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but if the line opened at Seattle -2 and public money influence moved the line to Den -2, wouldn't simple logic say that the true line is closer to a pick or Seattle being the slight favorite than what is is now? It's Den -2 only because of the money.

I think there are 2 things wrong with that statement, but I'd like a more experienced person to elaborate.

Does it really matter? You are still going to be a loser either way.

A dime is shorthand for $1000. 10 dimes equals $10k plus vig. If I win my bet I'll have a nice little roll to go play around in Vegas for a couple of days in March. If I lose, oh well. I am not a pro. I like to bet for fun. I bet maybe 4 or 5 times a year on big events. I choose not to spend my days scouring NCAAB lines to try to catch a weak line on a Pepperdine v. UC Davis game or whatever... Not my idea of fun. But to each their own.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if there were only sharps out there, the books would have no reason to stay open, right?. Don't you want us losing money? Stop tapping on the glass Sab, you're scaring away all us fish.

I also spend my money on expensive coffee and a hell of a lot of other stuff I probably don't need. That's the nice part about money, I get to spend it. I can't take it with me when it's all over.

oh.

well since i didn't know that, can you also tell me how to catch a weak line on a Pepperdine v. UC Davis game? like, what are you looking for?

Your posts are awesomer!

Are you implying I wouldn't be open to change my opinion or agree with another person's analysis in a post where I actually asked for different perspectives?

wtf is wrong with you people?

I was implying Rafiki is the dumbest person on this message board though I am not familiar yet with your posts so I may be wrong.

Man you guys are rough

We are basically a bunch of impotent, socially awkward joyless men who are so stifled by the sheer horror of their shortcomings that they seek the only outlet available for their deviant misanthropic self loathing. Said outlet being this message board.

Are you in or out?

March Madness lines are far from the sharpest of the year, I think. They seem pretty well-tailored to the betting public, I think if you just fired every dog and under you'd show a profit.

Conventional wisdom would say that the flood of Denver money on game day should drive this line to at least -2.5-120. When the Seattle money comes in a lot of it will be sharp. It will come in real late after public has moved the line to the max.

Word.

The sharps have shown what side they like. They will play +2.5 +100

That WOULD be a frustrating search, considering they're not scheduled to play this year.
But, since you invoked their name, I've got UC Davis losing at Cal Poly tomorrow night, 75-59. Pepperdine is off until Saturday.

Sabanata, let's set aside your Napoleon complex for a minute, but we'll get back to it later. I'm sure that regardless of where you live in the world, you're not particularly fond of people telling you how to spend your hard earned money. If you took your girlfriend or wife out for a pretty standard $100 dinner, you'd probably laugh if some bleary-eyed mouth breather walked up to your table to tell you that you could have cooked those dishes at home and saved yourself the 100 bucks. Whether it's a $100 massage, $100 worth of sushi, or a $100 bet, it's entertainment dollars in the average person's budget. The enjoyment that a casual bettor might get from cheering in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl, the squarest day of the year, is pretty innocent fun. I don't see anyone trying to tout in here or anything malicious like that. Nobody in my circle of friends is missing rent to root for the under on the anthem, nobody is passing up buying diapers for kid #2 because they bought 3 Super Bowl squares. Incidentally if you have any elite sharp advice on buying squares, pm me!

So now enter Sabanata, with one of the most ruthless Napoleon complexes I've ever seen on 2p2. Literally for years, you've been banging the same drum: "I'm a sharp, you're an idiot". How many times do you need to say it to feel better about yourself? Honest question, I can't even fathom the level of insecurity a man needs to feel to have to parrot the same lines over and over. Frankly at this point Sab, all it does is make me smile. I'll be sure to play some sort of 4-5 prop parlay on Sunday, and if I'm lucky enough to hit it, I'll use the money to send someone to give you a big hug. Something tells me that more often than not, you could really use one.

Enjoy the game! Ps:

He bet 10.4M on Broncos -2 with 7 books and 4 offshore books.

http://beta.thescore.com/nfl/news/418355

What a sweat.

Man down! Man down!

read this, and while i realize he bets huge amounts several times a year (and for whatever reason, usually ends up on the sharp side), betting it over 11 different books makes me a little squinty-eyed.

he got -2 at every book? and while i realize the 10.4 number doesn't mean he had to get -104 at each, and that 10.4 might be a rough estimate, but spreading it over 11 books....meh. are there even 11 books that would take ~$1,000,000 each, even on the SB?

also, $8 million in credit.

yeesh

Look at my number of posts. I've been in.

This particular forum is a bit not nicer than usual. Politics is pretty tough though.