Hypothetical that my friends have been talking about:

Imagine two guys work together to come up with a model to beat some sport in particular. They spend a good deal of time on it, back-test it, and find out that it works pretty well.

The Nerd has put most of the hours into creating the model and is responsible for the intellectual property side of things. He brings statistics, IT skills and database knowledge to the table - without him the model will be difficult to update or tweak.

The Bettor has 10 years experience as a winning professional sports bettor. He brings knowledge of betting patterns (and line movements), line shopping, and practical skills around dealing with sportsbooks to the table. Without him the model will be harder to execute and will result in lower profits.

How should the profits be split if the Bettor puts up 100% of the capital (free-roll for the Nerd)? What if the initial capital is 50-50 from both sides?

If you're smart enough to come up with said model, you'll be smart enough to work out a deal that you both like

I think you'll find that as soon as the "Nerd" has enough capital to go his own way, he will.

I read something a while back about the structure of Hong Kong betting syndicates and how the head modellers/statisticians tend to go off on their own after a while (ie: it's +EV to start with when they have the skills, but little capital... but as soon as this changes it's --EV for them).

The same source also talked about how the head modellers/statisticians have to go to very elaborate ends to keep secret the exact factors they are using as features for their model(s), for fear that the other modellers/statisticians (and/or those charged with data-entry) run off and start their own syndicate...

I can't remember the exact source (will have a look later), but it was a really interesting read and explained the whole structure; right from the top modellers/statisticians down to lowly "video watchers" who were only paid about $10k a year...

Juk

Expose the nerd to expensive alcohol, women, and drugs and if he responds favorably he will never build a big enough bankroll to go out on his own. This is a simple business 101 model borrowed from Ike Turner's now classic work "Pimp Methodology".

There is a certain romantic appeal of contrasts here, the grizzled, old school, professional gambler and the younger, sleek computer nerd. I hope they find a way to work it out and agree to make money together. How much more annual salary does the professional gambler expect to make extra utilizing the "nerd's" system/technology?

sleek? doubtful

Frail, pale, and thin as a toothpick?

For someone who is a long time professional gambler and has outperformed or equaled nerds throughout his academic history, what computer skills or languages would you suggest learning?

10%-20% freeroll seems appropriate

No it doesnt

What is your proposal? If I can ever get over my simultaneous disdain for excessive money and collaboration(working with others reminds me of what a real job might like), I can envision teaming up with someone with greater computer knowledge eventually.

I cannot imagine how the professional gambler in this example is not going to be able to clearly define some of the statistical variables imperative for the "nerd's" system. Also how much extra annual income does the professional expect to make using this system instead of his own techniques?

I'm not proposing anything, but even that whacky old coot early_cuyler wouldn't be delusional enough to think he could give out a 20% free roll and still come out ahead. In my personal experience, Ive used (and have been used) people to gnome accounts for me. The typical deal is usually either a 10% free roll with make up, or you just split action anywhere from like 25 to 50%

LOL Poogs. Maybe try pulling out a calculator for once instead of just making up numbers.

I know you're an angry guy with some weird thing against me but I didn't make anything up.

Care to show your work on how a 20% freeroll would be -EV?

You're saying giving one isn't?

I guess it could be but that seems like way too big of a chunk to give up

No one really gave any justification for the numbers mentioned so far - what would be people's best guess for profit share/freeroll percentage in this situation?

fine. bout 3 fiddy

No way in hell I'd bet some nerd's model if he wasn't willing to take any risk.

+1 Real men with confidence in what they are doing are more than willing to risk their own money on their abilities.

That's is what makes the current state of poker so sad. So much stake chasing nowadays, no one able to stand on their own two feet often bouncing around from backer to backer, leaving stakers and backers to partially fund their mediocre careers of skimming by.

The poker guys can be laughable, "hey bet my picks"..."why?"...."because I always win." My thinking turns back on them when I say, "Since you always win, bet against me?"....Deafening silence, basically they are wanting a freeroll on **** -EV action instead of actually consulting the person who does actually win, degenish behavior to the core. Smart investors ride smart gamblers to the bank regardless of how they share profits.

what do you bet, peso?

like, what is your most +EV sport to bet?

Whatever I am immersed in at the time, which is prepping for NASCAR now. NCAAF is also very lucrative especially early in the year.

Might put in some March Madness action on my own. But so far I have been only tailing Robert Ferringo's NCAAB action this year as I trust him very much, especially in this sport, and I get the picks ASAP, not on the Doc time delay.

I stay away from boxing after getting robbed on Pacman-Bradley, that bad beat had me in a fighting mood. I also haven't bet hockey in a few years, last time was tailing Ferringo's picks when he was outsourcing them to a specialist and that was a very good year, although I have lost a little since own my own meager efforts. I also love almost anyway type of future markets.

I am not shilling for Ferringo either, just happen to know how he operates and the kind of person he is. Just haven't had the time to do my own NCAAB, and Bob is pretty boss at it and he is a stand up G with lots of heart.

Actually I should be in here shilling for Bob. He is old school, not a quitter or a whiner, but a fighter and a winner. If more people were like him the world would be a better place.

.