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Old 03-01-2013, 08:04 PM   #51
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Re: Boxing

Also like Borger/Abril to go over... rounds/price very. It's about -180 for 10.5 rounds though. If you want to be extremely safe, I even think there's value in not Abril inside distance at like -290.

I really, really, really like the over on the Hatton/ van Heerden fight. Was hoping for better than -320, but that's still quite acceptable. There might actually be more value in not van Heerden inside distance at -391, because to me your basically betting against some kind of severe injury or cut on Hatton, or the best offensive display of van Heerden's career.
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Old 03-08-2013, 03:21 PM   #52
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Re: Boxing

Really liking Jan Zaveck +525 tomorrow. I think Keith Thurman sucks and as long as Zaveck can stay out of the way of a few big punches he can outbox him.
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Old 03-08-2013, 03:37 PM   #53
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Re: Boxing

Magomed Abdusalamov vs. Bisbal should go under 5.5. It's worth laying -300. They are both complete bombers with good, or in Mogo's case, great KO rates and less than perfect defense and chins. Mogo has one 4 rounder, one 3 rounder and everything else has been done in the first or second.
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Old 03-08-2013, 04:22 PM   #54
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Re: Boxing

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Originally Posted by twoblack9s View Post
Really liking Jan Zaveck +525 tomorrow. I think Keith Thurman sucks and as long as Zaveck can stay out of the way of a few big punches he can outbox him.
Was +700 at Paddy, but it's moving down at those books now, so I guess +550 is the best we'll see here in the US.

Thurman does not suck but there's no way he should be such a favorite in this one.
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Old 03-09-2013, 10:35 AM   #55
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Re: Boxing

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Was +700 at Paddy, but it's moving down at those books now, so I guess +550 is the best we'll see here in the US.

Thurman does not suck but there's no way he should be such a favorite in this one.
I was expecting Zaveck to be somewhere about +250, +300, so I am thrilled at the current price
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Old 03-10-2013, 12:57 AM   #56
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Re: Boxing

People only seem to award legendary status to fighters of old. Bernard Hopkins is a genuine legend. I can't believe someone can be so masterful at that age. Cloud wasn't too bad either - he just didn't know where he was. I said it earlier in this thread but Rigondeaux is definitely the real deal and is going to show up Donaire badly.
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Old 03-10-2013, 04:13 AM   #57
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Re: Boxing

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I was expecting Zaveck to be somewhere about +250, +300, so I am thrilled at the current price
Oh well, worth a shot. We now know that Thurman has good stamina and good punch resistance. He is going to be tough for anyone. Unlikely to see another decent price on him unless he fights a Klit. I obviously agree that this line was out of whack. After a complete shutout of a guy like Zaveck, hard to imagine him being betable for a while.
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Old 03-10-2013, 10:09 PM   #58
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Re: Boxing

Yea I was impressed by Keith Thurman for the first time. Still don't regret my bet. But after 3 rounds I knew it was over. Zaveck was never in the fight
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Old 03-16-2013, 06:43 AM   #59
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Re: Boxing

This weekend: Bradley by Decision. It's -177 at the moment. This just seems like a decent price on the most likely outcome. Bradley's power, especially at this weight, is not much of a concern and he's the huge favorite against a quality guy who has never been out. Would love to have the technical decision in there. Euros can get it, but 5 Dimes are clever girls.

Big play on Vargas over Omotoso at -230. Vargas is a class above Omotoso and there is a gulf between their prior opposition. Omotoso hits hard, but he breaks guys down, rather than delivering shocking KOs. I don't think Lopez will let him get close and he'll constantly disrupt Omotoso's sloppy footwork. Vargas is the guy Top Rank wants and has the higher work rate.

In the fuuuuuuuture.... plugged Tyson Fury -600 over Cunningham into some parlays. Though it would be ****ing hilarious for British Boxing Savior # 2 to bite the dust immediately after his counterpart, I don't know how Cunningham wins. Fury is so much bigger and he has enough agility and skill to charge forward to a comfortable decision, as he has zero concerns about Cunningham's power. Cunningham might have his moments, but can he really dodge and slick his way to 7 out of 12 rounds against a cash cow? This is how you make matches for your rising star.
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Old 03-17-2013, 10:59 AM   #60
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Re: Boxing

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This weekend: Bradley by Decision. It's -177 at the moment. This just seems like a decent price on the most likely outcome. Bradley's power, especially at this weight, is not much of a concern and he's the huge favorite against a quality guy who has never been out. Would love to have the technical decision in there. Euros can get it, but 5 Dimes are clever girls.

Big play on Vargas over Omotoso at -230. Vargas is a class above Omotoso and there is a gulf between their prior opposition. Omotoso hits hard, but he breaks guys down, rather than delivering shocking KOs. I don't think Lopez will let him get close and he'll constantly disrupt Omotoso's sloppy footwork. Vargas is the guy Top Rank wants and has the higher work rate.

In the fuuuuuuuture.... plugged Tyson Fury -600 over Cunningham into some parlays. Though it would be ****ing hilarious for British Boxing Savior # 2 to bite the dust immediately after his counterpart, I don't know how Cunningham wins. Fury is so much bigger and he has enough agility and skill to charge forward to a comfortable decision, as he has zero concerns about Cunningham's power. Cunningham might have his moments, but can he really dodge and slick his way to 7 out of 12 rounds against a cash cow? This is how you make matches for your rising star.
Better to be lucky than good I guess. Nice wins.
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Old 03-17-2013, 01:06 PM   #61
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Re: Boxing

What a sick fight tho.

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In the fuuuuuuuture.... plugged Tyson Fury -600 over Cunningham into some parlays. Though it would be ****ing hilarious for British Boxing Savior # 2 to bite the dust immediately after his counterpart, I don't know how Cunningham wins. Fury is so much bigger and he has enough agility and skill to charge forward to a comfortable decision, as he has zero concerns about Cunningham's power. Cunningham might have his moments, but can he really dodge and slick his way to 7 out of 12 rounds against a cash cow? This is how you make matches for your rising star.
Also this is lol, you don't see how the guy who arguably beat Adamek twice, TKO'd Huck and beat Wlodarczyk wins over a vastly overated HW in Fury in NY?
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Old 03-17-2013, 02:15 PM   #62
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Re: Boxing

I guess Fury is overrated by some, underrated by others. But the last Adamek fight is part of my thinking here. It was a brilliant fight by Steve, but the judges punished him anyway. Is he going to do better against a bigger, busier, faster HW who has even more money making potential? I'm sure he'll have his moments but I just don't see him winning a majority of rounds legitimately, let alone on the cards. I definitely don't see how he can do better than he did against Adamek.

He TKO'd Huck at 198. Fury is about 250. I don't think the fight being in NY has much to do with it. Judges like the man who walks forward and makes money. Again, see Adamek/Cunningham II.

I wouldn't be TOO upset about losing this one, though. If I didn't bet it, I would be rooting hard for Cunningham.

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Better to be lucky than good I guess. Nice wins.
Me-ow.
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Old 03-23-2013, 07:06 AM   #63
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Re: Boxing

Let's try another decision prop on Arthur Abraham at +131. AA hasn't carried his power up in terms of KO production but I think he can use it to control Stieglitz again. It'll be difficult for the latter to tap and move his was to 7 out of 12 rounds. Especially since one of the judges also did the last fight and had it 116-112, AA.
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Old 04-06-2013, 08:05 AM   #64
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Re: Boxing

I like Magdaleno and Martinez to go over 9.5 at -250. Got some money down, was kind of waiting to put some more and 5d just took all the fights in China off the board. Anyway, if you can get it, Magdaleno is mobile, likes to nullify inside and is juiced to the gills, so he'll be hard to stop. But Rocky has never been stopped either and Magdaleno, the strong favorite, is not a great finisher.
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Old 04-12-2013, 12:59 PM   #65
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Re: Boxing

Any opinions on Rigo/Nonito? I put a small, small recreational bet on Rigo. So little that I can still root for Nonito, just because boxing needs stars.

Real play this weekend, Rico Ramos -165 vs. Oscar Gonzalez on FNF. Ramos has the superior background, superior level of opposition. True, he hasn't looked great against guys at the contender/championship level, but based on what little footage of Gonzalez I found and his record, he is not at that level. Ramos carries it on defense at athleticism.
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Old 04-13-2013, 11:16 PM   #66
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Re: Boxing

I got Rigo by dec. at 4/1, don't see him knocking out Nonito.
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Old 04-17-2013, 08:41 PM   #67
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Re: Boxing

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I got Rigo by dec. at 4/1, don't see him knocking out Nonito.
Nicely done.

This weekend, in addition to Fury, taking Canelo by dec. at +145. A bit on Canelo to win and the over, just to be "safe."

I think it'll be close. Might give a slight edge to Trout, offset by the chance of a Canelo KO (though I don't expect that). However, I think there is a very real chance that Trout needs to dominate to get a decision.
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Old 04-19-2013, 07:34 AM   #68
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Re: Boxing

Trout should hit harder than he does. His build is deceiving. When Canelo doesn't fear the ko I think he'll be all over him and dominate a pretty bloody fight. Points looks good. Should be a banger. We should be grateful these two are meeting.
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Old 04-20-2013, 02:51 PM   #69
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Re: Boxing

Yeah, though one concern is that when Canelo doesn't fear a guy's power, he can just get careless and let the guy score, figuring he'll just beat him up anyway. Don't want him to give too much away. But the analysis I'm seeing from others is encouraging, including Trout backers who seem to think Canelo is an unskilled, mindless plodder.

At the moment, Fury by 12 round dec. is +424 on 5d. Pretty much has to be value on that, especially if Fury tries to jab him to death. He even had a quote during all his retirement bluster about how, it can go the distance and still be a dominant win for him. Didn't put a ton on because I'm already on Tyson to win and the over.
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Old 04-20-2013, 06:06 PM   #70
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Re: Boxing

I hated betting on Fury bot got in on that dec prop. got 2 hits in one yest, and then it went back up and got another in one today but they didn't change it until the start of the fight.. would've bet more. But yeah, Cunningham was careless there when he got ko'd but you could feel he started to feel the punches from the 5th onwards.

Going big on Canelo too, I got awesome prices on him too from -155 to -185. It being in Texas plays a factor too, so aggression alone could potentially win it i it's close but I don't see why a lot of people think Trout'll just outbox him, he had problems against a semi shot Cotto until the second half of the fight.
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Old 04-21-2013, 12:02 AM   #71
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Re: Boxing

If Canelo took a breather in the 6th so he could go big in the 7th I'm an even bigger fan. His superman punching was on point. 80-0??
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Old 04-21-2013, 12:10 AM   #72
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Re: Boxing

Trout was never going to win a decision here after seeing the scores. Basically if he was up until 116-112 close for him from an unbiased point of view, without him winning rounds clearly, he was going to lose. Canelo kd made it a lock from the 7th, esp with the open scoring and hearing the corners.
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Old 04-21-2013, 07:36 AM   #73
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Re: Boxing

I was definitely hoping for Canelo to be spotted a couple rounds by the judges, and he was. However, I think he was the clear winner. It was close and Trout did a good job. But, even if the judges are unbias, if you fight moving backwards, you need to really do something to win in the pros. It was Canelo who was slipping and blocking punches, landing the bigger shots AND moving forward most of the fight. He really impressed me.



What a mongo Tyson is, though. All of his showboating in R1 had me scared because it wasn't even calculated. Like, usually, you do that **** planning and poised to move. This tard just plants his feet in the ground and sticks his chin out, screaming at the top of his lungs and wasting his breath. Since he pulled it out anyway, I'm glad USS planted him on his ass.
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Old 04-24-2013, 12:07 PM   #74
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Re: Boxing

In addition to Fernando Guerrero, I like Danny Garcia by decision at +507. For all the times you've seen Zab do the chicken dance in gifs and videos, it was still only one event in real life. He is not particularly easy to stop. Kostya, Khan and Cotto did it. Matthysse, among others, could not. Garcia is not a blitzer like Khan and his looping power shots don't match up well to Zab's style, though Danny has developed a nice straight right that could be trouble. I expect him to win, and I expect the judges to favor him (the fight being in NY doesn't matter as much as the money being in Garcia) if it does get to them. I think there's value here.
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Old 05-11-2013, 08:58 AM   #75
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Re: Boxing

I LOVE Gonzales vs. Burns tonight. +405
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