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Old 01-30-2013, 09:52 AM   #26
ES2
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Re: Boxing

UD Geale, though the judges were very generous to Mundine.

Thanks for the info... would be nice to travel the world betting against overmatched domestic heroes. It did get down to -255 on 5d and I had a similar reaction. Never dreamed that much money would talk itself into Mundine. So I guess the books made out nicely too.
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Old 01-30-2013, 06:15 PM   #27
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Re: Boxing

I agree that the judges were generous. There was a huge difference in class. Geale could remain an underlay in the future, not the most exciting personality or boxing style for the causal fans, but has some serious skill.

Huge money come for Geale when the odds were first posted, then they just drifted to Mundine right up until fight time. Geale at -212 was the best i saw the odds get to here
Geale by decision got out to +175, so i averaged up to +150

Next fight i have in my sights is Soliman v Sturm. I have a good handle on Soliman, need to watch a few more of Sturm's fights. My initial thoughts are Soliman could be great value in Germany, but his only way to win is by decision. In my opinion Germany is the worst country for controversial hometown decisions in the world
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Old 01-31-2013, 11:44 AM   #28
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Re: Boxing

I can't imagine a scenario where Soliman beats Sturm. If they're going to rob someone in Germany, I don't think they rob Sturm. I think this is a very clear decision win for Sturm.
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Old 02-01-2013, 05:25 PM   #29
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Re: Boxing

Spinks/Molina over 8.5, which is currently -145 or better out of the US.

This line makes no sense at all. So much so that it makes me nervous. Spinks is virtually never KOing Molina and is a massive dog. Molina has never KOed anyone other than fringe professionals. It's a critical fight for both. Spinks was KOed last time out but showed great heart and survival skills to make it as long as he did.
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Old 02-01-2013, 06:24 PM   #30
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Re: Boxing

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Spinks/Molina over 8.5, which is currently -145 or better out of the US.

This line makes no sense at all. So much so that it makes me nervous. Spinks is virtually never KOing Molina and is a massive dog. Molina has never KOed anyone other than fringe professionals. It's a critical fight for both. Spinks was KOed last time out but showed great heart and survival skills to make it as long as he did.
Hilarious. I just sent you a request on gchat to talk about this EXACT thing. I got this at -125 this morning (-150 now), and was absolutely dumbfounded by it. I can't believe this line. Makes me think something fishy might be going on.

Neither guy with the power to mess your hair up, seems like the OVER should be juiced out of this world.
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Old 02-01-2013, 07:31 PM   #31
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Re: Boxing

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Originally Posted by 55555 View Post
I agree that the judges were generous. There was a huge difference in class. Geale could remain an underlay in the future, not the most exciting personality or boxing style for the causal fans, but has some serious skill.

Huge money come for Geale when the odds were first posted, then they just drifted to Mundine right up until fight time. Geale at -212 was the best i saw the odds get to here
Geale by decision got out to +175, so i averaged up to +150

Next fight i have in my sights is Soliman v Sturm. I have a good handle on Soliman, need to watch a few more of Sturm's fights. My initial thoughts are Soliman could be great value in Germany, but his only way to win is by decision. In my opinion Germany is the worst country for controversial hometown decisions in the world
Hope you went with it.

Certainly some straight **** just went down.

Sturm wins the fight, Buffer starts to announce that Sturm won....then says that Soliman won.

I would have never imagined that Sturm would win the fight, and then get robbed at home.
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Old 02-02-2013, 10:38 AM   #32
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Re: Boxing

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I got this at -125 this morning (-150 now), and was absolutely dumbfounded by it. I can't believe this line. Makes me think something fishy might be going on.
Turns out it was just free money. The only thing I can think of is that everyone was so preoccupied with the Super Bowl that it slipped through the cracks. Even so, all you had to do was look at each guy's record... oh well, gift horse.

Don't know what the frick happened with Sturm. Went to bed after the first few rounds thinking it was over. Oh well. I had a $10 recreational bet on that one, so no big deal. Not surprised Soliman put in a good showing. Very surprised Sturm could lose that decision, though. Hope you played it 5555555.
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Old 02-02-2013, 05:59 PM   #33
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Re: Boxing

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Not surprised Soliman put in a good showing. Very surprised Sturm could lose that decision, though. Hope you played it 5555555.
I didn't play it. I figured even if Soliman won he would get robbed! Looks like I was a bit off on that one. Soliman always puts on a good showing, he so awkward to fight and usually not very entertaining. For this reason he has had alot of trouble finding fights over the years. I think Geale will give up the belt to find a bigger fight rather than fight Soliman and I don't blame him.
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Old 02-06-2013, 08:29 PM   #34
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Re: Boxing

I like Botha vs. Sonny Boy Williams for a small bet. It's a novelty fight, but Botha still fights pretty high level opposition normally. He can't beat them, but he can give them a decent match. He's still a pro boxer with a wealth of experience and skill nearly on par with his gut. Sonny Bill is an incredible physical specimen, but he is a Rugby player who has fought cans up till his last fight against a marginal pro. I don't throw the term "can" around. We're talking about obese men in their thirties making pro debuts, or with a handful of fights.

The line has moved back to -110, but it's bouncing around. Opened 130, went down to -110, back up to +130, back down to -110. I think you'll probably see + again sometime before the fight. Obviously, not going to put a huge bet on this sideshow. Botha looks pretty fit and I think he's taking it seriously, but you never know. Still, if they want to lay you odds on a pro vs. an am I think you're kind of obligated to put a little something on the pro.
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Old 02-08-2013, 06:20 AM   #35
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Re: Boxing

The aussies don't mind trading a ~+160 on Botha.
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Old 02-08-2013, 07:36 AM   #36
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Re: Boxing

Wow, fight was supposed to be 12 rnds but it magically turns out to be 10 as the guy is about to be knocked out. Amazing.
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Old 02-08-2013, 03:39 PM   #37
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Re: Boxing

Yeah. Just when you thought there wasn't another way to get screwed on a boxing bet.

Those who are unaware might find it interesting, independently of bad beat bitching. It's just a completely novel scenario, and perhaps the most flagrant cheating I've ever seen.

http://www.iol.co.za/sport/boxing/wh...8#.URVT36VEGSp

Short version: House fighter SBW is winning, but hurt in the 9th round. At this point... yes, during the fight... it is changed from a 12 rounder to a 10 rounder. SBW is out on his feet in the 10th and escapes with a decision.

Anyway, on Saturday I like Miskirtchian vs. Evensen over -260. Short version of this: just look at their boxrecs. Did watch some video and it only confirmed what the numbers say. If there is a KO in this fight, which is a big if, it is very likely to be by attrition, quite possibly after 9.5 rounds.

I also like a very small play on Evensen to win at -155.
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Old 02-08-2013, 04:30 PM   #38
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Re: Boxing

The bets on this should be void imo. Emailed betfair but they said bets on 3way results stand, but others would be void, as per their policy on bouts with altered rounds. I hope they do the right thing and void all, but they prob won't.

Botha finishes him 90%+ of the time with 2 rounds left, as SBW was clearly out on his feet... but what's sickening is this was not announced before the match, or even during the early stages. This was confirmed with 1 min left in the 10th round, after SBW took some big punches in the 9th and was getting battered in the 10th. I just don't see how such blatant corruption is even feasible.
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Old 02-08-2013, 07:07 PM   #39
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Re: Boxing

Against you tomorrow, man. I'm on Miskirtchian (+120) small.
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Old 02-08-2013, 07:25 PM   #40
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Re: Boxing

Gonna put a very small play on Nate Campbell (+425). No way he goes down without a fight.

Kiko/Frampton will probably be the best fight of the weekend. At +500, it's hard not to like Kiko. But, if Frampton is as good as advertised, he should get the win.
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Old 02-08-2013, 07:50 PM   #41
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Re: Boxing

looks like you got waffle stomped ES2

http://www.tkoboxing.net/handicapping-boxing-judges
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Old 02-09-2013, 03:30 AM   #42
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Re: Boxing

Quote:
Originally Posted by LasFuentes View Post
I just don't see how such blatant corruption is even feasible.
yeah this is ridiculous even by boxing standards.
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Old 02-11-2013, 04:26 AM   #43
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Re: Boxing

Tony Thompson +650 over David Price. I like Price and expect him to win. I won't even mind losing here if Price goes on to be a mainstream star. More or less tailing Dwyer on this one. I liked his argument and the price is right for a small play. This is a pretty big step up for Price and we could see his chin and/or stamina tested for the first time.
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Old 02-15-2013, 02:57 PM   #44
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Re: Boxing

Bika/Sjekloca OVER 7.5 rounds (-135)

Sjekloca +600

D-Hop -170
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Old 02-22-2013, 06:30 AM   #45
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Re: Boxing

Malik Scott +160 over Glazkov. Pretty universal theme here in that Glazkov just had a big win on TV, so people are high on him. Figure these guys are about equal in quality. It's a good matchup for Scott because they're both jabbers and Scott's is a bit quicker and he extends it much farther.

Also on Holt, though the price on him has fallen out since then. Forgot to post it here. Oh well. If you aren't in the US can still get him for +350 which is OK. 14 month layoff for Peterson, possibly no roids for Peterson and Holt's power provide enough factors in our favor.

I like Golota too. He's fighting another guy who is famous in Poland. They're both old and coming off multi-year layoffs. But Golota is the bigger star in an exhibition match and the far more accomplished boxer.
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Old 02-22-2013, 12:38 PM   #46
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Re: Boxing

Yeah, the Holt line looks ridiculous to me. Those two are about evenly matched. Peterson being the champion and the fight being in DC, I could understand him being -200 at most.

I am already on Holt but the odds are still good IMO.

I don't think there's any chance that Peterson is not on roids though. When you abuse roids for years, your body lowers its testoterone production. So at this point, he has no choice.

I love when these guys get caught taking synthetic testoterone and they say "But my doctor prescribed it for a medical condition. My body does not produce enough testosterone." Peterson is one of many athletes to give this excuse. The condition, in their cases, is of course caused by prolonged use of PEDs.

So I just don't see any chance he's not cheating. He'll try to be more careful about it this time though.
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Old 02-22-2013, 12:42 PM   #47
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Re: Boxing

Regarding the Thompson-Price fight, Thompson weighed in at a career high 262. I see this as bad news for Thompson backers, especially because he's 41 years old and has some mileage on him. His body might be failing or maybe he's not mentally ready for this fight.
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Old 02-23-2013, 10:52 AM   #48
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Re: Boxing

Good take on the roids. Still, the ring rust gave Holt a nice opportunity. Was feeling pretty good for a while there. Oh well.

Don't like the weigh in either. Perhaps this is why Thompson is 10-1 now. But even if you didn't like it before... I think you might put a little something now. Thompson can punch, these are big HW's and there are questions about Price's chin. That has to be worth 10-1, no?

They put props up for Scott/Glazkov, meaning you can get Scott by decision at +205, which is the better bet, I think.
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Old 02-23-2013, 06:55 PM   #49
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Re: Boxing

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Old 03-01-2013, 06:50 AM   #50
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Re: Boxing

Put a touch on Matt Hatton, who is available at +440 in the US right now. The guy he's fighting, van Heerden, is definitely better. He has better movement, volume and a better tool kit on offense.

However, Hatton punches slightly more efficiently to my eye and van Heerden's defense leaves a lot to be desired. I think his motion should protect him enough, but that's far from certain. And Hatton will land some big shots for sure. The line has gotten a bit out of hand for me. Van Heerden opened -260, got up to -620.
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