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Old 01-10-2013, 11:35 PM   #1
ES2
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Boxing

I saw an old thread on this with some good conversation. Maybe it can get going again. I've posted some picks on sports betting forums without much feedback, so I figured I'd try here.

For what it's worth, I did have about 50 posts here over several years prior to the hack. The only notable one was this:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/27...r-room-519217/

Getting back in with my old account was a pain so I just made a new one. I've gone from betting on boxing half assed, to doing it full assed with pretty good results, but I have a lot to learn.

So, my favorite upcoming bet is Danny Geale -350 vs. Anthony Mundine, Jan. 30th.

The first fight was just about the best case scenario. He got a knockdown. He was also slicker and a notch quicker than Geale. He won by SD, with some viewers believing he won and some believing Geale won. Well, Mundine is slowing down. His work rate is even lower and his reflexes are a bit diminished. He doesn't look shot to me, but he has been in with the likes of Bronco McKart, while Geale has climbed to the top of the division

Geale has gotten much better and is more focused and accurate with his high work rate, instead of just kind of flailing away like he did in the first fight. So we know with almost complete certainty that 1) Geale will work as much as in the first fight. 2)His work will be significantly more effective) 3)Mundine will work even less. It's less certain, but still highly likely that Mundine's work will be less effective, even if it's only because Geale is more polished and harder to hit. I think we're getting a break on the price because of the first result, but it's actually a nice piece of evidence in favor of Geale.

Finally, though I think Mundine is more of a household name in Australia, this is his last hurrah at age 37. He's been laughably calling out Floyd in a desperate bid for a final payday.

Geale is a guy with a real chance to be the true middleweight champion of the world. That would be like a once in a lifetime thing for an Australian fan. On top of that, he has several really big money fights down the road for not only his promoter and sanctioning body, but for the promoters of the other top MWs in a fairly deep glamour division. Let's say, somehow, it is close again. We KNOW Geal is going to be coming forward and we know he is going to throw literally about twice as much. This is the style that got him a decision against Sturm in Germany. Mundine is virtually never getting a close decision in these circumstances. I'm a pretty honest guy and I would feel all that pressure if I was a judge for sure. The scumbags who actually do the judging are going to have no problem giving every close round to Geale just on work and aggression, even IF the aggression is ineffective.
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Old 01-11-2013, 04:55 AM   #2
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Re: Boxing

Just filling this out. I don't see any reason to put in a bunch of long write ups right now, unless someone would like to see them. They're all done, it's just that it would be a lot to unload at once.

This weekend:

I like Ramos/Rios over 9.5 rounds at -230.

Dannie Williams to beat Carlos molina Jr. This is +180 now. It was +240. You might want to hold on and hope it bounces back up. In any case, this is a small play for me based on not having seen much of either guy.

Upcoming:

Carl Frampton -450 to beat Kiko Martinez.

Fernando Guerrero +550 to beat Peter Quillen.

80% of the people here know more about pure betting than I do, so do whatever you want with parlays or whatever. Just sharing my picks and hoping to get the topic going.
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Old 01-11-2013, 05:52 AM   #3
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Re: Boxing

Quote:
Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
So, my favorite upcoming bet is Danny Geale -350 vs. Anthony Mundine, Jan. 30th.

.
Do you know what the betting opened at? And yeah, agree Geale should handle Mundine pretty comfortably this time.
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Old 01-11-2013, 06:36 AM   #4
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Re: Boxing

Opened around -350 way ahead of time. Since then, I've seen it as low as -333 and as high as -450 (today, on 5D).
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Old 01-14-2013, 02:14 AM   #5
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Re: Boxing

same as you with the hack new account bit (my old account was this one without the number)

i guess cant pm until some amount of posts done, but want to contact u
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Old 01-14-2013, 07:35 PM   #6
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Re: Boxing

Sure. GamblorLA at yahoo
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Old 01-14-2013, 07:56 PM   #7
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Re: Boxing

cheers , email sent
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Old 01-15-2013, 02:52 PM   #8
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Re: Boxing

Geale is -303 on SIA

Max risk 275 though
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Old 01-18-2013, 05:52 PM   #9
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Re: Boxing

Couple plays.

Salido/Garcia under 9.5 rounds (+130)

Roman Martinez (+125)

Sergey Kovalev (-230)
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Old 01-18-2013, 06:58 PM   #10
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Re: Boxing

Good luck. I was looking at Salido/Garcia under as well. Salido can go down, Mikey can punch. Salido can punch, it's possible that Mikey's chin is not great (we don't really know one way or the other). Didn't pull the trigger, but might do a recreational bet on that.
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Old 01-18-2013, 07:14 PM   #11
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Re: Boxing

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Good luck. I was looking at Salido/Garcia under as well. Salido can go down, Mikey can punch. Salido can punch, it's possible that Mikey's chin is not great (we don't really know one way or the other). Didn't pull the trigger, but might do a recreational bet on that.
Yeah. Salido can take a beating, but like you said, Mikey can bang. I'm counting on this one being a throw down, and it ending somewhere around 6-8.
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Old 01-19-2013, 01:42 PM   #12
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Re: Boxing

Awkward, but actually went the other way after thinking about it. Over for -160.

Really, I just think that Mikey will be too slick to go away until possibly the later rounds and I don't think he is overwhelming enough to get Salido out. Basically, it seems like there should be a high chance of a KO at first glance, but it was hard for me to really imagine it when I weighted all the factors. Have been wrong many times before though.

I like your other plays. You got a pretty good price on Kovalev. He's -290 now on 5d. Not sure what will happen with Burgos/Martinez, so why not take the dog?
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Old 01-19-2013, 10:17 PM   #13
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Re: Boxing

Over is better priced now. Looks like I got it at the worst. Added some.

Salido +439 inside the distance as a semi-hedge. If Robert throws in the towel in the 11th, fap.
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Old 01-20-2013, 11:38 AM   #14
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Re: Boxing

Broken nose got there for the under.

Sergey wins easily, and a draw in Burgos/Martinez.

2-1
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Old 01-20-2013, 10:26 PM   #15
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Re: Boxing

Did you lose on the draw?

The broken nose was annoying since it killed my bet and kind of BS, because boxing matches don't get stopped on broken noses.

But setting my self interest aside, it didn't really bother me. It's a boxing match, not a Steven Seagal movie.

Obviously, did not expect 4 knockdowns, but felt somewhat vindicated. Mikey is just not going to overwhelm guys with barrages, Salido is not going out on one or two punches, even great ones. But the "**** happens" factor is always there in boxing.
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Old 01-20-2013, 10:42 PM   #16
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Re: Boxing

Yeah, the draw was a loss for me.

I was a little surprised it got stopped on a broken nose. That happens all the time and fighters continue. See - Marquez/Pacquiao 4.

I'm waiting for some odds on Kessler/Froch. Looking to play Froch at anything close to -150.
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Old 01-25-2013, 03:48 PM   #17
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Re: Boxing

Let's try another over. Dzinziruk and Vera over 9.5 -220. I'm not sure what the theory is on how either one of these guys gets a KO, except maybe near the end. Hopefully don't find out.
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Old 01-25-2013, 05:33 PM   #18
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Re: Boxing

Yeah, I think you're home with that over. Dzinziruk took a beating from Maravilla, and it still took him 8 to get Sergiy out of there. And Vera is damn sure no Sergio Martinez.

Vera's style seems to make him the more likely of the two to get stopped. But he hasn't been stopped in a long time, and has been in with some pretty good punchers.

I suppose a cut caused by a headbutt could happen, but aside from that, I like the play.

I'm gonna not let myself get caught up in Vera's wins over Sergio Mora, because I think his style was tailor fitted to beat Mora.

I'm gonna play Sergiy -160 here.
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Old 01-25-2013, 08:16 PM   #19
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Re: Boxing

I like that too and considered it strongly. The only issue really is that Sergiy is still somewhat new at this weight. I see some people saying he is just done. I don't really see that and think you're probably getting value because of it, and like you said, the Mora win. I just liked the over a little more.

BOL
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:34 AM   #20
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Re: Boxing

Yeah, definitely should have laid off that one, lol.

Looks like you squeaked in on that over!
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:06 AM   #21
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Re: Boxing

Yeah. I'm not gonna say that was a good pick, but I'll take it. He started really clobbering him with about 1:38 left and those 8 seconds felt like 5 minutes.

I don't think DZ ever really recovered from that first round. Very surprised that someone with that resume would let a guy like Vera land a punch like that in round 1. After that, he showed his skill advantage to stay alive, but he was just overpowered. I think it was a fitness issue too, since DZ would just stop for periods and let Vera go to town on him.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:38 AM   #22
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Re: Boxing

One more over on Mattysse/Dallas +185. It's only 7.5 rounds and I think there's a pretty good chance it takes that long for Lucas to track him down. Dallas is a good boxer, with a long jab, good foot speed and movement. Lucas has trouble getting to guys like this.

With the clash of styles, took a shot at the draw when I saw it was +7,000. Might go to this one, so if it happens the guy howling in the background will be me.
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Old 01-30-2013, 12:11 AM   #23
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Re: Boxing

Danny Geale down to -320 to win over Mundine on 5d. Probably the second biggest sports bet of my life. The biggest was Pac over Bradley, so hopefully it goes a bit better this time. Similarly, Mundine's only way to win the fight is either a very surprising KO, or a bad decision.
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Old 01-30-2013, 02:40 AM   #24
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Re: Boxing

Quote:
Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
Danny Geale down to -320 to win over Mundine on 5d. Probably the second biggest sports bet of my life. The biggest was Pac over Bradley, so hopefully it goes a bit better this time. Similarly, Mundine's only way to win the fight is either a very surprising KO, or a bad decision.
I'm on Geale by decision at +125 (2.25-1 aussie odds, not sure if i did the american odds right.) Can get better odds than that now, knew i should have waited for the public to get on, i reckon the odds will just get better now.

Geale won the last fight despite the decision loss and the gap between them is alot bigger now. Mundine is a household name in oz and Geale unknown outside of boxing fans. Despite Mundine largely being hated i think the public wont take short odds on a guy they don't know especially considering he lost the last fight. I guestimate that when either of these two fight world class opposition it goes to decision 75% of the time, nearly all knockouts by both were against rubbish opponents.

Last edited by 55555; 01-30-2013 at 02:57 AM.
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Old 01-30-2013, 02:45 AM   #25
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Re: Boxing

wow the the TAB (where the aussie squares bet, they have the most vig out of all aussie bookies) already have Geale out to -212 and still at least 5 hours till the fight

Edit: the TAB is the only agency allowed to have physical sports betting shops and terminals inside pubs/clubs. So despite the juice lines can be way off sometimes

Last edited by 55555; 01-30-2013 at 03:01 AM.
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