I was in vegas recently for 3 weeks and was there to bet sports and play poker. I did very bad betting sports but did okay in poker but still not a good trip.


There was a post i read in another forum that gave a review of all the las vegas sportsbook and how it fares. I'm not 100% sure if that person that post in that forum is the same guy that post here.


I also spoke to a person in another forum that said the key to betting sports is to pretty much bet every off number you can find. Such as if in basketball, you see +3 on most offshore books but you can get +3.5 at the same vig, you auto bet it because even though 1/2 point doesn't seem like much, when you add all those games you get 1/2 point better, there will be quite a few games where you win instead of push or push instead of lose. So even if you like the team laying 3 points, you have to bet the +3.5 based on principle. Does everyone agree/disagree with this?


Well the previous person who wrote a review of las vegas sportsbook mentioned that Cantor Sports was the worst because they are unbeatable due to their lines. I clearly see what he meant as i was in the vegas sportsbook and rarely did they ever have the best line in any game compared to the other books. The guys said books like Wynn, Stations and MGM properties are beatable in baseball especially their totals and runlines. What i did while i was there was look at the pinnacle line for totals in many baseball games and lets say i see under 8.5 at -120 juice. But when i log into vegasinsider, books like harrahs properties may have the under 8.5 at -115 or even -110. My question is, is this an auto bet everytime because one would be getting the under 8.5 at 5 or 10 cents better? Like for today, when i check pinny and book like harrahs properties, there are like 5 games where you can get a total at a lesser juice but majority of those games gets just 2 cents better. Like pinny shows under 8.5 at -117 whereas you can get under 8.5 at a harrahs property for -115. Would this be an autobet as well since its 2 cents better? Surely if all someone did was bet baseball totals at a property 5 cents better than pinnacle, would they ever get heat since they are betting steam?


I didn't have much time to analyze the results of this as i had to leave las vegas but from what i saw, there were more games that were won this way but i know its a small sample. My question is... would blindly betting totals where you get a line better than pinnacle be winning in the long term? The same as with runlines? I saw a few games where the runline for a team on pinny laying 1.5 was +132. But at one book, they had the same team -1.5 at +140 at an MGM property. There were some games where i saw pinny juice a total of 7 to like -127 and then some vegas properties like harrahs didn't even move the steam and you could get the over 7 at -115 for 12 cents better. But if you wait say 10 more minutes and when the game was almost starting, then it would move to -125. The same as if you see a moneyline for mlb where the fav is -140 and the underdog is +132. If you could find the underdog at +135, is this an auto bet? The same if you see the favorite at -135 say at Stations since its 5 cents better than pinnacle? And if yes, is there a formula people use such as if they beat pinny's line by 5 cents, they go x unit but if they get it 10 cents, they bet bigger? I would also assume most ppl wouldnt even make a wager if they get a total for baseball for 2 cents better than pinnacle?


Is it correct for me to use pinnacle as the standard since they are the number 1 book in the world? Not sure if its them or betfair.


Sorry for asking so many questions

i stopped reading halfway through, but yes, if you don't do anything else just try to beat the current pinny number.

edit: i'm not any good at this at all, but if i'm beating pinny by 15 cents every game, i'm doing a happy dance.

Better!

bob:

i stopped reading halfway through as well, also stopped watching wiper's gif halfway through, but op you're on the right track

wiper - that's hot.


op - If you browse some of the "wells" that are listed in the FAQ you can find more ideas on the importance of line-shopping...and the significance of being able to beat the closing-line, etc. Maybe some of the posters here who are most familiar with the content of the different wells can suggest the top couple that address this topic the best.

search how to estimate pinny's 'no-vig' lines.

OP you should visit this page and start using it: http://sportsbettingsites.org/bettin...ig-calculator/

MLB sides is indeed the one market where you should be looking to beat the pinny no-vig closer. They don't offer -103/-103 spreads on them for no reason. It's razor sharp.

cool thx for link

OP, you're already smarter than 99% of people that bet on sports. So prove it by reading a few good books before making your next bet. It will help you decide whether you want to try to make money with it, or just do it on a recreational basis.

Can you explain why you say this?


I'm a lifetime loser at sportsbetting but a winner at online poker though.


Was it because i talked about getting the better line at pinny?

most people think they are smarter than the market. you do not.

Okay so if I bet every single total/runline at a vegas sportsbook and get it better than the current line at pinnacle, would you say that is smart to do as in blindly betting it? The thing is if a book has -110 on under 7 at a book like caesars, but its -113 at pinnacle, to me, you would be getting the under 7 at 3 cents better. Would you say thats still worthy of a bet?


I'm thinking this. Bet everything you see that is at least 5 cents off. Meaning if you see -110 under 7 at Caesars and its currently -115 under 7 at pinny, then bet it. But if say you see -110 under 7 at caesars and its -120 at pinny which is 10 cents better, you bet twice the amount. I also have seen once or twice when a total was 7 at -110 at caesars and it was -123 or -125 at pinny which would make it 13 or 15 cents better.


Would you say this strategy is good for someone just doing no capping and just beating the pinnacle current line at a vegas book?

No, that won't work. You'll just lose less. You have to beat the no-vig line. Which is to say, what pinny thinks the fair line is without the juice, if pinny has -110/-110, the no vig-line is +100, so you can blind bet anything better than +100. -105 is still a loser.

Your last example would probably be worth a bet, but you have to know what the out side on pinny is.

Hi. Bit confused at the no vig line. Is that just the average of the 2 lines at pinny? You used -110 for both sides and then come with +100.


Meaning if I see say under 7 at -123 and then over 7 at +111 at PINNACLE, then the no vig line is -117?


What do you mean you have to know the outside on pinny. You mean the line for the other side as in the over 7?


Okay i just used the no vig calculator and for the under 7 at -123 and over at 7 at +111 at pinnacle, the no vig line comes to +116.4 and -116.4. So this means if i find an over at 7 at +117 or better, its a bet. And if i find an under at 7 at -116 juice or better, its an autobet?


Because if this is the case, then I guess i didn't see that how many good lines at the vegas sportsbook then. There weren't that many lines that probably beat the pinny current line if you talk about the no vig line, but caesars books did have a few totals where it was 5 cents better than the current pinny line.