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Old 06-17-2017, 02:30 PM   #1
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centurion
 
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baseball correlated parlays

Any idea on how profitable parlaying overs with -1.5 run lines is? (at slightly worse than market prices).

Same question with first 5 inning lines. I assume is first 5 inning parlays are even better - for example, +1.5 -150 parlayed with u5.5 -120.

I am wondering because I found a site that allows these bets but has a ton of juice so they are quite worse than market numbers. Could I still blindly bet these or do I need to cherry pick and find lines that are at least close to market?

If someone gives me a detailed and thoughtful answer I will tell them the site.
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Old 06-17-2017, 09:37 PM   #2
akkopower1
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Re: baseball correlated parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
Any idea on how profitable parlaying overs with -1.5 run lines is? (at slightly worse than market prices).

Same question with first 5 inning lines. I assume is first 5 inning parlays are even better - for example, +1.5 -150 parlayed with u5.5 -120.

I am wondering because I found a site that allows these bets but has a ton of juice so they are quite worse than market numbers. Could I still blindly bet these or do I need to cherry pick and find lines that are at least close to market?

If someone gives me a detailed and thoughtful answer I will tell them the site.
I thought about doing something similiar in rugby. I looked at data for over 3000 games. The correlation only existed when they was a major difference in the two teams.
i.e. when the line was -13.5 or bigger, then high win margins is correlated with high total scores.
Some bookies in my country allow the parlay, but after their juice, no profit for the punter.
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Old 06-17-2017, 10:51 PM   #3
JC82
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Re: baseball correlated parlays

Where are you finding +1.5 lines for first 5 innings? I dont recall ever seeing that
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Old 06-18-2017, 09:48 AM   #4
Mihkel05
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Re: baseball correlated parlays

I am very amused by this thread. Keep up the good work.
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Old 06-18-2017, 11:12 AM   #5
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Re: baseball correlated parlays

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Originally Posted by JC82 View Post
Where are you finding +1.5 lines for first 5 innings? I dont recall ever seeing that
Its pretty standard.

I dont think they are as great as I thought, not good enough to bet into really bad lines at least.
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Old 06-18-2017, 02:36 PM   #6
Mihkel05
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Re: baseball correlated parlays

"pretty standard"

As in basically offered no where. Great one!
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Old 06-18-2017, 07:15 PM   #7
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Re: baseball correlated parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by JC82 View Post
Where are you finding +1.5 lines for first 5 innings? I dont recall ever seeing that
Yea sorry theyare actually +.5/-.5. I thought they were 1.5 for some reason.
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Old 06-24-2017, 10:37 PM   #8
MrAdvantage
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Re: baseball correlated parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
Its pretty standard.

I dont think they are as great as I thought, not good enough to bet into really bad lines at least.
It is anything but fairly standard . Put the bottle down.
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Old 06-25-2017, 12:24 PM   #9
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Re: baseball correlated parlays

Oh I corrected myself a week ago, theyre +-.5. Its right above your post
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Old 07-03-2017, 02:26 PM   #10
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Re: baseball correlated parlays

If anyone would be so kind as to answer these questions, Ill happily transfer you 100 dollars on paypal or venmo, as well as tell you the name of the site.

I've been betting on baseball correlated parlays the last 3 weeks and have lost a good amount. I am wondering if these are as good as I think they are, and if full game is actually better than 1h. Instincticaly, first 5 innings seems like it would be better. But after some thought I might be wrong. For instance, today the mets are playing wash.

The full game line is Wash -1.5 +109, mets +1.5 -120, 9 u-115, over +104.

I can parlay Mets +1.5 -125 with under 9 even. My first question is how far off from market/pinny can I be and these still be +ev?

In the same game, I could also parlay 1h mets +.5 and under 4.5

This seems more correlated to me, but in the full game the "spread to total" ratio is 6. (9 divided by 1.5). In the first five innings line, the ratio is 9.

Soooo, my questions are, which parlay is better of the two I posted, the first 5 innings or full game? And how great are these things? Do I need to find at least close to market numbers, or can I blindly bet pretty much any combo? And if anyone could walk me through finding the EV of the first parlay based on the pinny line I posted, Id pay extra.

I know I'm asking a lot and Ill be pleasantly surpised of anyone comes through, and I'm not asking for any favors. I will gladly pay for someones expertise on this matter. PM me
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Old 07-03-2017, 05:50 PM   #11
Mihkel05
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Re: baseball correlated parlays

Do you have magic internet coins?
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Old 07-04-2017, 12:00 PM   #12
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Re: baseball correlated parlays

I could do 100 usd worth of bitcoin from a 3rd party
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Old 07-04-2017, 01:29 PM   #13
andr3w321
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Re: baseball correlated parlays

Here's my prices

$100 I'll give you a csv of the ML, total and final score of the games (does not include the runline of +1.5/-1.5 or 1H line etc)
+$200 I'll give you the 1H line and the runline
+$200 I'll backtest correlation on option 1
+$300 I'll backtest the 1H line and runline

PM me or tell me to post publicly if you want if you're interested. Paypal or btc is fine.
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Old 07-04-2017, 07:15 PM   #14
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Re: baseball correlated parlays

cool, Ill PM you
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