+1

got a unit at a collection of -2.5, -3.5, and -4.5 so looking at -18.5 feels good

I like the Dogs tonight but I think the market is pretty close - I got a decent bet on the Dogs to win the 1H at about evens - Roo's are a great 2H team

Giants v Hawks I think the market is close too - reminds me of that Giants v Cats game back in round 2 - lots of Cat love at a ML of like 1.45 ended in tears - maybe that is what you are missing although I agree that taking something close to evens about the Hawks winning any match could never be a really bad plan

YTD 2-2 -0.67u

I've got Doggies SU 1u @ $2.18 (Betfair) tonight.

It's early in the season to be reading too much into Pythag but North are already running 1.5 wins above expectation and Dogs are abot 0.5 games behind expectation.

I feel like there's almost always insane steam on Richmond, why is that? IIRC they got bet in heaps against Melbourne last round

well this time it might be more about Robbie Gray doing a hamstring than any Tiger love - that was a surprise

I thought that Demons game was probably their best for the season which is really a commentary on how crap they have been - I liked the bet against the Power because there is something internally wrong with the Power rather than having much faith in the Tigers - I think the Tigers are sleepers and will likely show some form eventually but right now I wouldn't back them to win a game unless I hated something about the other team

They didn't; they did at first but the late money was on Melbourne, then a tiny bit came back on Richmond in the end but I believe it closed about 6.5 after moving out to between 8.5 to 11.5 for most of the week

I'm not a Demons believer at all so far on what i've seen

Also, because Eels steam is coming in strong again and I think the most likely result is Dogs in a close one with Foran out (I originally liked Eels by 4 or so pre-Foran being out) I decided to cut my losses and middle it so now i'm losing 0.2u with any result other than Bulldogs by 1-3, although I pick up a couple units if thats hits. Dogs are good at winning by 2 so let's hope that happens.

I like WB in the AFL today but not enough to fire a large bet. I think North are very unimpressive for an unbeaten team and generally speaking I think WB, Hawthorn, WCE and Sydney are all better teams than them and you could argue for Adelaide as well in theory. We'll see I guess got a small play on but nothing significant yet.

Hawthorn -115 now, all the money has been on GWS, not sure whether to ignore it and bet Hawks or just leave that match alone, so far i've left it alone.

Wingard as well, plus Richmond are playing a team that isn't a disaster to not have Alex Rance against (dog act btw). If this was Port Adelaide two years ago with a fit and firing Schulz might have been a different story.

Not a big splurger re sportsbetting, but I might have a little bit of Sydney at 33.5 and would have loved to smash WCE at the starting price but its getting a tad steep now.

I decided to make a small Hawthorn play at -133, ended up taking ML so I won't be sad if they lose by 2 or whatever. Not as big as my STK/WCE/Richmond ones, but couldn't resist even though it feels like a trap.

Switched over to the NRL game as soon as it looked like St Kilda are comfortably home, even in the 1Q when they were behind it felt like they were playing better. I remain un-sold at all on Melbourne and still think they're pretty terrible. Was surprised NM got up against the Bulldogs though even as favs, maybe the Roos are for real this year. Too soon to tell I guess.

Got a nice sweat on Freo +49.5/50.5 at the moment, could go either way, it would help if Freo weren't 3.14 with their 17 scores to 15 lol, still think i'm a slight fav to hold there

Good luck all today. Decided to middle/switch to Sydney -33.5 and bought a bit back on the other side at 45.5 on Coll/WCE. Main play's still the Eagles -40.5 though. Hoping the Titans can revive their season against the Storm today, both because I have a bet on them as dogs and as a fan.

YTD 12/6 +6.75

lost on some GT lines and other spreads to finish about 1.5u down for the round - bummer

I didn't get to watch a game this weekend so going to be busy during the week - the Power beat the Tigers ? - Hawks lose by 12 goals ? - Blues win 2 in a row ? - WTF

I seem to run good on the first thing that jumps out in the next rounds lines - before I catch up and crunch some numbers that would be Pies -21.5 this week - I will check but I am pretty sure the Blues are still crap

Hawks -28.5
Pies -8.5
Cats -10.5

confirm Blues are still basically rubbish

bunch of $$ for the Tigers in tonight's Hawks v Tigers clash in the last 12 hours or so - line might improve - Cats line might improve too

I got nearly a unit on the Lions at +21.5/+22.5 - probably wont load up the balance at the current +14.5 though - likely to load up some Crows and maybe another unit on the Pies

Is it just me, or does this happen pretty much every week with the Tigers, regardless of who they're playing or how bad they are?!?

its a good question - I have noticed late $$ for them 3 of the last 4 weeks when they have been mostly awful all season - Cotchin is a bad out so I am at a loss for why $$ has come for them late this week

I suspect the player based black box brigade still model the Tigers favourably which might explain it - FWIW I think the Tigers are sleepers - they have a decent list

Has so far. Richmond steamed in a bunch but it seems to have started moving back slightly. I'm currently on Tigers at 35.5 and 37.5 just need to decide if i'm switching sides to Hawthorn or a middle now. No idea how Hawthorn react after their awful performance last week. I also wound up on Carlton 11.5, Brisbane Lions 22.5, GWS -19.5, WB ML -125, Suns -1.5 and ML at an average of -116, Swans at a range of handicaps from -63.5 to -70.5 and WCE +15.5 so far although i'm sure i'll have a few more bets on before the round starts

edit: decided to take a 4pt middle on Hawthorn, shoulda done it sooner and got 6 pts oh well

long time since they lose 2 in a row - smacked up the Eagles in round 2 coming off a loss

strange game against the Giants last week - Hawks were bad - after the Giants got out to a big lead the game seemed to be played in slow motion like the Hawks were resigned to getting beat - with an ordinary team I would blame injuries and the decent amount of inexperienced players in the team - with the Hawks it is more likely to be patchy form as they settle into the season - common for a grand finalist to be behind in their preparation - they have great form this season having played in maybe 3-4 of the best 10 games so far - they were 3/3 after 6 rounds last year and 4/4 - then they smashed everybody pretty much for the rest of the season

should replace "happy" with "money"

Pies -9.5
Crows ML 2.23

as predicted

going to get to watch a heap of games today so loaded up some speculators as well - took some Demons ML 2.05 - had a decent bet on the Giants to go under 98.5 tonight against Freo - and also hit some under 182.5 for the Cats v Eagles game

Freo friendless in the market against the Giants tonight - different challenge for a young team to play the Hawks at home then a 0/6 Freo in the west - I think the hype for the Giants this week is plainly over stated and the worm will turn sometime for Freo - Dockers +25.5 at home would be a rare line - Lyon is reverting to a defensive game set up in the last couple of games so taking the Giants total under looks a better bet to me