During half time, o/u was 40.5 for third quarter points in that Dees/North game. 40.5. I think North alone scored more than that in the third :P

Suns -24.5
Demons ML 2.50

I got more than 1u on the Suns at a collection of -22.5 and -23.5 - I am going to be surprised if the closing line is less than say -26.5 and I would happily bet it at -28.5

Demons are not in my book of honest teams and no Bernie hurts but they are better than a 40% shot - Pies form line = butchered by the Swans/win worst game of the year in last 5 seconds against pathetic Tigers/raped by the Saints - will the Eddie and Bucks bromance survive the season is my tip for upcoming AFL gossip columns

I tend to agree on the Suns line although i'm not sold on the Demons. Going to take a look later on today and see if I like any openers

Decided to jump on the Suns -23.5 line as well. I agree it's the best of the openers and wouldn't be surprised it it closes at 29.5/30.5 or so

Giants -4.5
Bombers v Cats u 181.5

GT lines have lots of weather issues this round - 2-3 lines look good on the numbers but I have ruled them out as my observations about new team style runs against the history - I got some 184.5 on the Bombers v Cats game but books didn't like any decent bet on that line - finished getting 1u on at the posted line @ 1.91 - Bombers are going to implode sometime but they get 2 days more rest than the Cats so probably not this game and they want to play slow so far this season - it would be historically marginal on a dry day and it looks like being a dreary Melbourne day probably with a light shower sometime during the game

Giants bet is a bit like the Demons - jury not quite settled on the Giants although last 2 weeks is arguably enough to say they are going places - Power might be a sleeper but they have almost no form this year - in short I think -4.5 reflects the history/expectation not the reality - if Leon Cameron is reading this - dude give someone the singular mission to smash up Robbie Gray all game and tell Stevie J to trash talk Dixon early

I am almost certainly done for the round now

Moved against us a bit can get 19.5 on the Gold Coast line now but i'm going to hold off and make sure there's no injury news i'm missing or anything. If not I might add a bit more.

Suns -17.5
Demons +14.5

in's and out's nearly all as expected in all the games I am on - Rich in is definitely good for the Lions although he might need the run - he was a certainty as he only withdrew last minute against the Cats - Thompson and McKenzie were certain to miss for the Suns and not in my view a big deal against a poor Lions forward line - it will be won in the middle and the Suns have the son of god warmed up after skipping the pre-season and plenty more quality to play on the ball

market hates almost everything I like this round - obviously I have no clue but added another unit on the Suns -17.5 at 1.99 and also Demons +14.5 at 2.04 to go with my earlier, now crappy ML bet

I would up getting Collingwood -10.5 early (not sold on the Demons at all) . Bought off my Suns -23.5 bet when it was moving against to lose 0.06u taking +23.5 and then changed my mind at the -19.5 line that its took good now and took it small again.

Also ended up getting some North Melb at -22.5 and -23.5, Hawthorn at -39.5 and -44.5, WCE -29.5 and Western Bulldogs -41.5 which I really like.

Not sure if Super Union counts for this thread, took a few spots there but the Sunwolves have been amazing to me this season they can't defend but they can attack and despite losing they've covered the spread almost every week. Got them at a bunch of lines between 16 and 17.5 again this week, I haven't added any ML yet at like +600 but I might I don't think it'll be long until they beat one of the weaker teams and while the Cheetahs aren't bottom 3 bad, they're pretty bad

Haven't decided for tonight's NRL the 10.5 line seems about right

must be a tough round - FWIW I don't like any of these favourites - only bet 1 of these games though and will skip the others - snapped up some Tigers ML 5.05 for about a third of a unit which is likely the only time I am going to beat a closing line this round - I can't recall a time when I have been screwed this hard by the market - sigh - go the Suns !

**** I never knew this thread existed! Agree whole heartedly about no rugby in here haha. The worst sport on the planet. Look forward to posting in here and having good yarns.

I think Stefan Martin on crownbet is massive overs on the fantasy line. 1.88 for over 103.5 is probably because he's gone poorly the first 3 games. He'll get 40 hit outs minimum against Tom Nicholls and should get back towards that mid 110 average soon enough. Tom Lynch in that same game is 93.5 points at 1.88. Overs on this line seems really good with Brisbane leaking points to key forwards all year and Lynch looking like a genuine gun this year. Hasn't gone under 93.5 yet, but I can't really use that argument as Stefan Martin hasn't gone over 103.5 this year yet either haha. But these two bets are very good value imo.

Jumped on Broncos -16.5 -123 at an offshore book and added more Suns -15.5 at -115, line just too good on suns at 15.5 imo I kinda expect them to win by 30 or so and i'd have been tilted if it landed between the 15.5 and the worse line I got earlier in the week. Got the WB -41.5 sweat later today and took Cronulla in the NRL at -105 when they started steaming as well. St Kilda doing well vs Hawthorn, glad I bought a bit back to middle some of my Hawthorn bet there as no way Hawthorn covers from here. Saints could be value in upcoming weeks they seem to be improving week after week. Could even win although as a big Titans fan that's the game i'm watching even though no bet on either side

Steven May that filthy rodent. Big stefan was cruising too. He should get 4 weeks minimum for that.

YTD 9/4 +6.01u

solid win for the round but gutted about the Suns result - market copped a bucket of $$ for the Lions and I still can't fathom why - hate that - didn't get the best of it for the Demons either - probably dumb not to assume that $$ will always come for the Pies given their following - felt good to get that one right but also annoying

suspect I am going to hit up the Swans this week - best game of the season v the Crows and good experienced teams bounce back after a loss - coupled with a suspicion that Eagles fans getting excited when really the Tigers were just seriously awful again this week

+1

I would have some sympathy for that hit usually because faced with Stefan at full tilt in front of me my instinct would be to drop the shoulder as its likely to hurt the least - May might of gotten less without so much form but I reckon 4 would be a sweet deal for him given what I saw - you were a virtual lock before that - sick beat

Yeah I was pretty filthy with it. Tom Lynch beat his line comfortably though as some consolation!

I'm a massive eagles supporter but an even bigger AFL in general supporter i.e I have no bias towards the eagles (poker has taught me good traits!). If anything, I'm the opposite to biased, I am pretty pessimistic about us. And I think we are very good this year. I think our list is the best or 2nd best in the comp obviously with Hawthorn (I actually think ours is better ) and people aren't giving us enough credit yet.

1) The media haven't spoken about us once outside of our dismal display against Hawthorn which I think was the worst game we've played since 2014. We are just pathetic at the 'G, we really are. And Hawthorn were just so good that day.

2) Our inaccuracy has probably covered up our dominance of our three wins this year. Look at the inside 50 counts for our 3 wins:
WCE v Bris: 64 - 45
WCE v Freo: 63 - 37
WCE v Rich: 60 - 27
Barring the massive slip up against the Hawks, we've been seriously impressive this year imo. With the 4th (something like that) youngest list in the comp, and no one really getting too old except Sam Butler (and good ****ing riddance, shoulda been delisted 6 years ago), I think we will have a very good year this year.

Now, I don't even know why I wrote that. Because I think the Swans will win this weekend too haha. But I've been very bullish on the Swans for the past 3-4 years. Their midfield depth is just ridiculous. Coupled with how poorly we travel I just think they'll win. But with Priddis coming back in and maybe Wellingham, I wouldn't be one bit surprised if we rolled em. I guess I just felt like writing, and I'll probably do a lot more of it in here over time haha.

Loving your work mate, keep it up!

I am 1/0 on Crows games this year - tempted to stop backing them and finish in front for the season - that said I really want to hit up that +17.5 this round but as usual I am going to think about it some more - crazy to like the other team v the Hawks at the G right ?

Eagles look awesome but haven't really got form against a serious team so far this year - Freo were in the game late in the derby but they obviously have issues generally and playing your midfielders in the ruck for a half was a bit of a gift - last 2 weeks the Swans played serious teams and continued to look awesome so they win the "best form" debate in this match up - at home and coming off a loss they win a lot more than the opening ML 1.75 (57%) the books reckon

Swans -5.5
Pies -17.5

Likely to get a bunch of action this week but these 2 are the only ones I have fired to date - took the ML 1.75 for the Swans and loaded up the balance of a bit more than a unit at -5.5 - I figure (hope) the Pies line gets worse - ANZAC day game so reasonable to assume they both play well and if that happens the Pies will cover the spread

Yeah I see Sydney winning this more than 57% too. I'm hesitant with the pies as they burnt me so hard twice earlier in the year.

To be honest I'd prefer hawthorn at that line. But that's a pure gut feel. I know Adelaide look really strong but I feel like they need one or two more really solid wins to prove to me that they're a genuine top 4 side. But I do seem to agree with your opinion frequently so I'll watch with interest

Dockers -31.5

dunno what the market is going to do - it is currently drifting against me - I took a unit at this current Pinny line @ 1.99 - Dockers have some good form last 2 games despite being 0/4 for the season and they are getting better from here - Blues are basically still crap albeit putting up some decent consistent efforts

I got a unit on the Power +9.5 @ 1.91 and 1.92 - got that right as now you struggle to get +3.5 - Swans line holding and smashed the market with the earlier Pies bet as now about -25.5

weather stopping me from firing 3 different total lines - probably hit 1 or 2 of them close to game time - and still watching a couple of spread lines

tonight's game killing me - Crows +21.5 even money - I am not going to do it - it really comes down to Hawks early season form - this year like last year you can never be sure which Hawks are showing up for the first 7-8 rounds - the GT line is tempting to - not sure I have ever seen a 199.5 line for a night game at the G - should be a quality game - go the Crows

I don't see a lot to like about tonight's game, taking Hawks 1-39 @ $2.23 for half a unit but it's not a bet I'm madly in love with

YTD 11/5 +6.84u

Dockers game was the worst of the season - it got comical in the 2H - Fyfe going down mid game did not help - Dockers needed 1 quarter of "solid" to cover the spread and could not manage a short patch of decent which was surprising given they were at home and had some form going in - I still like that bet

lost a unit on the Power too - again a home team playing crazy bad although it was more predictable and the Cats have been building - after the Powers loss to the Giants backing them the next week makes this one a mistake

went 2/1 on some GT lines and finished the round about a unit in front - and got more than a unit on the Bombers for least season wins over the last month at an average of about even money so watching the Blues win had some upside

it looks ugly for the Power from here - something is wrong in that club - the players mindset is messed up - Dockers without Fyfe for at least 7-8 so their season is officially over - Lyon will know that too so I expect some rebuilding type plans from here

Eagles are going to butcher the Pies next week and the early spread around -38.5 is not enough in my view

Eagles -42.5
Tigers -4.5

some chance Eagles line gets better - I snapped up some -37.5 and -38.5 early - I suspect the Tigers line gets worse

I like both, I caught the same Richmond -4.5 and was lucky enough to get -40.5 on WCE. Also got some Geelong -40.5, Brisbane +40.5, Western Bulldogs +2.5 and St Kilda +10.5. I quite like the Hawthorn line at -6.5 but it's moving against still so i'll wait and see.

In the NRL so far I have Roosters -14.5, Penrith -3.5, NQ -8, St George +5.5 and Titans +5.5. Also got some Roosters ML at -507 average. Lot of players coming back from injury and Newcastle are the worst team in the league and playing away. I think Roosters have been overrated this season but they should be a bit better this week with a few key players returning and after how horribly Newcastle have played lately (I have no idea why I took them +7.5 last week) I just don't see them winning more than 10-15% of the time this week and i'm expecting the Roosters to run up the score by a lot.

Biggest bets are Richmond and West Coast spread so far, caught an off market one on West Coast which was nice

Got on souths -8 for tonight nrl lines out to 8.5 now but I still like it. Wests attack is better than Newcastle but their d is awful if souths show up they win by double digits only issue is whether they will as they've been inconsistent lately. I'm close to just auto fading wests and Newcastle atm. Also considering broncos and cowboys to win it all futures they both seem a class above the next rung of eels sharks and storm and could get close to evens taking broncos and cowboys v field. I just don't see a way neither make the final short of catastrophic injuries.

Foran out last minute indefinitely for the Eels, jumped on the Bulldogs midway through the steam at about -161. Assuming Foran isn't out too long with whatever his health issue is I still think the Eels are a better squad but losing your halfback less than 24h before the game has to have a huge impact on whatever plans they had for the match. I was leaning towards the Eels originally at -115 or so when the lines opened but fortunately didn't make a play and when I saw Foran is out indefinitely due to health reasons decided to switch sides.

I think the Bulldogs are overrated and not a top 5 squad this season but the Eels could be in for a rough night tomorrow. Also took some Freo +49.5 and +50.5 today as well.

Pretty insane steam on Richmond, I feel lucky there as I was just beating the market price and didn't have a real reason for taking them.

Hawks -120 seems pretty ridiculous even away vs GWS, I get that they've had close games and GWS can be solid at home but I mean... it's Hawthorn. What am I missing there? I haven't bet anything on the match yet but if Hawthorn get to evens I probably won't be able to help myself and will fade the money on GWS to take the Hawks.