Annual Wong teaser noob thread

[PropPlayer]

Originally Posted by beetman

What does a 9 point favorite have to do with a 7 point favorite? Edit, oh, you mean paired with the Chargers since you needed 6.5 to get the Chargers to -2.5. In that case, you had 4 days to tease the Chargers -8 or -8.5, but for games where the line never budges off 9, if a road favorite of 7 is the only viable option I guess that's not terrible. Although depending on where the line was at I'd have much rather teased MIA +1 or NE +1 than a road favorite, since you can at least use all 6.5 points there.

The moneyline/spread didn't come together on Colts until later. It was higher at one point but Colts are -7.5 to -8.5 during a lot of it.

When making the bet: Backing out the Pinnacle juice they were Chargers were 80.64% to win straight up which higher total and large home favorite suggested better than my own push analysis which had Chargers -2.5 covering around 76.1%.

I'm sure other times in week there were better plays but where I was sitting at moment it was best i came up with but did look.

I didn't look at New England / Miami . I grabbed a 7.5 point -135 teaser on Pats +7.5 / Redskins +14.5 which was great at the time, because Pats just moved to -1.5 on bookmaker and others shaded them to -1 -120, while Redskins were at 6 and looked like they were going to get to 5.5.. 5 Dimes had Redskins +7.5 Pats PK (only site with Pats PK). I teased them; less than 2 min later they dropped the shade. Still like the bet despite the move, but didn't want extra exposure on that game or to play both sides.

[Thremp]

I think you folks should read the MMA thread to understand the fact that the Colts were a terrible bet at anywhere south of +200.

[Lego05]

Originally Posted by Thremp

I think you folks should read the MMA thread to understand the fact that the Colts were a terrible bet at anywhere south of +200.

Does MMA here stand for Mixed Martial Arts?

I don't know what thread you mean.

And I don't understand how they could have been a terrible team to include in teaser bets at -1. I'm not saying you're wrong .... I just don't understand why.

[Post-Oak]

Originally Posted by Lego05

Does MMA here stand for Mixed Martial Arts?

I don't know what thread you mean.

And I don't understand how they could have been a terrible team to include in teaser bets at -1. I'm not saying you're wrong .... I just don't understand why.

He's not being serious. He's attacking a strawman he constructed in another thread.

[Lego05]

Originally Posted by Post-Oak

He's not being serious. He's attacking a strawman he constructed in another thread.

Oh.

[stoffmakers]

yet another thread about to be hijacked, sigh

[Thremp]

More like I'm attacking post-hoc analysis and the idea that you can discern between sharp/square monies.

Was the monies on the Jags sharp/square? At the time it seemed like teasers hedges... but they won? OH NOES!!!! Should we change our analysis.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Originally Posted by beetman

It's not that tough. Road favorite teasers suck so they should generally be avoided, but he got a pseudo-arb so he has Colts -.5 -283 and Jags ML +300. The chance of a tie rare enough it's a +EV combination. Although it's better to just tease from -7 to -1 and risk the game landing on the 1.

spoon feeding more than me

[PropPlayer]

Originally Posted by Lego05

And I don't understand how they could have been a terrible team to include in teaser bets at -1. I'm not saying you're wrong .... I just don't understand why.

Tremp is like Yoda. A lot of wisdom but rarely have a clue what he is saying. Maybe he is saying three team teaser would have needed to pay +200 for the colts to have been a good tease there, which actually comes close to making sense, or maybe he's saying something I can't comprehend as I'm not advanced enough to understand Yoda wisdom, especially when mixed with big words, or sometimes short ones, that I don't know their meanings.

Anyways though: the reason Colts -1 was not a good bet imo. They were offered -7 +107 just before game time. Depending where and how you played it most likely you got a bet worth Colts -1 -244 @ best. This is pretty basic and these #s are extremely rough. What you need to see is taken the Colts from -7 to -1 is that worth the 151 cent difference in price?

Again very rough #'s might look something like this:

6.5 = 14 cents
6 = 10 cents
5.5 = 9 cents
5 = 4 cents
4.5 = 4 cents
4 = 7 cents
3.5 = 7 cents
3 = 31 cents
2.5 = 31 cents
2 = 5 cents
1 = 7 cents

Add those all together and see if moving from 7 to 1 is worth 151 cents or not.

This is only a starting clue. The initial numbers might come from historical data ran at various different levels of years. From there examine what bets are available where on alternate lines and back out juice. Basically when betting a teaser its good to find several factors and weight them all together. When none are working against you probably found the best option to bet the game. Everyone here seems to have a short cut, but these short cuts rely on putting too much emphasis on one factor or another.

A side note: Despite its worked in the past, I doubt that simply teasing every line that crosses 3 and 7 together is going to make money long term going forward, and if it does; this most likely would not be as much money that could have been made if instead each bet was researched to find which option (straight, point buy, alt line, moneyline, teaser) carries the most value. Finding value through teasers though most likely stays an option for a long time.

[shipitkthx]

Originally Posted by PropPlayer

Everyone here seems to have a short cut, but these short cuts rely on putting too much emphasis on one factor or another.

A side note: Despite its worked in the past, I doubt that simply teasing every line that crosses 3 and 7 together is going to make money long term going forward, and if it does; this most likely would not be as much money that could have been made if instead each bet was researched to find which option (straight, point buy, alt line, moneyline, teaser) carries the most value. Finding value through teasers though most likely stays an option for a long time.

Too smart for this thread imo.

[shipitkthx]

Originally Posted by Thremp

More like I'm attacking post-hoc analysis and the idea that you can discern between sharp/square monies.

Was the monies on the Jags sharp/square? At the time it seemed like teasers hedges... but they won? OH NOES!!!! Should we change our analysis.

If you are incapable of discerning between sharp/square steam at some level pre-game that is pretty hilarious.

[hedgie43]

Originally Posted by PropPlayer

Tremp is like Yoda. A lot of wisdom but rarely have a clue what he is saying. Maybe he is saying three team teaser would have needed to pay +200 for the colts to have been a good tease there, which actually comes close to making sense, or maybe he's saying something I can't comprehend as I'm not advanced enough to understand Yoda wisdom, especially when mixed with big words, or sometimes short ones, that I don't know their meanings.

Anyways though: the reason Colts -1 was not a good bet imo. They were offered -7 +107 just before game time. Depending where and how you played it most likely you got a bet worth Colts -1 -244 @ best. This is pretty basic and these #s are extremely rough. What you need to see is taken the Colts from -7 to -1 is that worth the 151 cent difference in price?

Again very rough #'s might look something like this:

6.5 = 14 cents
6 = 10 cents
5.5 = 9 cents
5 = 4 cents
4.5 = 4 cents
4 = 7 cents
3.5 = 7 cents
3 = 31 cents
2.5 = 31 cents
2 = 5 cents
1 = 7 cents

Add those all together and see if moving from 7 to 1 is worth 151 cents or not.

This is only a starting clue. The initial numbers might come from historical data ran at various different levels of years. From there examine what bets are available where on alternate lines and back out juice. Basically when betting a teaser its good to find several factors and weight them all together. When none are working against you probably found the best option to bet the game. Everyone here seems to have a short cut, but these short cuts rely on putting too much emphasis on one factor or another.

A side note: Despite its worked in the past, I doubt that simply teasing every line that crosses 3 and 7 together is going to make money long term going forward, and if it does; this most likely would not be as much money that could have been made if instead each bet was researched to find which option (straight, point buy, alt line, moneyline, teaser) carries the most value. Finding value through teasers though most likely stays an option for a long time.

Is this kinda like how all pleasers are sucker bets?

[kaboshedx]

Originally Posted by shipitkthx

Too smart for this thread imo.

Originally Posted by shipitkthx

If you are incapable of discerning between sharp/square steam at some level pre-game that is pretty hilarious.

Enlighten us

[calm]

Originally Posted by PropPlayer

Everyone here seems to have a short cut, but these short cuts rely on putting too much emphasis on one factor or another.

When your numbers are admittedly rough, any 'short cut' that doesn't equal hmm, what does the market say? is retarded.

Anyways though: the reason Colts -1 was not a good bet imo.

LOL @ U

A side note: Despite its worked in the past, I doubt that simply teasing every line that crosses 3 and 7 together is going to make money long term going forward

Why? lower payouts?

[PropPlayer]

Originally Posted by calm

When your numbers are admittedly rough, any 'short cut' that doesn't equal hmm, what does the market say? is retarded.

This wasn't a how to guide. I see: Join Date: Mar 2006 / Posts: 16,030 and many of his posts earlier he's asking very basic questions. I decided to take a crack at explaining the basic concept behind teasers in a way other than was responded to before. I was saying for this particular game these #s are extremely rough but here is the basic concept of what you're doing with a tease. The short cut was more of what I expanded on later in evaluating all ways game can be bet, where pricing is at and seeing if all is in line with the teaser.

Originally Posted by calm

LOL @ U

Okay imo wasn't exact I should say "based on one set of factors and here goes" and went on from there, or something to that effect. I have a limited vocabulary and struggle with words. So sure will continuously be something I don't explain well, such as last sentence of previous paragraph.

Originally Posted by calm

Why? lower payouts?

That's one reason. Optimal exposure strategies for correlated outcomes was what I was getting at with the second part of it.

Anyways: my response wasn't meant to be anything other than taking a crack at answering his questions. Perhaps i should of sent it to Lego via PM.