Originally Posted by Lego05
And I don't understand how they could have been a terrible team to include in teaser bets at -1. I'm not saying you're wrong .... I just don't understand why.
Tremp is like Yoda. A lot of wisdom but rarely have a clue what he is saying. Maybe he is saying three team teaser would have needed to pay +200 for the colts to have been a good tease there, which actually comes close to making sense, or maybe he's saying something I can't comprehend as I'm not advanced enough to understand Yoda wisdom, especially when mixed with big words, or sometimes short ones, that I don't know their meanings.
Anyways though: the reason Colts -1 was not a good bet imo. They were offered -7 +107 just before game time. Depending where and how you played it most likely you got a bet worth Colts -1 -244 @ best. This is pretty basic and these #s are extremely rough. What you need to see is taken the Colts from -7 to -1 is that worth the 151 cent difference in price?
Again very rough #'s might look something like this:
6.5 = 14 cents
6 = 10 cents
5.5 = 9 cents
5 = 4 cents
4.5 = 4 cents
4 = 7 cents
3.5 = 7 cents
3 = 31 cents
2.5 = 31 cents
2 = 5 cents
1 = 7 cents
Add those all together and see if moving from 7 to 1 is worth 151 cents or not.
This is only a starting clue. The initial numbers might come from historical data ran at various different levels of years. From there examine what bets are available where on alternate lines and back out juice. Basically when betting a teaser its good to find several factors and weight them all together. When none are working against you probably found the best option to bet the game. Everyone here seems to have a short cut, but these short cuts rely on putting too much emphasis on one factor or another.
A side note: Despite its worked in the past, I doubt that simply teasing every line that crosses 3 and 7 together is going to make money long term going forward, and if it does; this most likely would not be as much money that could have been made if instead each bet was researched to find which option (straight, point buy, alt line, moneyline, teaser) carries the most value. Finding value through teasers though most likely stays an option for a long time.