Adequate sample size? - Sports Betting

u need to shove it · 07-23-2012, 01:05 AM

Hi guys-

Total newb question here and I apologize if this has been covered before... was just wondering what sports betting experts consider to be an adequate sample size for a sport? MLB for example. And what is a good ROI after those # of picks, what would constitute attempting to "go tout" as they seem to like to say?

Thanks for your time.

ZachL · 07-23-2012, 01:15 AM

Average odds of wagers?

Also, read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval

u need to shove it · 07-23-2012, 01:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZachL

Average odds of wagers?

Also, read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval

Lets call the average odds of the MLB Wagers -135.

How many picks with an average of -135 would I need to make for it to really mean something.

ZachL · 07-23-2012, 01:52 AM

http://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experim...sis/zCalc.html

microstakesrave · 07-26-2012, 03:23 AM

Winning after 75 straight wagers is impossible. I don't see why that couldn't be a good sample size.

If anybody says 'No'.

I'll reply with "Wanna bet on it?"

Donkson · 07-26-2012, 03:48 AM

what?

wiper · 07-26-2012, 03:55 AM

how many did brianl win on? 150?

150.

but after that, you might wanna stop.

B00T · 07-26-2012, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by microstakesrave

Winning after 75 straight wagers is impossible. I don't see why that couldn't be a good sample size.

If anybody says 'No'.

I'll reply with "Wanna bet on it?"

I read this post 4 times and still do not have the slightest clue as to what any of it means.

Posts like this are the real hidden gems on this forum.

GuiGui_88 · 07-26-2012, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by u need to shove it

Hi guys-

Total newb question here and I apologize if this has been covered before... was just wondering what sports betting experts consider to be an adequate sample size for a sport? MLB for example. And what is a good ROI after those # of picks, what would constitute attempting to "go tout" as they seem to like to say?

Thanks for your time.

When dealing with the major markets like MLB you should be looking at your lines wagered vs the closing lines more so then your W/L record or units won record.

As for ROI % I would not be expecting anything over 5% in NFL/NBA/MLB long term unless you are betting off-market numbers, soft props or overnight lines.

u need to shove it · 07-26-2012, 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GuiGui_88

When dealing with the major markets like MLB you should be looking at your lines wagered vs the closing lines more so then your W/L record or units won record.

As for ROI % I would not be expecting anything over 5% in NFL/NBA/MLB long term unless you are betting off-market numbers, soft props or overnight lines.

According to these numbers, my ROI for MLB is 14.1% for the past 2.5 years, which is a sample of 713 mlb money lines, run lines, and totals.

tukkk · 07-26-2012, 07:25 PM

1) made a mistake with the calculations
2) fitted
3) both

B00T · 07-26-2012, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by u need to shove it

According to these numbers, my ROI for MLB is 14.1% for the past 2.5 years, which is a sample of 713 mlb money lines, run lines, and totals.

Let me guess...

You have a family.

tukkk · 07-26-2012, 10:20 PM

at least 3 kids

and 2 cars, 5l engines

GoDeViLs · 07-26-2012, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by u need to shove it

According to these numbers, my ROI for MLB is 14.1% for the past 2.5 years, which is a sample of 713 mlb money lines, run lines, and totals.

How much do your pick packages start at? Any secondary sport you can jump to when you start to make a nosedive?

u need to shove it · 07-27-2012, 03:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by B00T

Let me guess...

You have a family.

Don't we all? I was given birth by a human female. My dad inseminated her. I came into the world, into a family.

So to answer your question... Yes?

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoDeViLs

How much do your pick packages start at? Any secondary sport you can jump to when you start to make a nosedive?

I actually do have someone who pays me for picks. He pays me 200$ a month and is quite happy. I have recently come to the realization that with some time and effort it may be prudent to look for additional clients... after all if I am going to be capping anyway, the more the merrier I suppose.