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Old 09-08-2010, 05:27 PM   #121
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

advanced NFL stats' poking fun at football outsiders season win predictions

there is something seriously wrong with the way FO does projections
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Old 09-08-2010, 07:19 PM   #122
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

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Originally Posted by THAKID View Post
You gotta estimate true odds

not look at odds including crazy juice
I gotta think raiders make playoffs more than Jags
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:45 PM   #123
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
advanced NFL stats' poking fun at football outsiders season win predictions

there is something seriously wrong with the way FO does projections
Its not actually that great of a breakdown because it was a single year and so therefore does not look at whether it was a one year abberation. Here's FOs results versus vegas http://vegaswatch.net/2010/01/2009-n...ons-recap.html
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:54 PM   #124
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Vegas Watch is a massive idiot.
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Old 09-09-2010, 08:52 AM   #125
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

i remember a couple of years ago some guy who would post his nfl picks and his reasoning for every argument was football outsiders. the market is stupid since FO says the spread should be -10 when its +3

wonder what happened to him
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Old 09-09-2010, 09:22 AM   #126
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Then, if you sell dope ***** stack it when you get it
Can't trick it, or spend it until it's gone
That’s slippery business homes
Go get you a business loan

Last edited by Thremp; 09-09-2010 at 09:25 AM. Reason: Extra lines for clarity
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Old 09-09-2010, 09:28 AM   #127
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

oh i found the guy it was kyro and he was in love with dvoa which is pretty results oriented and he had that hip tagline telling people to kill themselves with a noose which was his avatar

posts like this

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...58&postcount=6

dvoa says -5.5, mov -8

but since it's -3.5 -120 i'm only going to put 1u instead of 2 because of the extra juice

even though -5.5 +100 is essentially the same as -3.5 -120 and -8 is huge
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Old 09-09-2010, 11:47 AM   #128
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

The noose thing was because kyro was a big werewolf (go to POG to get an explanation but I suspect they have alerts that will let them know I have mentioned it) player I think.
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Old 09-12-2010, 01:02 PM   #129
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Just got a guy to take this with 8 teams for a dime.

His teams:

Lions
Browns
Jags
Bills
Bucs
Skins
Panthers
Broncos
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Old 09-12-2010, 02:33 PM   #130
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Week 17 is the week that Teams Sneak in or not, knowing that .. My picks to Miss Playoffs.
Bubble teams

Minnesota at Detroit
St. Louis at Seattle
Arizona at San Francisco
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Oakland at Kansas City
Buffalo at NY Jets

I can't count out Washington.
NY Giants at Washington
Dallas at Philadelphia
Chicago at Green Bay
Carolina at Atlanta

Miami at New England
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Jacksonville at Houston
Cincinnati at Baltimore
San Diego at Denver

PS. Carolina is my 7th team, and Arizona my 6th
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Old 09-12-2010, 03:59 PM   #131
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

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Originally Posted by metsman82 View Post
You act like if a guy has a bad year he can't possibly straighten it up in the offseason and figure it out.

The guy was an 85-90 passer rating QB over the previous 5-6 seasons. He has one off year and he's done for life? He also was battling a busted finger on his throwing hand the 2nd half of they year and some other ailments earlier in the year.

Smart money is overwhelmingly on him to turn it around and get back to his form. To claim that he's not a massive upgrade over Quinn or Anderson is just foolish.
Delhomme throws 2 horrible ints. enjoying the Jake Delhomme era?
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Old 09-12-2010, 06:37 PM   #132
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

49ers looking like piss.. NFC West looking wide open. I got a guy on a 7-teamer with both Seattle and St. Louis.
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Old 09-12-2010, 06:53 PM   #133
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Did you figure that analysis out by watching 3Q of an inter-division away game or by deep throating FO?
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Old 09-12-2010, 07:30 PM   #134
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

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Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
Did you figure that analysis out by watching 3Q of an inter-division away game or by deep throating FO?

Are you addicted to just running your mouth and talking bull**** and pretending that you have a clue to any of this?

Or are you just a douchebag?
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Old 09-12-2010, 07:48 PM   #135
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Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

I'm genuinely curious. It seems you don't value the 20c morning line move made with millions of dollars. So... what exactly gives you this special insight?
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