Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, (lol florida teams), Minnesota, Cleveland, Oakland

minn
jax
stl
cle
mia
tb

r all of u who r posting picks taking these 6 teams against other ppl or ur taking action against them or just posting which 6 teams u think?

It's very possible the Skins & Fish could be better than some of those teams and still be better picks. I saw my picks from 2yrs ago itt and my one miss was the 7-9 Seahawks (lol nfc west). The Rams could easily be that team this year if Bradford bounces back; they were the favorite to win the division this time last year. Bill Barnwell has written some good stuff on why a 49ers decline is inevitable and Tampa might not be bad. I wouldn't feel too comfortable picking any team from either West. But then you either have to pick 1 team from each remaining division or 2 from one division, which is a bit risky. I think this is even tougher than usual this year.

I know Jax is kind of a mess with their o-line and qb. But for some reason I feel like they could hang around and make it interesting.

I probably feel better about Jax missing than anyone in the afc.
Miami has an unusual # of good young players for a 'bad' team & Moore (if he starts) isn't terrible..
Cleveland has a pretty good D & Balt/Pitt might take a step back..
Indy - there's an outside shot Luck is really good right away...
Everyone in the West is pretty close.

Jacksonville
Minnesota
St. Louis
Cleveland
Indianapolis
Tampa Bay
Cincinnati

Cincinnati is a pretty bold pick but I might be inclined to agree. If you had to go 7 or 8 deep on this then definitely worth a look.

Jax defense is really solid. And I think could get better this year. It might be a bunch of 9-6 type thrillers or something but I can see them pulling out enough wins. Pretty much ANY offense at all and they could have a shot. Unfortunately for them, even that low standard of "any" might be more than they can attain.

- Jacksonville
- Cleveland
- St. Louis
- Miami
- Minnesota
- Carolina

The Bengals were considered a bottom 3 team at this time last season and they made it. I think Cleveland has the lowest chance to make it this year because of the division and schedule.

have to pick indy. and i say this as a colts fan. oiur back seven is beyond terrible

5Dimes has odds to make the playoffs up.

Using the juice free number:
IND .9166 (To Miss)
CLE .9129
MIN .8974
JAX .8947
STL .8824
TB .8451
WAS .8451
MIA .791
SEA .7753
CAR .7689

Assuming bets are independant, probability of top six missing: .501003
Top 7: .423
Top 8: .335
Top 9: .259
Top 10: .199

they don't have odds up on Arizona tho for some reasons and they'd def be somewhere on that list

they arent independent tho

dependance would make the odds better/worse/impossible to tell for whoever's booking the bet?

I don't know how dependence could make the bet better for anyone who is trying to select the 6 teams. It obviously makes it better for anyone accepting the bet.

Any team that doesn't make the playoffs is taking one of the non-playoff spots.

And how they got to that position of not making the playoffs is because they lost too many games...and some of those games would be to other teams that you also have selected to not make the playoffs.

This dependence aspect is why it starts to become dangerous to pick two teams from the same division. Or why it would be dangerous to pick all 6 teams from the same conference. They all have to play each other...and unfortunately for you, somebody has to win.

I don't have a way to quantify it, but I agree with Bob.

However I don't know how much it kicks in with 6 teams (assuming unique divisions). Once you get to 8-10, it probably skews the numbers a ton.

Bump.

Hey everyone, we pretty much are using this thread to discuss this prop for 2012. I locked the other thread.

With probability being skewed with multiple picks if I offer 2-1 on picking 8 teams to miss playoffs would it be a +ev bet for me? What can I offer on 7 +125/+140 and still be +ev? The guys making the picks will not be picking with there heads but with their hearts plus I will be able to escrow the cash. So I want it to be the inviting with out giving away to much. Tks for your time.

Here are my buddies:
Cleveland
Tennesse
Jax
Miami
Wash
Minn
Arizona
St. Louis
Indy
Tampa

We agreed on 2:1 odds. 10 Teams.

I made this bet with a friend for 7 teams and he selected

- Cleveland
- Minnesota
- Jacksonville
- St. Louis
- Tampa Bay
- Miami
- Oakland

2 guys picks against me so far, 7 teams even odds:

1) NYJ, MIA, CLE, JAX, IND, MIN, OAK
2) MIA, CLE, JAX, IND, MIN, WAS, STL

more to come

My 6 are:

CLE
JAX
IND
WAS
TB
ARZ

My 7th would be Oakland. Ship it.

LOL. 5:1 is close to true odds on six teams. True odds for ten teams is > 20:1 imo.

You can offer 2:1 on 7 teams and it is still +EV. I do it.