I never actually posted my 6 but this is what I think. There's only 3 100% golden locks here that I'm willing to use. Buffalo, Detroit, and St. Louis. St. Louis isn't there yet and Buffalo and Detroit are in nasty divisions.

Outside of that I think its wide open for anyone of the other "obvious" picks to crash the party. Including the Browns, Bears, Chiefs, Cardinals, Seahawks, etc.. One of them is going to improve enough and catch a hot hand and win 9 or 10 games.

Thinking outside the realm of those "obvious" picks. I think the Jets, Steelers, and Broncos will have uphill battles to reach the playoffs.

Expectations too great for the Jets, they couldn't possibly live up to the hype. This is a team that luckboxed into the playoffs last year and Sanchez looks like crap. Calvin Pace is gonna miss a pile of games, he was a bigtime defensive playmaker for them. Revis has his head in the clouds. New England and Miami will be very good IMO.

Steelers could find themselves 1-3 before Ben even steps onto the field. 3 of those first 4 won't be easy at all. After that they have some tough non-division games vs Miami, New England, and New Orleans.

Broncos defense will be nowhere near as good as it was last year without Dumervil. That was a crippling loss. Orton will have to do more than just manage the game this year and he's not capable of that. Both KC and Oakland got better from last year in that division.

If you're trying to win this bet, I say show some stones and throw those 3 into your mix.

I will book anybody who wants to take this bet at $20 per person.

anyone want to give me 4-1 if i include jets

shhh. The jets arent going to suffer any negative variance in defensive or running game performance this year. They are great. No, really.

I'd be shocked if the Jets make the playoffs. They are the same mediocre team they were last year except with much higher expectations.

Catching up with this article on the Freakonomics blog via my RSS reader last night made me immediately think of this bet.

At first glance looks like an outside possibility that Buffalo might be the team that kills everyone's six this year, at least that's one of several interesting observations that jumped out at me re: this analysis.

-P

That was a great article. Thanks.

I'm running the same bet, just w/ 8 teams. my side ftw!

nice one... you should crush

Following up on that NYT Football Outsiders article on the Bills... Just gazing over my FO Almanac 2010.. In-terms of injuries, the Jets had the healthiest offense in the league last year. Denver had the healthiest defense.

Washington had the most banged up offense.. Detroit the most banged up defense.

Estimated true odds of all six teams when you pick the six

if all teams are 90% to not make the playoffs its a good bet

actually based on the current "to make playoff" odds, assuming they're efficient or close

buffalo, cleveland, jacksonville, detroit, tampa, st louis

looks like it might be a good bet this year

What book has to make playoff odds?

5d had them up for a while

betus has them up but the juice is ridiculous

Bodog has lines. Assuming all the %s are independent (which they're not), I calculate the win%s for this bet to be:
5 teams 46.24%
6 teams 37.49%
7 teams 29.6%