FWIW, there have been 20 seasons since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams. In 15 of those seasons, a team that had one of the six worst records the previous year made the playoffs (75%).

dude.

]

Wipers secret revealed!

I will definitely be throwing this out to my buddies though.

I get that it isn't +EV anyway, but if you were going to do it, looking at futures markets, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay are clear picks. It's the 6th team that's pretty elusive. Oakland and KC are the two weakest remaining teams with it being questionable which one's weaker, but with them both being in the same division as Denver (another weak squad), there's a decent chance they could sneak into the playoffs at 8-8. Jacksonville's a little better team and has better odds for winning the whole conference or going to the Super Bowl, but they still have a RSW total of 7 and are in an extremely tough division with Indy, Houston, and Tennessee such that they'll never make the playoffs unless they're at least good enough to make it in as a wild card. I'm pretty sure that if you could just take 5 teams, the bet would be +EV, but picking anyone out of KC, Oakland, and Jacksonville is gonna be pretty dangerous.

LOL!

hush boy.

iggy knows...odds and/or historical records are tough.

people that read and/or study and/or do their homework aren't the suckers on this bet....you can fill in the rest.

My guy picked these teams.

The two guys that I offered this to (7 teams at even money) picked the following teams:

Redskins, Giants, Bills, Chiefs, Browns, Bucs, and Rams

Rams, Raiders, Bills, Bucs, Browns, Chiefs, Jags

Note: Neither of them picked the Lions as we live in the Detroit area and both are Lions season ticket holders

Redskins or Giants make the playoffs for sure. Why you would pick two teams in a division known for parity makes no sense at all.

Raiders Rams, Bills, Bucs, Browns, and Chiefs have two games against each other or the worst teams in their conference, so if a team can go 6-8 or 7-7 for their non flex games and win their two flex games to go 8-8 or 9-7, then they have a decent shot at making the playoffs.

Count the packers out....favres back

Heh, I'm not gonna be offering it this year but someone else can feel free to book the bets

Solid, considering they still made the playoffs last year while Favruh led Minny above all expectations

And where are all the Philly mentions?

Someone booked

with me.

Is there anyone on here who actually wants to take these six-team bets at even money if they're so + EV?

Do you mind answering why not?

I'm not super balla and don't know anything about the NFL but I'd be willing to book some bets (up to maybe $2000 in total) since the math looks OK to me (the only bookie odds I could find in European suggest that the worst 6 teams are about even money to all not make the playoffs) and I need some action to keep me interested as I am playing fantasy NFL this year.

Escrow if we can agree on a person and they will do it otherwise matchbook Xbets look like it will work?