Originally Posted by MikeSki
man this is dangerous, what happens if he loses a -600 SUPER LOCK? kinda nervous about this one
Rousey is an incredible talent but I basically never favourites that are that huge due to the fact that 'anything can happen in MMA' (Kim's freak injury vs Maia, Erick Silva getting DQ'd against Carlo Prater, various horrible judging decisions etc etc.)
Rousey probably wins it 5 in 6 times or more but there's never *huge* value in that big of a favourite.
You're better off betting Rousey inside distance tbh, since it's a title fight and therefore plenty of time, and she's finished 100% of the fights in her career by sub so far.
Basically, if Rousey loses it'll be either a) because she can't get the takedown and loses a decision in a standup fight or b) because she gets knocked out by one hard punch that connects. Both are unlikely, and she's probably around a -600 favourite imo, but last I saw Rousey inside distance was more like -380 or something and she definitely wins inside distance at least 80% of the time if she wins this fight.