Bm taking 100k today boys, get your bets in. Not paying till January though.

pretty sure Mihkel05 doesn't think that

lol no. Go back and re read.

He did clearly say the value was on the Trump side a few pages back mocking my Clinton play. While Trump has steamed in since then, he's still not going to win so it doesn't matter unless the entire purpose was for arbing, which he never stated

I don't think he's clearly stated which side he bet on, he went on about how I was trying to get 'free plays' from him, but regardless of who wins he's going to show up in the thread and claim he won half a million dollars without stating any positions prior his results, because that's what he does

It's clear he's a sharp bettor, his failings are at acting like a normal human being.

cause when i want to interact with normal human beings, i come to the two plus two sports betting forum

perfect

Absolutes wrt a probability on a sports betting forum but please tell us more about who should and shouldn't be allowed to contribute.

Look, Iowa you contribute well to the forum while still being a bit of a dick sometimes. You're obviously one of the best if not the best sports bettor who posts here and I admire that. I think your posting is actually great for the forum and if Thremp posted the way you do no one would have a problem with him. I know you're Thremp's friend so of course you're a bit biased here. I strongly dislike him so I am biased as well.

He is rude, abusive and unpleasant towards basically everyone except for maybe less than a dozen regulars here, he takes 'trolling' to the level of being abusive and slandering people with false accusations (I will give him that he also goes after actual scammers as well, which is good, but he has made provably false accusations against me multiple times and apparently has done the same to others).

At the end of the day i'm sure he's better at sports betting than me, and good for him. One day I legitimately hope to be as good at sports betting as you guys are, I win a small amount of money and posting here at 2p2 and reading threads has helped me improve a bit and i've met some cool people to talk to about sports betting.

Thremp contributes next to nothing to the sports betting forum other than bragging about results without posting picks, occasionally telling someone their math is wrong without elaborating and generally creating a completely toxic atmosphere by derailing threads with torrents of abuse directed at whoever his latest target is. He doesn't understand the line between being a troll and just abusing people to amuse himself.

I had nothing to do with him being banned, if i'm reading the ATF thread correctly he was abusing multiple users including being racist and making false accusations among other things. Personally, I have reported him once for making provably false and slanderous posts about me, which I proved he did to the moderator, and he did not show any evidence to support his claims because no such evidence exists, so the post was removed. After that was taken care of I went back to ignoring him including multiple threads where he took jabs at me trying to bait me into responses.

I have no problem with him calling me a $77 noob or whatever other insults he wants to throw, but when he posts lies publicly to damage somebody's reputation that is not okay. When he's being racist and abusive towards multiple posters and hostile towards new posters who are asking actual questions and trying to learn that also isn't okay. That's why he's got a temp ban, and if it's a permanent ban i'm of the opinion the forum will be a better place without him. If the majority of people disagree, then sure, he can come back and do his thing, and when he inevitably crosses the line again he'll get reported by someone again and banned again because he can't help himself.

I think he seems like a legitimately sad and negative person, but then again i've never met him and can only go on his personality on the forum. I hope he's actually a good person and this is just his way of blowing off steam but I have no interest in ever interacting with him again. If his impressive claims about his wealth and success are true, it's very sad and pathetic that he feels the need to belittle others on the internet to make himself feel better or show off or whatever the reason is that he acts the way that he does. If his claims aren't true, then lol.

This got way too long, at the end of the day if people want to discuss election betting lets resume doing that, or if we want to talk about who is richest and who has the biggest penis we can do that instead. Thremp will either be back in a month or he won't, and nothing anyone says here will have any effect on it one way or the other.

https://www.youtube.com/v/v9XW6P0tiVc?start=284&end=299

thats a lot of words, swoop.

its just an internet forum. calm down.

Swoop for making SB great again.

Back on topic, brief explanation of why Nate's analysis doesn't match some of the other analysts this cycle - he's either going to be seen as the only one who didn't see an easy Clinton win and keep his genius tag, or if he predicts Nevada for Trump and it goes hard Clinton (and she easily wins NC/FL etc) I think his aura of 'best weighted polling analysis' guy will be done. Sam Wang went on the record claiming Trump gets under 240 EVs today, so only one of them is going to nail it

https://politicalwire.com/2016/11/05...mps-direction/

Will be interesting to see how it plays out on election day.

Re: Thremp, the main reason I support him being banned is he called me a scammer on a forum where reputation is everything with no proof because he just felt like it and refused to retract his claims until the mods forced him to. My actual name/ID is tied to my twoplustwo account, etc. so it it crosses a line. If he comes back and continues to act the same way that's fine, as long as he's not making false and defamatory claims about people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7g-oG6uzM8

Wish I traded off Clinton's 1.4 the other day, did not have the time to validate assumptions that it was going to drop back to 1.2 but I had that sure feeling it was going to.

Found a book that lets me parlay the Senate races. Took every 10-13 leg combo of the Ds to win from 50-52 seats, leaving out Bayh and Murphy, in the event the Ds crush nationally and get the right 52+ seats it's +3400, obviously it's a substantial dog but no way it's that high. Will break even or better as long as Cortez Masto wins, there are no major upsets and the Ds get to 50 with one of Kander, Hassan or Ross and win every less competitive race.

i anticipated much more damaging leaks than what has come out. looking bad for trump bets

Thinking there may be value on Kander at +210 in MO-SEN. Very red state, but he's been polling well and ran a very good campaign. Surprised that Kander is such a dog, feels like a flip and Hassan's in a similar spot polling wise and is a small fav in a race that also feels flippy.

taiwan coming in strong on trump now

how do i interpret this representation

its from the right-leaning NY Times

trump even money now do i hop off this train with no brakes and sell or just ride it out?

any election experts who don't live int he USA want to weigh in

Several hours ago betting on 5D was Hilary -750, like 1.5 hours ago it was -250, 30 min. ago it was -120, then went back to -175 and now -130.

i feel like the NY Times should give me and thremp our own website

i promise i won't inject my own politics into it (because i have none except making $) and i won't attack people who have differing opinions on twitter to keep my job

at least guys like nate can get another two months of articles writing about how it is everyone elses fault but his before ESPN fires him jan 1

Trump -120 now.

Trump -185 now. Wow.

Trump -320 now. lol