lol indeed. nadjorf, what is your definition of "super thin"?

Is there anyone out there who thinks this is still a race? I can't believe there are still people backing Trump on Betfair.

yes

This

I remember last cycle Najdorf being 100% convinced Romney would win and arguing that the polls I was using to show Obama leading outside the margin of error were wrong.

I was slightly worried I had read things wrong this time but this news cycle ended the race, Hillary won't be going below -300 again and it's over this time. Trump has to improve his national polling drastically and it just isn't going to happen without a 9/11 level terror attack (and maybe not even then) especially with more leaks to come of Trump saying things that will energise women and minorities to turn out for the D ticket and drive more moderate Rs to Johnson.

The senate races will be where it gets interesting now as the in danger Rs distance themselves from Trump - my gut is that it's still close but lean D for Senate control with 50-51D being most likely and the Dems pick up a bunch of house seats and win the popular vote but not enough to overcome the gerrymandering there but if Trump goes full ****** in the next debate and becomes an even larger drag on the ticket anything is possible.

The only place there may be R value is if the price on Rubio, Portman or Heck gets good to survive in the Senate - none are locks with Trump dragging the ticket down, but unless things deteriorate they should hold/win respectively. I think Toomey is doomed after Trump's meltdown this week in PA now and that gets the Dems to 49 if Heck, Rubio and Portman all win on the R side and Bayh, Feingold, Duckworth and McGinty all win on the D side that means senate control will come down to, assuming Hillary wins, whether the Ds can win one of NH/NC/MO

I guess a lot depends on how the last few weeks of the campaign go and whether Trump can recover or go on offense, or whether he remains under siege for the rest of the campaign as leaks of him saying stupid things sink him.

I remember Nate Silver being so off in his voter turnout that an error the opposite way would've lead to landslide victories against him. (~4%)

I guess we can create narrative fallacies for everyone with write ups to support a worldview we believe in rather than what every pro says: "Dunno. Model says to bet it."

Bet the max, just like 4 years ago. I like my life hedges. [insert LOL life hedges here]

My pinny acc't was deactivated long ago. As you should already have guessed.


Wait, I mean, OMG Mister! A whole 25k? Geez that must be all the moniez in the world!!1??!1!! You're so dreamy. [/Swoons]


And this time I even saved myself the donations to the RNC. #winning.

I only account in Dodge Rams. I stand to win a Dodge Ram if my horse comes in.

thats impressive you were making 25k bets at a time?

I think he means the $100 max at 5d

Don't feed the 'i'm richer than you look at me i'm a millionaire and all my friends are millionaires' club.

$77 trolls are my personal fave. How do you gamble for a decade and not get rich other than being terrible at it? Just doesn't compute.

Can someone with access please tell me what the max bet for the election that pinny is taking?

5k

lol at with access arent u a pro?

yup. no need for pinny. who are you?

seems like you most def have a need given ur original question ldo

FWIW i'm seeing 10k for the election now on Pinny. Was 3 a few days ago so limits going up pretty fast.

it's varied between 3,5, and 10 all year. bm takes way more

yup sab is correct as usual. bm actually tends to take more than pin on everything, i wonder when they will be sharper?

Looks like Nate's final play (If has has any money left) will be on the Trump Train.

My book has HRC -260. Why wouldnt I back up the truck here value-wise?

Because most polling data shows that she isn't that likely to win the election? You'd need to have some serious disagreement with the current black box turnout modeling to go for that. (You may very well be correct.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias much?

Even Nate ****ing Silver thinks it's a terrible bet at this point.

Mihkel thinks Trump is the favorite

I'm pretty convinced Iowa and Mihkel are the same person at this point. Better chime in to defend yourself - I mean "friend" Iowa!