Quote:
Originally Posted by Poogs
Naj always gets a little cooky during elections
This
I remember last cycle Najdorf being 100% convinced Romney would win and arguing that the polls I was using to show Obama leading outside the margin of error were wrong.
I was slightly worried I had read things wrong this time but this news cycle ended the race, Hillary won't be going below -300 again and it's over this time. Trump has to improve his national polling drastically and it just isn't going to happen without a 9/11 level terror attack (and maybe not even then) especially with more leaks to come of Trump saying things that will energise women and minorities to turn out for the D ticket and drive more moderate Rs to Johnson.
The senate races will be where it gets interesting now as the in danger Rs distance themselves from Trump - my gut is that it's still close but lean D for Senate control with 50-51D being most likely and the Dems pick up a bunch of house seats and win the popular vote but not enough to overcome the gerrymandering there but if Trump goes full ****** in the next debate and becomes an even larger drag on the ticket anything is possible.
The only place there may be R value is if the price on Rubio, Portman or Heck gets good to survive in the Senate - none are locks with Trump dragging the ticket down, but unless things deteriorate they should hold/win respectively. I think Toomey is doomed after Trump's meltdown this week in PA now and that gets the Dems to 49 if Heck, Rubio and Portman all win on the R side and Bayh, Feingold, Duckworth and McGinty all win on the D side that means senate control will come down to, assuming Hillary wins, whether the Ds can win one of NH/NC/MO
I guess a lot depends on how the last few weeks of the campaign go and whether Trump can recover or go on offense, or whether he remains under siege for the rest of the campaign as leaks of him saying stupid things sink him.