i don't know about politics but is gary johnson ralph nadering this election

explain this to me please naj

Was going to play big on hilldog at like -300 but health and emails scared me off. Thank god.

Looks like another solid losing year for anyone following 538.

+210 and a 44.3% chance of winning?

One time!

Exactly how many different excuses and changes to the story did the media give for why she collapsed a few weeks ago? That was like a 2 day story at best. No chance they would ever tarnish her chances to win. After Trump beats her down on debate 1 does he drop below +140?

If Trump wins the first debate convincingly i'd expect it to go to Trump +140 Hillary -150 or so. That said, unless she's more sick than we suspect, I think Hillary is the favourite in the first debate and if she blows Trump out it's headed back to -300

Pneumonia story I think is more about Hillary's lack of honesty than actual likelihood she's going to die, but you never know. In any other year she would be getting crushed by the R nominee, but for every legitimate scandal Hillary has and there are several, Trump has a whole pile as well so it's hard for him to run on honesty and integrity when he won't release his taxes and his foundation's done just as much shady stuff as Clinton's.

I took Not Trump -200 two days ago (prefer it to Hillary straight up in case of death mostly) as my only bet so far, I think there will be plenty of time to get off for a small loss if Hillary's campaign implodes and she loses the debates and if she wins the first debate or Trump using his charity to pay his legal bills story picks up the traction it deserves it could be game over, I still think demographics are king and while i'm confident Kasich or Rubio would be winning right now, Trump is a uniquely bad nominee that will probably cost the Rs an election they should win. It feels like Trump has to win Pennsylvania, Virginia or Colorado to win and I don't like his chances in any of the three. Johnson could play spoiler in CO, but even then Trump needs to sweep IA/NH/FL/OH/NC and that's just to have a path.

Senate is interesting, I think the median outcome right now is about 50-50. Feingold and Duckworth are pickups, Bayh is probably a pickup, Reid's old seat is a probable loss and then the Ds should win about 2/6 of the remaining competitive seats (PA, MO, FL, OH, NH, NC). OH looks like it's going R, I think Rubio will retain, I think the Dems win PA and probably NH (and if they lose NH they have about the same chance to win one of MO/NC/random upset)

I could see the Dems as low as 48 and as high as 53, but 50 seems like the median result.

I think Trump is the favorite in every debate. He's an alpha and won't hold back or back down like Mormon Mitt. All he really has to do is point out what a failure Obama's presidency has been, and how many more trillions USA is in debt now because of his presidency just like Obama did regarding Bush in 08. That is all I can remember Obama doing in 08. Bush this Bush that and it worked like a charm. All Trump really has to do is the above while not pissing too many people off. It remains to be seen if he can manage that.

I see no way Hillary can be the favorite in any debates. All of her campaign efforts so far have left everybody so uninspired that Obama is trying to shame black people into voting for her. I guess she can maybe go the racist or sexist route on Trump and win.

I agree. Trump is free rolling the debates unless he drops a hard R or something.

Didn't polls show that Trump actually didn't do that great in terms of before-and-after polling during the primary debates? I'm not sure but I want to say it was on 538 (I understand the overfitting critique on their prediction model, but I assume they're not getting something like this wrong).

Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politi...cid=spartandhp

I think the anarchy in NC just sealed the deal.

BUILD THE WALL. ALL ABOARD THE TRUMP TRAIN BABY CHOO CHOOO

did you guys see the news Obama used a fake name to talk to hillary on emails? i cant bet anti-hillary anymore. i think there is a serious chance dems win by outright voter fraud. fbi DoJ and DoS are totally corrupted now

'now'

Lolyeahok @ trump winning the debates

how can anyone trust 538 or the princeton polling site

i know they claim they take statistical approaches, but kind of hard to buy it when they are actively campaigning for one candidate

People place way too much faith in polling.

Hillary energizes no one. She could get 100% of the African American vote and she'll still get get less actual black votes than Obama did. I suspect she'll get 80-85% which makes it considerably worse.

Voter turnout is the real dark art of modeling.

So Trump won every poll minus CNN. Nate Silver goes with that poll to prove that she won the debate and the election is now totally in Hilldawg's favor, but admits the data is noisy at best and democratic leaning. Hillary up bigger in the betting markets

lol @ any polls saying Trump won. As someone who gives zero f's about politics, that was the most lopsided debate beat-down I've ever seen and markets swung massively during the debate to reflect that (before any polls or commentary by 538 or whoever).

Not a Hillary fan at all despite being a democrat but yeah she did much better than she did in the primary debates and line movement reflected that. Trump scored a couple own goals he did OK early but got worse as the debate went on. Very happy with my not trump -200 currently, not adding more yet but I may later in the cycle

The most recent 3 posts are also in the low-content thread along with some that followed them.

How long ago it must seem to you, that first debate in 2012!

In some swing states like NC, independents moved away from HJC when interviewed post-debate. Winning over the media-loving, HS-debate crowd, is not like winning over the 10-15% of people who are undecided or 8-13% that are 3rd party at this point.

Betting markets are super-thin for an event like this, anyone relying on them gets what they deserve.

So can we assume you've bet more than the 25k boomaker is taking or the 10k at pinny?

Naj always gets a little cooky during elections