When I saw your hilarious bets against Trump and on Bush I gave up long before I got to the ******s itt.

I dunno, what are the odds in an election where nobody wants to ever hear the name Bush again and Hilldog is regarded as 'dishonest/untrustworthy' by 55% of Democrats that a protest candidate would be a good pick?

Hillary was good bet 3 weeks ago +100. Now -220 not so sure, but still probably +EV

Hi,

Did you ever learn to read the 538 charts? I remember reading you and SwoopAE arguing about them back during previous cycles and neither of you had any clue how they worked. Would you like a basic primer on how to read charts? It may help!

PS: Hope the Trump Train recovers some of your prior Obama losses.

Anyone have any idea how 5Dimes is handling the nomination bet settlement date?

It's very in play that Hillary gets the nom at the convention and then the FBIden switch comes during no-news August.

I got all over Biden in March.

trump +300 all day.

an economic collapse or (god forbid) a terrorist attack will shake up the polls by 20% plus.

My guess is that if she gets the nomination at the convention then the bet is finished at that point (whether she gets arrested or abducted by aliens 5 seconds after the bet still is finished.) again, just a guess tho.

After asking for a more specific settlement date, 5Dimes tells me:

The tickets will settle once there is an official result of the Democratic Nominee.

looks like you asked them already but to confirm what you already know... its based on who the party nominates at the convention in july

i didnt just like trump, i liked cruz too. so how is 2/2 out of a crowded field "really bad" but luck? can you do those odds out for us?

trump is very much the public square line right now you can verify that looking at the odds on pin/bm/bo/sb. so go ahead and bet some more hillary to win now...

biden has a lot of value now if you can get some good prices. they were as high as +10,000 a week ago which is just like free money. i put the odds of hillary out of the race BEFORE the dem convention at about 50%. she is in a world of hurt. trump would beat hillary, but could lose to biden, but hillary wont be president.

everyone see WaPo front page today? this problem is not going away....

I agree that it's a flip for Hillary to make the convention. Both the Guccifer deal and State very publicly and very thoroughly covering their ass are excellent for my side.

My only concern is the McAuliffe investigation; they might have her so completely dead to rights that they're extending the investigation into the Foundation influence-peddling and probably a little light treason (or at least espionage).

For the Biden switch to work best, Bernie has to drop. Then it'll take his brocialists about a week to boo-hoo before they're 85% back on board with the party.

The timetable is accelerating. I even put a little on Bernie to drop out within the next week at 50:1.

shane, i dont think that is an issue because their are TWO fbi investigations. i think they are independent of each other.

why do you think bernie will drop though? he seems to want to win. he is talking about how he will stay in until the convention.

also, what are the worst odds you bet biden at

I'm on Biden on an average of 37:1. Worst bet was was 20:1 but that was only $50.

I got in a decent amount on Biden because I was bitter I didn't fire a penny on Trump when the odds were delicious (I became a believer when he was only like 4:1 to nom). I also had long heard scuttlebutt from plugged-in people that the FBI was absolutely ****ing pissed at Hillary - and I wanted a nice score. Plus this sweat has been beyond enjoyable.

Since day one the party has made it clear that Bernie is never getting the nomination. The money men have no use for an old commie and black people simply do not vote for him. The Dems never win Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida without a strong black turnout where they can really put their urban machinery to work.

I have no idea what his endgame is but he's maximized his value. He could play ball and bow out with all sorts of goodies for himself, appointments for his people, and all-you-can-eat pork for Vermont. Or he could go down swinging and gain nothing - other than the undying wrath of the Democratic Party for him and everyone he's ever known.

The Clinton machine is a shadow of its former self, but Bernie is not beating both the Clinton machine and the Obama machine. I have no idea how they'll compel him to play ball but I am certain they'll empty the clip when Donald's lead starts to open up. Diamond Joe the Savior running a four month sprint campaign is easily the Dems best shot.

Now we got Bernie and Trump supposedly debating before the June 7th primary - Clinton refused to participate. I would say poor move by Trump since he has the nomination, but then again all his hairbrained ideas have panned out to prove him a mad genius time and time again (at least so far.) Definitely will hurt Clinton tho with her not participating.

I legit think Joe doesnt want to do it at all - I think he has lost some of the fire

And the guy who's been ten steps ahead for the entire process started his speculation yesterday:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...ked-/?page=all

i dont support trump for president, though i am sympathetic to many things he says... but i dont think its disputable that he is a master campaigner. is he running literally the best presidential campaign in american history?

shane, are those odds on biden to be dem nominee or president? what "plugged-in" people are you talking about?

im not convinced dems will be able to put biden in. i know on the republican side if they had tried to cheat trump and put in romney or kasich the republican party he would have stood 0% chance of winning a general election. i dont follow democrat side as much but maybe they have the same dynamic where bernie supporters would refuse to vote biden. they may not have a choice and have to let bernie take it if he wants it.

Nominee. He's back down to +2000 on 5Dimes today.

NYC is filled with FBI agents. I live in the suburbs of NYC.

do they say she is gonna be indicted and put in jail? or just that this is so damaging politically she will have to cut a deal and drop out?

msnbc its all over. all that remains is for our winners to be graded.

http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/wat...t-693313091808

Donald Trump announcing his running mate/Vice President pick at 11am EST on Friday.

https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/stat...01427444264961

Mike Pence goes into odds-on with a couple of Euro books but the weight of money is on Newt Gingrich according to Oddschecker.



Mike Pence '95% likely' to get it as well apparently.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...gov-mike-pence

Another year, more Republican loadup from 538.

Maybe this year they'll finally be able to ship home a winner.

Fact: Hill Dawg doesnt skate past a conviction and then lose the WH. It may be tighter than people imagine (as right it should be) but Gary Johnson will syphon a real # of votes off of Trump and hand Hillary the presidency

Fact: 538 has Trump over 40% today. I hope all the Silver slurpers are loading up.

Just wait for the convention bounce in his "predictive" model.