He's not undervalued at +1200 at all, +2500 seems about right to actually win the nomination, although i'd probably put his chances at under 4% rather than over 4% if I had to pick a side

Cruz will poll in the top 5 most of the way but I really, really doubt he's going to be nominee since he's known by wall street as 'the guy who cost us a pile of money but shutting down the government for no reason'

I like Cruz +6600 as a trading position to arb later but he's not going to win.

It's looking more and more like Rubio, apparently Kasich is too moderate for the base which kind of sucks as he'd be a less bad president than most of them and Bush can't control his gaffes and has the liability of Bush as a surname. Trump is still sucking all of the anti-establishment air out of the room, Carson will fall but hasn't yet for some reason, the only way I can see Cruz being in the final two is if he inherits most of Carson's supporters, then most of Trump's and he'll need Trump's campaign to collapse before the states actually start voting to have time to steal his supporters. That said, it's WAY too early and there's time for a Bush resurgence, some other candidate to rise

I'm actually surprised guys like Lindsey Graham aren't doing better, he's an idiot but he has the resume to be taken seriously and is really far right without looking like an extremist. It's far too late for him though.

Donald Trump 10%
Ben Carson 1%
Jeb Bush 20%
Marco Rubio 50%
Ted Cruz 3%
Mike Huckabee 1%
Rand Paul 0%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Chris Christie 0%
John Kasich 4%
Other 10%

Seems about right to me, although that just took me 30 seconds and isn't based on much

Also Mihkel now that someone actually told me who you are, I find your posts even more amusing/******ed than I did previously

D side seems something like 85% Hillary, 10% Bernie, 5% other or thereabouts

The more I think about it the less I think Rubio should be the R nominee but I don't feel like any of the other candidates are going to be either... someone has to win by default like Romney did out of this lot of candidates, Trump is the only 'interesting' candidate in that he's different but I mean come on it's Donald Trump - Ben Carson is an idiot and is useful in his role as the 'look the Republican party is not racist we considered the black guy' Herman Cain style candidate of the cycle but if he was actually nominated they would struggle to win 100 electoral votes

I keep feeling like Bush should win by default but he's just so bad as a candidate, I watched the whole Republican debate today and Bush probably had the equal worst performance along with Carson - if Christie didn't have bridge-gate to deal with and was trusted by the R base i'd like his chances but he's finished as a serious candidate with the bridge thing hanging over his head because it cemented his reputation as a bully - plus as sad as it is to say he's still too fat to be President. People can be shallow

At this point if Bush continues to disqualify himself

Kasich performed pretty well I think overall but then again I lean liberal to libertarian on most issues and the voter base he's trying to appeal to is conservative so if he's appealing to me (relative to most of the other candidates) he's not appealing to the right people.

I still feel like 50% is maybe too high for Rubio at the moment but the establishment still has to be favoured over the anti-establishment candidate whoever it ends up being simply because the Republicans will rally to the establishment when it looks like crazy will win the nomination because they don't want to lose 10 senate seats, lose the house and get embarrassed in the national popular vote - Hillary may be a bad-ish candidate and seen as untrustworthy, elitist and unlikeable but she's also seen as serious, experienced, presidential and mainstream - the Republicans need a mainstream candidate to counter that to have any chance at all in the election. Honestly even Bernie Sanders could beat most of the people on the stage and he's way too far to the left for the average american.

I would have bet against Donald Trump at 50-1 a couple months ago but the field is so weak he could win through name recognition, entertainment value and 'lol I want to see what happens' value alone... he's +350 on 5d right now and Not Trump is -530 - theoretically we should be hammering Not Trump but I don't even know anymore with Bush falling as a candidate, if Rubio falls who does the establishment have left to fall back to if Christie is damaged goods and unelectable and Kasich isn't catching fire with the base? Fiorina is a joke whose only political experience is losing a senate race, Ted Cruz is as anti-establishment as they come... it almost feels like if Romney jumped in the race they might nominate him again, i'm kind of surprised Paul Ryan didn't run to be honest. He's definitely missing his only chance by not running this cycle, he'll be damaged goods after being speaker.

If Rubio falls apart as a candidate at this point the Republicans are truly ****ed because he's their only hope of being competitive in the general at this stage. Adelson's puppet might actually win if Hillary runs a poor campaign, but there's probably value on the next president being a D at -145 if I had to guess because that's probably about the price for Hillary vs Rubio given the Ds have a favourable electoral map (if they win FL or OH they basically win, and they can still win if they lose both if things fall into place) but the Republicans are way more likely to screw up the nominating process and nominate an unelectable idiot

aaand that'll do for rambling

swoop you clearly have zero idea what youre talking about.

Feel free to make a post longer than one sentence or offer random props and stuff, who knows I might actually take one since I 'have no idea what i'm doing'

I believe his website is http://election.princeton.edu/ It looks like most of the data has not been updated since 2014, but there was a blog post as recently as three weeks ago

if anyone here has a good reputation and wants to bet with me ill take

NO rubio
NO clinton
REP to win white house

Where can i bet this

+7500 on 5dimes to be democratic nominee.

Bet 3 cents to win $1 that Biden will run for president in 2016 on predictit

I'm guessing nowhere since he isnt running for President - I think you can take action on if he will enter the race; but check out http://www.sportsbookreview.com/poli...tting-markets/ for an updated list of where you can bet on who getting the nom/winning.

This only has merit if the FBI investigation goes down bad for Hillary and the Dems need to recruit somebody fast, because Sanders has no chance to win Presidency, and thus will not be nominated.

i can only bet $5 on 5dimes

At what prices? and for Rubio/Clinton to win nomination or presidency?

Also, what references do you have?

what are the chances of that happening?

pin vig free line. and if pin doesnt have it bookmaker vig free line. i have been vouched for in the mid-stakes NLHE sports betting thread.

i want rubio to not win republican nominee. biden to win nominee. clinton to not win presidency. republican to win white house.

You want to bet Biden to win Democratic nominee? What odds? How much? Not listed on pinny or bookmaker.

5dimes has odds +7500 ill take vig free. as much as you can handle

Can you parlay people to win dem/rep nominations on any of the sites?

Sure. I'll play along (disclaimer: I know nothing and you should absolutely pay no attention to what I have to say).

Rubio: 37%
Trump: 19%
Cruz: 12%
Bush: 10%
Carson: 9%
Christie: 4%
Fiorina: 3%
Huckabee: 3%
Kasich: 2%
Paul: 1%

(NB: as per the instructions, I only ranked the ten candidates listed so they add up to 100%. If allowed, I would've had a "Field" category to catch the others, but since that wasn't allowed, I just ranked the ten and none others so it added up to 100%).

Very close to zero. Betting Biden to win presidency is basically betting Hillary drops dead in the next year, that's the only way it happens.

Probability of a 68 y/o woman dying in a given year: 1.35%

Lower in Hillary's case than a random person because if she had a major health issue it'd be known and she also has access to better medical care as a millionaire than the average person

Thread is surprisingly dead. All you busto libs blow your wads fading me on Trump or what?

R.I.P. Nate Silver

Make America Great, TomG

awful picks OP :-(

it's funny reading over the rationale from 6 months ago vs. how things played out, even analysis that was correct yet still played out in the opposite direction.

it is a wacky season of political betting. i still can't decide if people who bet on trump near the end of 2015 were really good or really bad at political betting.