Quote:
Originally Posted by kanyewestisgod10
lol asking people straight up is a longcon? if you want some EV cruz is still undervalued at +2500, +1200. its a three way battle between trump/cruz/rubio
He's not undervalued at +1200 at all, +2500 seems about right to actually win the nomination, although i'd probably put his chances at under 4% rather than over 4% if I had to pick a side
Cruz will poll in the top 5 most of the way but I really, really doubt he's going to be nominee since he's known by wall street as 'the guy who cost us a pile of money but shutting down the government for no reason'
I like Cruz +6600 as a trading position to arb later but he's not going to win.
It's looking more and more like Rubio, apparently Kasich is too moderate for the base which kind of sucks as he'd be a less bad president than most of them and Bush can't control his gaffes and has the liability of Bush as a surname. Trump is still sucking all of the anti-establishment air out of the room, Carson will fall but hasn't yet for some reason, the only way I can see Cruz being in the final two is if he inherits most of Carson's supporters, then most of Trump's and he'll need Trump's campaign to collapse before the states actually start voting to have time to steal his supporters. That said, it's WAY too early and there's time for a Bush resurgence, some other candidate to rise
I'm actually surprised guys like Lindsey Graham aren't doing better, he's an idiot but he has the resume to be taken seriously and is really far right without looking like an extremist. It's far too late for him though.