someone was talking to me about DFS once IRL (in real life) and they were talking about tomg and i'm like yea g123 is the best and he's like i mean tommyg

you gotta re-establish your dominance on DFS, political betting, and the stand up comedy world

Last time Microbob banned me for 'politarding' by trying to post analysis, that was fun

No idea who you are, I've never claimed to be up piles at anything other than sc2 and politics betting, and I am in both cases, so whatever. Last cycle I was down a small amount on senate races, I won in 2008/12 on Obama and a bunch of Obama carries x state bets, Romney to win R nom and a few senate races, and was down slightly in 2010 due to Feingold losing although Reid winning was a big plus for me.

Yes, I have a job with a company where some of what I do is placing bets, no, i'm not some sort of handicapping expert as the software does 90% of the work for me, yes I have been profitable in this position, if I wasn't I wouldn't still be employed, no I do not care to engage with some anonymous idiot on the internet any further on the matter.

At this stage i'd lean towards Rubio as the nominee as much as I dislike the angry little thirsty man but the price isn't good enough to fire and I expect the Ds to hold the white house with the higher turnout in a presidential cycle. R's hold the house due to gerrymandering and Senate is too close to call this far out, Ds should have a net gain but who knows if it'll be enough given it's the wave year of 2010 senators up. Feingold wins his seat back in WI, but odds are already too steep so whatever.

Not Carson at -625 to win R nominee looks tempting on predictit, so does Not Cruz -500. No Way that Christie or Paul win in the current republican party either.

On the D side I don't want to fade Sanders yet because if Hillary's campaign implodes he's 'the guy in second who the base loves' now that Biden's not running, and O'Malley lacks the charisma. I actually expect Sanders to win at least one of Iowa and NH so theres a good chance any Hillary backer could get a better price later - both electorates are full of white liberals who are Sanders main base. Warren could have beaten Hillary but she's not running.

Swoop,

I'm saying that your records (when you bother to keep them) on this forum are obviously fraudulent. Any idiot can see you scam your records, it is beyond dispute from anyone who isn't a total moron. (Feel free to contact PropPlayer and ask if what you're doing is "legit".)

You backed out of a 10k bet because you know what you're doing is fraudulent. I just don't want people harmed by your "up boatloads" idiocy.

Politics betting is easy to beat. I'm sure I've won more on Obama 2012 than your lifetime sports betting earnings, but that is because I'm not poor and not an idiot.

Best of luck going forward and no longer keeping a fraudulent record.

I refused to bet with someone who refused to reveal their identity to me while attacking me by name and there's a decent chance you were trying to scam me by demanding an escrow to a personal friend of yours without revealing your identity. You hurled a bunch of abuse at me both publicly and privately while hiding behind your anonymity, how very brave of you. I don't even see you post here other than to abuse me and assuming you're the same person as last time you made a twitter account for the sole purpose of sending abusive messages to me.

I'm not trying to go tout or claim i'm some sicko handicapper, my record is irrelevant, every post I made in the best bet thread several years ago was legitimate, and it's not like it was a phenomenal winrate on a significant sample size anyway. If it matters to you i've run at just about a 1% roi (1.04% to be exact, but i'm allowing for rounding errors) over my last 814k in turnover, which while profitable is nothing special. If you want to bet against my esports handicapping being profitable over 100 publicly posted bets or whatever then by all means set a line and make me an offer. I'm not claiming I crush anything else.

In conclusion, gfy, and stop derailing the thread. Nobody cares how much money you have or how successful you are if you're not posting your picks here. I was on Obama last time around too. Maybe you bet more than I did because you're a super secret billionaire or whatever. Well done, go buy yourself a Lamborghini with all of your billions of dollars or something.

Back on topic, I guess the Rubio rise is a combination of Adelson's backing and Bush's awful couple of weeks - at some point, the establishment will settle on Bush, Rubio or Kasich to go up against whoever hasn't imploded out of the non-establishment candidates. The establishment candidates polling numbers are truly awful, I expected Trump to have fallen by now, and Carson is beyond a joke, but the closer we get to Iowa who knows.

I feel like there will be a lot of value on the senate races this cycle but we're too far out to have enough info yet on most of them.

I don't have any bets yet for this cycle, I was close to firing Kasich during the first R debate (I don't recall the price it was then, I think something like +3000) but didn't pull the trigger

Right now it just feels absurd that anyone other than the last surviving establishment republican could win their nomination because the other candidates are so ridiculous, but who knows

I'm actually kinda surprised that Sanders is the only serious non-Hillary in the D field, there was an opening there but nobody stepped up. Sanders is authentic and likeable but too far left for the general and comes across as the crazy old man to a lot of people despite having a lot of good ideas. Pretty sure democrats know that and will hold their nose and nominate Hillary this time. I'd planned to fire Warren if she got in the race but i'm guessing she plans to run in 2020 if Hillary loses or 2024 if Hillary gets two terms - she's basically a less-extreme Bernie Sanders who comes across better to the public but is equally loved by the base.

I don't think we'll have a real indication of who's going to be the R nominee until the Trump-Carson bubble bursts, and while it's supposed to who knows one of them might not collapse as they're supposed to. I can't imagine the Republican part nominating an African American directly after Obama or any serious political party nominating Donald Trump, but who knows, all of the other candidates are so flawed - Kasich isn't loved enough by the base, Rubio isn't charismatic and Bush is an awful candidate, Christie's dead in the water after the bridge and hurricane then the rest are either bat**** crazy or way too out of step with either the R base or general electorate

Actually I offered for any respected member of this forum to escrow/judge (mod or any well known 1m+ winner). My position that you have inflated your record is beyond question, so much that you are not even quibbling that you fundamentally inflate your record.

The reason this is pertinent is that you have referenced your winning record repeatedly; however, we have no idea what your record is as you don't really track it, and often inflate it. For someone who is repeatedly begging money off the internet, that is ridiculous. People should know about this.

You seem to be posting a lot about my billions. I'm sorry you washed out of your pathetic pro poker career. Guess one of us has to make more than a secretary.

Best of luck rambling about politics (why you were banned before). I'm sure all that drivel that is non-bet related is totally "back on topic".

I have never deliberately inflated my record. I may have made an error here or there posting -110 instead of -111 by mistake when converting prices etc. Every post i've made has been with the intention of reflecting my actual bets, and you were clearly trying to angle shoot me in the proposed bet claiming that any single point error or inaccuracy on any bet made over many years and thousands of bets would be grounds for you to win the bet. You repeatedly refused to agree to reasonable terms or even tell me who you are while i'm not hiding behind anonymity like you. You're a coward, and I suspect an angle-shooting scumbag.

I have no interest in engaging with you any further here or anywhere else unless you tell me who you are, you're welcome to do it via PM if you don't want to do it publicly. I also have no idea what you're referencing about 'begging for money on the internet', i've never asked anyone for money here or anywhere else other than occasionally selling shares on the marketplace to poker tournaments, and all investors were always paid any cashes quickly and with no issues.

I've never claimed to be wealthy or have a huge bankroll, my poker esults are public record, my sharkscope/OPR/hendonmob etc are unblocked, and while my bets are tracked accurately for the job I do now I never kept records for my personal bets as i'd always been a recreational bettor, beyond the posts I made in the various threads here which were always purely to contribute to the forum, I have never asked for anything in my posts.

But hey, if you want to be an ******* on the internet because that's important to you, feel free to continue to show up every few months and randomly derail threads to feed your obsession with me. If your millions of dollars aren't keeping you warm at night, anonymously attacking people on the internet might do the trick.

LOL I love when these anonymous dickheads show up with like 100 posts, yet creepily seem to know everybody's history while making sure no one knows a single thing about them. Unbelievably cowardly.

See... You have been deliberately inflating your record. I would settle for a simple apology and retraction of your claims.

Also, I don't see how opening up threads asking for money at evens to buy stakes in poker tournaments is anything other than begging for me. Please enlighten me. You aren't a winning player are your prior stakes. You almost surely aren't in larger events. Do your investors know this? Do you care? Who knows. Immaterial to me. But when your reference your inflated records here, that is outright fraud.

Here is your obvious scammy nature. Hope you leave.

Feel free to ask anyone who is not a dip**** if this isn't scammy as ****. Randomly improving the lines you get when steam moves against you?

Holy ****. This is ZeeJustin level of stupidity.

I assume Poogs is your real name.

My real name is in a large number of my threads on 2p2, and you're the one attacking me and calling me out. The least you could do is have some decency and share your identity as well if you're going to make public claims about my integrity.

If it's really important to you you could re-calculate my entire posted betting history in every thread on 2p2 with any units added totalled as seperate bets, I have no idea if that would make my overall number of units won higher or lower, in that thread I was treating every match bet on as 1u, which I openly stated, sure it's not super scientific but I was open about that being what I was doing in the thread. In many cases my actual bet could have been 0.5u or 5u or anything inbetween, I was counting every bet as 1u because that's what we were doing in the best bet thread when the esports thread started, so that's what I did in the esports thread when I was posting picks. At no point did I attempt to solicit anything from anyone or tell anyone to tail me, I have no idea what specifically you're alleging i've done wrong other than not record bets in the same way that you would do it.

Sometimes I added extra units on if the price improved to a price I liked even more than the price I originally bet at so I added more, if the price got worse I wasn't adding extra on because I would have taken the amount I wanted at the original price. I don't know whether you don't understand this or whatever, but NONE OF IT MATTERS and you're derailing this thread for no reason.

Regarding selling action you obviously have no idea how live poker works, people sell action to take shots at bigger buy-in live tournaments with soft fields, do you have any idea how much money you need to be rolled to play 10k mtts? Hint, 100 buy-ins is a million dollars, and bigger swings than 100bi can happen. A large percentage of the fields in these events sell or swap action, that doesn't mean people who sell action are losing players it just means they are reducing their variance in a game by selling action. I know people with seven figure bankrolls who sell action to live tournaments, it's part of poker. Once again, my real name and both live and online stats/screennames, tracked independently by sites like scope/opr were posted in all of my threads where I sold action and nobody was misled in any way, I have no idea what exactly you're implying is unethical about buying and selling action. I've bought plenty of action in other players as well. If you're saying i'm not a winning poker player and therefore it's fraudulent, the numbers disagree with you, yes i'm on a downswing at the moment but i'm still up over 300k lifetime, as I said many times my poker results are publicly tracked and available and I don't think very many people would think I don't have a 20-30% ROI in live MTTs which is around what i'd need to have for my investors to not be getting a bad deal, and if anyone thinks I don't then no one is forcing them to buy shares of my action or anyone elses for that matter

Mods feel free to remove this derail if necessary, I don't know why i'm even responding to this random poster.

You honestly may be too stupid to know you're committing fraud.

Changing the odds of your bet post hoc without adjusting the units artificially inflates your record. Especially betting numbers that move a **** ton.

I would continue to bet against you winning. Lets bet on your next year of $100+ BIs that your ROI is < 0%?

Or perhaps you'll think Prop is a scammer along with every single respected poster on this forum. (Your prior contention.) I don't think 2p2 should be a playpen for scammers. Not sure why a con man would want to know my personal identify for "bravery". Just clean up your act and become a respectable member of the community.

Also, 300k split with your backer? Wow. How do you even pay for food on that wage? I'm more inclined to think you're just an out and out thief now.

Is this for the last week?


Or 7 years?

well it wouldn't be an election betting thread without forum wager challenges and posts questioning people's integrity. now that there is no more microbob we just need najdorf's opinions to get this thread really heated. swoop threw up some red meat for him so hopefully he takes the bait.

Last few months. Over the last 7 years if I had to guess i'd have something like a 0.x% ROI sportsbetting over a low 7 fig turnover. I don't have accurate records though, and i'm not trying to claim anything so lets just say im down a million bucks so Mikhel is happy. I'm pretty sure i'm down slightly in MMA lifetime after a bad year this year, i'm definitely up in esports and politics betting, and no real significant volume prior to the last few months in anything else.

I don't have accurate lifetime sports betting records as I was purely a recreational sportsbettor until recently (and still am for purposes of bets made with my own money). I'm not selling tips, asking people to tail me or claiming i'm some sort of sicko handicapper.

@Mikhel i've made an average of about 45-50k a year after action bought/sold/etc live and online through poker, that's not exactly spectacular but it's not an unliveable amount either. My worst year is the past year i've made close to nothing; my best year was 2013, I netted just under 100k after action sold/backing etc. At no point did I borrow money from anyone and I took a part time job this year because I needed to make some guaranteed money. At no point have I claimed anything else other than my actual results so I have no idea what you're upset about. If you like we can say that i've made -10,000 units betting on esports if that makes you feel better. I have no desire to go over my lifetime records and get an accurate number to prove things to a random anonymous idiot on the internet.

Will be interesting to see what Najdorf has to say about the election, if I had to guess he thinks Republicans will hold the white house, house and senate after the election

I'm also really sad that Rick Perry dropped out before saying anything spectacularly dumb by his standards this time.

I have no interest in this as i've reduced my ABI lately due to tougher games and the bulk of 100+ buyins I play are during sunday majors, where the variance even over a year is absurd. I'm probably going to play less than 1500 $100+ buyin mtts and while I believe I have a profitable expectation on those specific MTTs I have no interest in raising the variance even further through a bet (I certainly wouldn't be profitable at a 100+ ABI right now, but that's why my ABI isn't that high right now)

If you want to bet against me being profitable across all MTTs in 2016 I would insta snap that obviously.

Also for what it's worth I will never bet with you on anything unless you provide me with your actual identity unless you're reputable on 2p2 (hint: you're not), so there's no point in proposing further bets unless you plan to do that

I find it weird you have no issues soliciting money anonymously from strangers off the internet, yet demand my identity to have a bet.

Kinda a weird double standard?

Though I take it you concede that you were purposefully inflating your record? Or are you saying that you were too stupid to know that it is obvious record inflation?

I can't do anything anonymously from this account, my real name is very publicly linked to my 2p2 account and I have posted it multiple times on this forum including in many threads where i've sold action. You could quickly find my real name reading through my old posts if you were so inclined.

Regarding selling action, i'm not soliciting money anonymously from anyone, and all of my investors have been satisfied that I have fulfilled my end of any agreement each time i've sold action. I've had packages that have both won and lost a lot of money, that's how poker and gambling work in general.

You can call it whatever you want, I was clear about how I was calculating my units in the esports thread and wasn't using the record for anything other than entertainment purposes. I was posting the average price I got regardless of my actual bet size to reflect each actual bet on a match as 1 unit regardless of the number of actual units bet. At no point did I claim it was anything other than that. In many cases my actual bets would have been multiple units or partial units. I have no idea if the end result was me inflating or deflating my record calculating it in that manner because that wasn't the point of any of it.

If you want to make a bet that i'm down units lifetime in sc2 or politics betting or the 1% roi over my last 817k volume is real (1.09% as of this post minus any rounding errors but i'll claim 1% for purposes of the bet), then i'm more than happy to make that bet under the condition you give me your real name otherwise how about you move on with your life

The reason I want your name if we make any bet is so that I can make it public if you scam me on any bet made as anonymous people in the internet are prone to do. It'd also be nice to know who's obsessed with me as you seem to be.

According to ancestry.com my dad was half black but he never told us

Lot of people saying Jeb is toast. I don't disagree he's struggling. Let's get back on topic with a team building exercise for everyone. Your challenge is to allocate R Nom win probabilities so that they sum to 100%.

Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Mike Huckabee
Rand Paul
Carly Fiorina
Chris Christie
John Kasich

fun fact. at 5'10" rubio would be the shortest president in 40 years and the first since the introduction of bovine growth hormone to our milk.

i was going to condemn swoop for blatant ableism but maybe we need to look in the mirror people.

was this whole thread just your longcon attempt to bait people who actually know what they're talking about into giving predictions?

looks like someones been slamming the jeb bush NO props on 5dime for max bets of $50. hes up to +500 now on 5d. sometimes bovada knows best.


cruz is finally an arb what equity did you give him
2015 10:51 PM Future/Prop $100.00 $6,600.00
Politics - 2016 US Presidential Election - President Elected - Ted Cruz +6600

lol isn't the majority of your posts asking people to give you info.

we're trying to conduct a team building exercise here.

team building activities are designed to help groups develop effective communication and problem solving skills.

if we can work together we grow the strength of the team instead of just focusing on inequality and redistribution.

lol asking people straight up is a longcon? if you want some EV cruz is still undervalued at +2500, +1200. its a three way battle between trump/cruz/rubio