A friend used my Pinny to bet on Trump and it paid out already. Feels pretty lol that my account won 20k on Trump, but I personally got crushed. Didn't lose quite as much as I won on Obama, but still not a good night. Very disappointed Feingold didn't get up in Wisconsin as he was my favourite Senator for voting against the Patriot Act when it was political suicide to do so.

5d hasn't graded my Not Trump bet as a loss yet so I assume they haven't paid winners either. They haven't graded any of the Senate stuff either.

I think Nate came out of this election doing well. He had the highest Trump probability of any major poll analyst and had it as basically a 70/30 whereas guys like Sam Wang had it at 99%. He even had a few of the swing states red (although I was right that Nevada was going blue due to early voting, basically the only thing I got right this cycle).

I personally thought it was about 90% Clinton and lost about 2k on the election, fortunately some of my bet I added on late was Clinton wins popular vote which is going to win although still took a decent loss for the night. Congrats to the Trump backers, especially those that got it near the top.

Ya, having a saner projection than a bunch of other dumb asses totally makes up for a years worth of "analysis" like this:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...tages-of-doom/

Glad you learned a lot from losing that 2k.

maybe if Swoop spent less time writing novels on here and fighting w Thremp than he could actually produce a decent model himself and not punt

I meant that he did better than the other analysts who had it 99% Trump, obviously any analyst that got the call wrong did poorly.

In any case, I tried to be a gracious loser on this one and give a legitimate congrats to the people that got it right. I'm out at this point, with the exception of the MMA thread. It seems pretty clear that my contribution of any sort is not wanted through the rest of the forum.

Thanks for everything i've learned posting here/reading posts etc.

lol my god swoop you are freaking dramatic. Like, how do you handle real life stuff? Im honestly curious.

I'm guessing safe spaces and coloring books, no?

hey look nate silver is completely wrong again

its almost like when one person openly cheers for one side and then all his models match his beliefs it may not be scientifically accurate

Why is this being bumped?

You realise Silver's model had Trump with a 30-something percent chance when other models had it at sub 10% right and that 30% is not zero percent. Hillary did win the popular vote by a couple percent and the candidate who wins the popular vote is going to win the election over half the time, Trump just happened to over perform his polling (within the margin of error in most cases) in the key swing states.

It's the models that had Trump with a sub 5% chance that are more deserving of criticism (mostly Sam Wang and his 99% model)

?!?

Oh how much I love people dramatically proclaiming their exit from a thread, forum, conversation etc., thus levying some sort of 'punishment' on fellow readers, and yet returning to said thread, completely unprovoked and unprompted.

It is a bad look my man. You are quite the emotional little feller, aint you?

It's funny how it's been confirmed by FBI, the AG, Comey, et al that President Trump is not under investigation, but not former AG Lynch, Bernie Sanders, and Hillary Clinton are now for various crimes.

No wonder Feel the Bern can afford all those mansions!