Last time around the The 2012 US presidential election betting thread was created over 18 months in advance of the general election. We are already behind schedule.

Trump not to win nomination -750 (5Dimes). The general strategy with political betting is to fade the news cycle. A recent Rasmussen poll found that 57% of Likely Republican Voters now think Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee next year, with 25% who say it’s Very Likely. I don't think we'll find much better odds than this.

Rubio nomination +600 (Bovada). I predict Trump's current popularity is actually increasing the likelihood of a Rubio nomination. Trump's current hard line view on immigration is spilling over into the rest of the field. This will ultimately back the R's into a corner among Hispanic/Asian voters leaving Rubio as the only viable path to general election victory, not to mention his otherwise strong favorability ratings.

Kasich nomination +1150 (5Dimes). His brand of "compassionate conservatism" is now anathema to grassroot Republicans and he will have a difficult time earning the nomination. However there is a lot of time between today and Cleveland. In that time I predict he will become known as "the only reasonable candidate in the field" and will gain popularity among Democrats and Independents. I want a small position in Kasich now that I will most likely unload for a small profit later in the year.

Sanders not to win Nomination -1050 (5Dimes). Like Trump, he has a devout minority following in the Democratic base but is not capable of becoming a party nominee. We will probably be able to get even better odds later, so only buy a tiny share at this price. Sanders will continue to get lots of favorable news coverage because the media needs something to talk about on the Democratic side and right now he's pretty much it.

Biden nomination +800 (Bovada). Hillary has struggled to demonstrate her viability as a candidate. If Biden enters the race (I would put this around 40%) he will immediately become a close contender to win the nomination. His odds will quickly drop so you want to be locked before any announcement.

I feel like sanders to not win the nomination should be more like -3000. Thats a steep price and awfully long time to tie up money though. It seems like now would be the best time to fade trump too and -750 seems good.

I got in on Walker to go all the way at +3300 at the end of January. But, I don't think he's going to get there with the rise of Trump, combined with his debate performance.
Thinking a small flyer on Biden to go all the way may be a decent wager atm.

Anyone have thoughts on why Hillary has dropped to -239 (bookmaker) to win the Democratic nomination?

I saw her at -270 on pinnacle last week and I thought that was already a good price.

Because she's the target of a massive investigation. And she is looking more and more guilty every day. I do like the fade of Sanders at that price though

What are the limits for these?

The limits are very small at most sites right now. 5Dimes is $100 for most accounts. A lot of the non-US site don't list limits. BetVictor had Biden 10/1 and the strategy there is tough. If you bet anything too large it almost always gets declined. I put in $100 on it and after delay it got accepted. Went back next day and tried $150. This time delay was a good 1.5 minutes and comes back saying max bet has been exceeded. Of course doesn't say what the max bet was. Then right away the odds change to 7/1 and there is no chance to bet any amount at the 10/1. Bet365 had shown max bets of $15 to non limited accounts. Some other sites try betting and get countered with an offer that $1.10 is the most they'll accept. So really a not a market can do a lot with.

Updated TomG Total Ballots Power Rankings

R Nom
Rubio 38% +163
Bush 30% +233
Trump 12% +733
Kasich 10% +900
Cruz 5% +1900
Christie 3% +3233
Fiorina 2% +4900
Carson 0% +Infinity


D Nom
Hillary 95% -1900
Indictment 5% +1900


Jeb nomination +370 (5Dimes)
Clinton nomination -690 (5Dimes)
Clinton nomination -890 (Bookmaker)

who is that guy that does better than the ny times guy and the ny times guy went crazy blasting him on twitter last election because everyone wasn't thinking he was the greatest thing ever

nate silver?

he's the NY Times guy right

last election some guy from a university was destroying his picks (and eventually silvers model went towards his, but this guy had it predicted months ahead)

and silver was trashing him on twitter for no reason.

found him - its this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Wang_(neuroscientist)

Nate harassing someone for their methodology when he was blatantly biasing his results with Obama polls is comical.

I miss SwoopAE posting some incredibly dumb things about politics betting. Wonder if he's still posting his scammy record here. (Maybe he uses it to get his alleged sportsbetting job?)

tom if you want to bet bush ill book it. ill book larger sums than you can get down on 5d. i can get vouched for. ill take bush NOT to get republican nomination, bush NOT to win presidential election

wow look at this guy outta nowhere

Sure I'll take Bush +500 (Bovada's current price) for any amount but you have to escrow with Wiper in advance (the only person I trust) within the next 48 hours. I'll do the same.

Bush's campaign is clearly troubled. He has failed to connect with the Republican primary base, his family name is a clear liability, and has high unfavorable ratings in his polling. He very well might drop out of the race if he doesn't finish a strong 2nd in New Hampshire.

That said he is running for the nomination of a party that has a long tradition of nominating the "next in line." It's a pure buy low play.

a day ago you put bush at 30%, are gungho on +370 and now you are explaining to me why +370 is not good enough and need me to give you bovada +500? 5d is +325 now. bookmaker is +245.

ill give you +370. your 3k to my my 11100. i know someone who knows wiper. ill get him to vouch for me. if he vouches for you, we are good to go.

no vouching. will require escrow. if you're legit interested and will escrow with wiper we can work out the terms.

strawman. i can be legit interested and not want to escrow. youd have to be a dummy to want to escrow thousands of dollar for months for no good reason.

is it acceptable with you to escrow bitcoins?

cash escrow or no deal.

agreed it's ridiculous to escrow thousands of dollars for months but without doing so the counter-party risk is too high which is why betting large numbers against strangers over the internet is logistically impossible.

lol im not a stranger. ive been on this forum for over a decade with a pristine reputation. and i can get vouched for. what the problem with bitcoins they are worth billions? can easily set it up so if the value of bitcoins decline i have to replenish escrow or i forfeit my escrow.

if you are afraid to bet on the side you were pushing earlier just say so. its a sharp move sometimes to backdown from a bet when facing heat.

is tomg an angle shooter? who says they like +370 then all of a sudden says that line sucks and they need private action booked on bovada lines at +500 when bookmaker is at +250. lol

wiper runs a trap house and is legit

how about 5dimes can i send money to wiper to escrow on 5dimes or do you want me to rent a private jet and hand deliver the cash to him before midnight tonight

FWIW predictit.org is a prediction market that is legal in the US and has a lot of different lines. Max risk is $850 in any particular contract.

damn tomg this guy came out swingin