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2016/2017 NCAA - Alan Boston Twitter Picks 2016/2017 NCAA - Alan Boston Twitter Picks

12-02-2016 , 12:27 PM
11/27/2016

Miami +3 - LOSER
San Francisco -1 - LOSER
Northeastern -3 (-120) - PUSH
North Florida +7 - LOSER

11/29/2016
Tennessee State +7 - LOSER
Tennessee Martin -4 - LOSER
Columbia +1 - LOSER

11/30/2016
Western Michigan +7 (-120) - WINNER
Austin Peay +7 - WINNER
Eastern Kentucky +1 - WINNER
Indiana +5.5 - WINNER

12/1
Cincinnati +7.5 (Even) - WINNER


YTD 28-27-2
2016/2017 NCAA - Alan Boston Twitter Picks Quote
12-02-2016 , 08:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa!
Fire until full. If getting faded creates a sense of dread rather than excitement then you need more confidence and/or a better model.
What kind of absolute error and and mean squared error do you have from your model compared to the line? I'm curious how some of the best private models stack up vs the line and the public models posted on thepredictiontracker.com
2016/2017 NCAA - Alan Boston Twitter Picks Quote
12-03-2016 , 02:49 AM
I'm sure the guy's model is way better than anything available publically (not hard to build at all for any major sport). The only thing that worries me about this sport is that the players aren't paid (much) unless they are shaving points or passing info yet limits are pretty high. Fading big moves a recipe for disaster imo but if you're such a sick crusher maybe it doesn't matter.
2016/2017 NCAA - Alan Boston Twitter Picks Quote
12-03-2016 , 11:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The IRS
I'm sure the guy's model is way better than anything available publically (not hard to build at all for any major sport). The only thing that worries me about this sport is that the players aren't paid (much) unless they are shaving points or passing info yet limits are pretty high. Fading big moves a recipe for disaster imo but if you're such a sick crusher maybe it doesn't matter.
The limits are pretty small. I'm a big poor with a ****ty model and I can move the lines in this sport. Half the games move 5+pts this time of year anyway, I'm sure a good model can fade the market profitably. Most of these guys are too dumb to be able to successfully shave pts, though it's certainly happened. I see way less ******ed **** compared to some european leagues.
2016/2017 NCAA - Alan Boston Twitter Picks Quote

      
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