so f brutal

So that last pass to Kearse sucked...

4-3 -0.07u on the above

19-18 +1.36u YTD

I think that classifies as a bad beat losing the Jermaine Kearse prop. He had one reception on a fluke play that Wilson was almost sacked on that went for 34 yards. Then had no others. Seattle is sitting 3rd and 2 and makes a first down and can take knees and game is over. Odds it ends up being a pass to Kearse for 26 yards or more? ends with a 50-yard pass play to him.

Love the outcome of the game here though. Early in the week Browns were +316 on ML while Chargers -7.5 was the spread, and Seattle was -9.5. Did 7-point teasers everywhere that would let me while buying off the Chargers side. Then all week had hit Lions betting +10 -114, +10.5 -120, +11.5 -125. Today took Lions ML +475, Seattle to win by 1-6 +479, and Seattle to win by 1-3 +750. Hit everything. Icing on the cake is I was scared at half time with Lions +10 to +11.5 being my biggest bets. I tried betting at Pinnacle, Seattle -3.5 second half, and there was some glitch. Tried different browsers etc. kept saying my account didn't have enough money which wasn't true. Then tried betting in-play and kept getting line moved, line moved. Never managed to buy off any of it and as the game got late I was like screw it just sat and watching. wasn't at ease until the scoop and score, but was relaxed as can be after that. Another great ending because Seattle by exactly 3 was my highest paying outcome. Best NFL weekend of my life.

I discussed this on another forum back before Week 3 was played that I think there is a chance Seattle opens 10 point favorites and if so I will be all over Detroit. Guys i discussed it with thought the spread wouldn't get to 10, and would be Seattle -9 or -9.5. Actually thought gained stock after Week 3 but market seen it otherwise. BUT I ended up not sure here later. Lions I thought would come in healthy here, but must have been lying on injury report. How does Pettigrew start week 3 injury report as questionable but then still miss Week 4 played on a Monday, etc. But whatever worked out awesome.

Sea dominated the play outgaining Det by almost 100 yards. They didn't take care of the ball though and were unable to score points.

50 of those yards came on the final play of the game where Detroit had to stop them from getting 2 yards or game was over. The other 48 yards didn't matter. They picked up a lot of additional yards such as the 34 to Kearse on a broken play. But even ignoring that before the final play it was 256 yards to 295 yards. Seattle -9.5 tough beat, Seattle -10 think was wrong side IMO (posting that before seeing what you bet).

Was a page back, just seen your -9.5 -107. Yeah that's a tough beat.

In this thread ignoring totals & props etc, I didn't do well on. Looking at point spread bets only I posted 7 of them and none lost. 6-0-1. The push was sorta tough one on Steelers +3 on Thursday night, Tomlin, Field Goals. etc. But did get lucky on some others.

So much for props doing anything to pad my record (been getting crushed on them)... on everything tracked always as to win 1.

3-3 -0.68 on tonights game
YTD: 28-28-3 -4.00

Lots to do. In the unlikely chance I get some free time, I'll try to do a break out and track by categories. At minimum I'll start noting the breakdown in future weeks, even if just keeping with a running total overall.

True but if it wasn't for sea's 3 fumbles 2 of which were recoveted by Det we likely have a different outcome. I do kinda agree though that sea was the wrong side as they had a lot more trouble scoring then I expected. I just think it's a little flukey when a team covers due to a late TO

By the way congrats to people that had Det.

Tough loss grump, sorry if my excitement comes off wrong at all. I'm just on cloud 9 here excited. Posting I think I had won these ones, but I'm betting five figures most game and doesn't really follow the same as posting on money won/lost. Week 1 and Week 2 were like spinning wheels. Week 3 was just short of gut wrenching, like I shook it off but was like man that is bordering the can't stomach it type of losses. To win 6* what I lost last week in a 24 hour period, I'm just like floating and couldn't contain it. Certainly not meaning to rub in anyone's loss on the night games.

Good luck guys, let's get that Week 5 money

Looks like Lions Moneyline bettors got screwed too. NFL Vice President of Officiating says the refs blew the call. It was an illegal bat - but this is not reviewable and has to be called on the field, it is a judgement call. But he says from the replay the correct call was Lions keep the ball, with penalty enforced half distance to goal. They'd have been 1st and goal with inches to go if the correct call was made.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/10/...calvin-johnson

This shows the ref clearly watching the bat.

I'm with you. I expect to be riding the Lions the next 3-4 weeks.

Congrats

why id you bet seattle to win by 1-3 and 1-6? arent those typically heavily juiced and fishy?

Week 4
6-4 +0.55u

Season
14-19 -7.535u

Yeah you're right, obviously bad plays. It's be a while since I did that. Years ago, I routinely would do big middles and realize later I screwed up the math and have -18% EV, and had one of those moments.

I was coming off a monster Sunday and had large bets on:

Lions +10, +10.5, and +11.5

Seattle -2.5 -291 effective odds (but tickets returned at -130, as that was obtained via teaser w/ buying off other side).

Seen 5dimes have +475 on ML and bet that too.

The 1-3 just fit as it was insurance from having the Lions ML +475 / Seattle -2.5 -291 middle while giving me an additional big middle on the 3. I also though Lions ML was live I didn't bet that to hedge the Seattle play - I'd have bet that on its own.

The 1-6 don't have much explanation for. This was all in the moment and an obviously bad bet. This and the 1-3 were bet just before kickoff as see them and bet, without giving either much thought. Both were made on position I had at time. But really no calculator needed to know they were bad bets. Just caught up in moment at the time.

happens to the best of us

Week 4 MNF: 2-0 +2 units
YTD: 11-15 -1.9175 units

40-25+89.79
Philly-3 12.73 units l-14
Jets-1-113 .88 units w+.88
Jets o42.5 3.64 units l-4
Cards o43-113 .88 units w+.89
Tampa+3-106 7.55 units l-8
Gmen+5.5-114 4 units w+4
Jags+9.5-129 3.88 units w+3.88
Caro o39.5 3.64 units w+3.64
Gb-2/sd-1/5-110 4 units w+4
Jets o42.5-107 2.8 units l-3
Colts o21.5-117 2h 2.56 units l-3
Rams+7.5-131 3.82 units w+3.82
Boys+3.5-121 9.92 units l-12
Denver-3.5-115 6.96 units l-8
Sea-9.5-107 10 units l-12.7
7-8-43.59
47-33+46.2

It's cool it was just painful to see the cover disappear so late in the game as I lost several big games in the 4th.