2013-2014 NBA Season Picks and Discussion Thread - Sports Betting

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2013-2014 NBA Season Picks and Discussion Thread

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10-29-2013 , 03:33 AM

just_mo

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Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Ahhhh here we go... the best time of the year, NBA time!

Magic +11.5/Pacers -11.5
Bulls +4.5/Heat -4.5
Clips -8.5/Lakers +8.5

Have at it.

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10-29-2013 , 03:36 AM

springzz

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 4,851

took MIA - 4.5

noah is banged up. kirk is banged up. thinking boozer comes out rusty.

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10-29-2013 , 05:10 PM

just_mo

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Magic +12

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10-29-2013 , 06:01 PM

SwoopAE

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If okc or the clippers can destroy the heat this year i will be so happy

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10-29-2013 , 06:30 PM

wiper

still catching up

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 42,897

bovada has the following prop...

Quote:

2013-2014 Regular Season - Total Games Played - Greg Oden (MIA)

Must play in 20 Games for action. Stats according to NBA.com

30½(-115)o
30½(-115)u

the bold is obviously the important part.

so if i'm reading that right, if you bet the over, the only amount of games that beats you is 20-30.

and if he plays 20, isn't he very, very likely to play 31??

i think you only have like 30 minutes to bet it, because it goes off the board once the first game tips off at 7:05pm, but this seems like a bet where it's probably pretty likely to be no-actioned, which reduces your exposure a TON if you're betting over.

i just bet it, you probably should too in the next 35 minutes.

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10-29-2013 , 08:01 PM

OTPCook

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 132

Thanks! Just bet it. Too bad bovada has such low limits on player props...

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10-29-2013 , 08:42 PM

wiper

still catching up

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 42,897

i'm gonna eventually call them to see if it's gonna get cancelled. they obv just kept the "must play 20 games" stipulation b/c every season long player prop had it, and them cancelling it in april would be tilting.

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10-29-2013 , 09:46 PM

just_mo

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Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

Magic +12

Whew crazy game, looked like a lock most of the game, back and forth through 3 quarters...then we needed a corner 3 on the last possession to cover -_-

1-0, +1u

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10-29-2013 , 10:04 PM

wiper

still catching up

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 42,897

bovada also has a 'will kyrie irving play o/u 69.5 games' prop, and the games played stipulation is 5. but his points per game and assists per game is 20 games minimum. def gonna call lol

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10-29-2013 , 10:45 PM

#10

springzz

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 4,851

Quote:

Originally Posted by springzz

took MIA - 4.5

noah is banged up. kirk is banged up. thinking boozer comes out rusty.

boozer 31 pts on 13/18 shooting

1-0

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10-29-2013 , 11:50 PM

#11

OTPCook

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 132

Quote:

Originally Posted by wiper

bovada also has a 'will kyrie irving play o/u 69.5 games' prop, and the games played stipulation is 5. but his points per game and assists per game is 20 games minimum. def gonna call lol

It's funny. STAT and Bynum have the 5 game stipulation for games played but Varejao has the 20-game stip. I suspect they'll leave it.

In 2008, I bet Jonathan Papelbon and Manny Corpas over/under ERA bets but they both had the stip that they "must start 25 games". Both were closers, never started a game, and never where in consideration to start a game. I assumed that they meant "must pitch in 25 games" but they held to that start stip and no actioned everything. Customer support was not much help.

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10-30-2013 , 04:28 AM

#12

springzz

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 4,851

wednesday

Dallas -5.5

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10-30-2013 , 08:35 AM

#13

heehaww

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,081

I wanted to work on a handicapping system before the season started, never got a chance to. But still excited it has begun! GL all!

Bucks +8 -- 1/2
Wizards +3 -- 1/4

Gonna take Pelicans but my bookie has it at 1.5 even though every online book has it at 2, so I'll wait a bit.

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10-30-2013 , 01:42 PM

#14

RaiseOrRaise

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 129

Hi guys!

So glad that the NBA season is back, it means $$$

Yestarday I went 5-1, and from now, I'll post my picks here if I'll have time for it...

Today I play :

Nuggets - Kings ...OVER 205,5

Okc - Utah ...OVER 193,5

Boston - Toronto ...OVER 189,5

I was thinking about playing Pelicans +2, and after checking all the stats and factors, I got pretty confident about it, so

Pacers - Pelicans ...+2Pelicans

Any thoughts?

GL everyone! $$$

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10-30-2013 , 04:06 PM

#15

just_mo

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Wow this is sick, was gonna bet Pelicans +2.5 figured I'd wait since I expected public to pile on Indiana...it's -1.5 now! Also figured Utah line would move towards OKC but it dropped a half point, sadly.

Bobcats/Rox u202
Jazz +6
Suns +5.5
Mavs/Hawks o196
Lakers/Dubs o203

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10-30-2013 , 06:00 PM

#16

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Betting into WA, liquid numbers is the new steam chasing.

Nuggets +2.5 -106 (1%)

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10-30-2013 , 06:22 PM

#17

RaiseOrRaise

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 129

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

Betting into WA, liquid numbers is the new steam chasing.

Nuggets +2.5 -106 (1%)

Why do you feel like picking Denver, against a young and competitive Sacramento, who can beat any team on a good dayat home...
Opening game, they'll be pumped up, I'd never ever make this bet...

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10-30-2013 , 06:23 PM

#18

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

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young, competitive, pumped up, something to prove, out there having fun

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10-30-2013 , 06:29 PM

#19

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by RaiseOrRaise

Why do you feel like picking Denver, against a young and competitive Sacramento, who can beat any team on a good dayat home...
Opening game, they'll be pumped up, I'd never ever make this bet...

I use a math model called "The Dunleavy" and bet whenever the line it generates is a lot different than the markets. I didn't even bother to back test it though so you may be right, and I certainly wouldn't advise tailing these picks.

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10-30-2013 , 06:29 PM

#20

heehaww

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,081

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

Wow this is sick, was gonna bet Pelicans +2.5 figured I'd wait since I expected public to pile on Indiana...it's -1.5 now!

I feel your pain, brotha

Quote:

Originally Posted by heehaww

Gonna take Pelicans but my bookie has it at 1.5 even though every online book has it at 2, so I'll wait a bit.

Just got home now lol. I guess this early in the season there are those kinds of movements so we shouldn't play the greed game.

Wondering if I should still take em at -1.5 ...

edit -- screw it, 1/4 unit on moneyline -115

They were gonna be my biggest bet but I F'd up

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10-30-2013 , 06:55 PM

#21

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

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nets u194.5? freest money ever i think

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10-30-2013 , 07:03 PM

#22

RaiseOrRaise

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 129

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

nets u194.5? freest money ever i think

At first glance, I thought as well it is gonna be under... But it pretty much depends on Clevelands offense... Nets will score over 100 I'm quite sure about it, but if the Cavs will have a good shooting day, this game will easily go over the 200's

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10-30-2013 , 07:06 PM

#23

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

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Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

10/30 07:06 PM 193½ -105 193½ -105
10/30 07:01 PM 194 +100 194 -110
10/30 07:01 PM 194½ +103 194½ -114
10/30 06:55 PM 194½ +100 194½ -110
10/30 06:47 PM 194½ -102 194½ -108

we did it tho