Not sour, just laughing. The line movement coming in on the under has to do with Utley and Howard being out. rsigley if you think the line movement shows you how smart you are good for you. Utley didn't play until May 23rd last year. I thought Howard wasn't worth a lot of wins.

The thing I said that seems to have pissed rsigley off is when I questioned how do you model an aggressive general manager who if things aren't going well will go out and overspend for an above average player who will have an effect upon your win total. I'm not going to requote rsigley but:

average player > Worley. Really?

you use ERA?

Polanco couldn't hit last year either.

And you forgot to mention Roy Halladay's velocity is down.

The Malaysian Grand Prix ended up with a 66-1 underdog in a crappy car beating a 300-1 underdog who basically (and pretty expertly) threw the race because the 66-1 underdog's team supplies engines to the 300-1 underdog's team. They both benefited from the rain. I'm sure that kind of stuff was in the Super System. I didn't see the post in time or I would have warned people that it was going to rain.

Good luck to everyone with your baseball bets this season.

oh and except it opened at 93 before utley was known and when people thought howard were coming back on 5/1

and yes because there's rain obviously no one should bet it and i'm sure that wasn't reflected in taking fastest lap field +3300 or whatever it was. consistently beating closing markets in nascar/formula1 but insane amounts must mean nothing because lose
i'm sure vance worley will continue his 0.68 hr/9 since citizens bank is a pitchers park. i think the problem is phillies people are so mad because they spend so much money and can't buy championships and get lied to all the time that their team is going to be great

Lol
Without looking nothing up I assume phillies are world series favorites because all the other top 5 teams are in the AL

Online the first I saw was betonline, they opened philly at 95.5, looks like they opened feb 19

1st regular season game tomrrow, gl all

SEA -130, 1.3u

General baseball question for those who cap it: If you could only use a single stat to compare pitchers for sports betting (MLs) purposes, what would it be?

Thanks in advance.

2012 MLB
Totals: 0-0, +0.00u
Sides: 0-0, +0.00u
Overall: 0-0, +0.00u

Wagers will all be to win X units, where X is ≤ 2

3/28
OAK +124, 1.01u
SEA O7 (+102), 0.43u

dmx is there a sport u dont bet lol

i havent really bet MLB before with any consistency. i have a few idea im working on that seem potentially profitable. we will see how it goes.

what else am i suppose to do all summer?

It means nothing when you crush the closing lines because limits are tiny and you have a following at 2p2. No matter how you good or bad you are at modeling Nascar you will always crush the closing lines with current limits and the risgley feeders tailing.

teh game is rigged.

also I have too many 5dimes accounts, come at me bro.

after today, maybe MLB should be the one...

FIP projections to start the season then switch to SIERA/xFIP after a few starts.

FIP does not take into account ballpark so all pitchers are on a level playing field, correct?

Yes

why no team totals at pinny?

because japan is weird.

NL West Winner: Arizona DiamondBacks @ 2.70

Looking at season player props, Bodog is scum.

The standard write-up on HR bets:
Player must start season on active roster. Position players must play 130 games for action, starting pitchers must start 25 games, relief pitchers must not spend any time on the DL. Wager will have action if target has been reached without playing the minimum number of games. If player switches leagues or teams, stats will be combined.

The write-up for Chipper Jones HR bet:
Player must start season on active roster. Wager will have action if target has been reached without playing the minimum number of games. If player switches leagues or teams, stats will be combined.

Notice the bolded part is missing. So I'm thinking, this is a pretty good bet for the under. He's hurt, old, and 14.5 is a big enough number. But before I hit it, I email them just to make sure that the 130 games does not apply. They reply saying that the minimum games listed applies to everyone, blah blah blah, don't address why that bet doesn't list it, etc. So I email back and ask why it's not the same statement on every bet across the board? They reply with a standard copy of my inquiries will be taken into consideration etc.

Pretty low on their part, i thought.

2012 MLB
1-0, +1u

4/4/2012
Miami -180, 1u

Added:
4/5/2012

Atlanta -105, 1.05u
Pitt, +175
Miami, +140 (I'm a fish and got a bad line here)
LA D, -155

Cardinals vs Marlins - Cardinals @ 2.51

I took the over tonight o7 for 1.1u (-110)

jays -116 looks good

when does slowdog usually have their lines up?

I'm gona attempt to cap MLB itt. For troller's purposes I'm gona put all my bets in a spoiler box, I don't want anyone going broke seeing these picks.

4/4:
STL +161, 1.09u
STL O7 (-114), .41u

2012 MLB
Totals: 0-1, -0.42u
Sides: 0-1, -0.81u
Overall: 0-2, -1.23u